analysis

A Fractured Polity where Indo Canadians  Swing
Gobind Thukral

Canadians in their collective wisdom struck to their previous 2004 model and threw up a fractured verdict. Call it a cautious balance, they separated Liberals from power, but did not grant the Conservatives the strength to push the country Bush ward. A weak Conservative minority government with an uncertain future could hardly push its agenda. Yet this kind of arrangement is always dicey. Parties would be pressed hard to remain on the middle path, dithering, opportunistic and bargaining all the time for survival. They often camouflage their agenda or try for tricky balance. It is slippery path for any democratic polity. Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin thought that the stink of the payoff scandal would not spoil his chances and he could muster majority on his own and thus push his political agenda. The voters thought the Liberals were not that honest and moved towards the Conservatives and also towards the Left wing New Democratic Party. Block Quebecois keeping their fort in Quebec. The result no one has the majority or in other words a clear mandate to push a particular agenda.

It is true that Canadians have denied the tainted Liberals a chance to rule, but they have imposed onerous conditions on Conservatives and their 46-year-old leader Stephan Harper. They gave Liberals and the resurgent NDP the strength to defeat this minority, a dynamic that makes the Bloc Quebecois the wildcard and should make Canadians breathe easier about any of neo-conservative threat to their social values.

During the 2006 Canadian federal election or  the 39th General Election to the 308 member House of Commons, the Conservatives  won 36.25 per cent votes and  124 - up 25 seats from 99 in 2004. their vote share increased by 7.per cent from 29.6 per cent  in the 2004 election. This will be the smallest minority government in terms of the percentage of seats held by the governing party in Canada since  Confedration. The outgoing Liberals who wasted precsious time during camopaign as they were sure of vicotory got 103 seats and 30.22 per cwnt votes.  BQ from qubeciois got 51 seats and 10.48 per cent share. New democrats imrpoved their share of votes and seats. They have 29 seats and 17.49 per cent votes. Others got no seats, but 5.05 per cent votes.

The NDP's recovery marks the first time it has been able to win more seats after co-operating with a Liberal minority. Layton emerges stronger and with a party anxious to argue that it is the strengthening voice of Canada's defining social values.

Electoral arithmetic as presented in the number of seats won and percentage of votes unmistakably proves that old value system of health care, social security and keeping a respectable distance from the big brother America are part of the valued path. Any deviation would bring the government down. In fact, there are many similarities between the Liberals and NDP and a coalition of interests should not be ruled, particularly when the find the Conservatives look gaining popularity.

No one is sure that the Conservatives who now have a limited opportunity to prove that a narrow, regionally rooted Reform movement of 1987 could be pushed to the broad national level. Meanwhile, voters have set a mixed agenda as the opinion polls showed.

• Getting tougher on sentences for crime, especially crime committed with handguns, which won 88 per cent support. Reforming the Senate by holding elections for vacancies rather than having the prime minister appoint people, who was supported by 71 per cent of those polled. 22 per cent of respondents named health care. 10 per cent spoke of honesty, ethics or accountability in government. Six per cent said the economy was of primary importance. Five per cent named taxes or tax cuts.

Harper has indeed united the Right wing, but has also dragged the party towards the center when he forced Martin's resignation. Now he has to demonstrate that this limited success will continue to rocket upwards. There are serious doubts. In any case cabinet formation and real time governance will show it incoming weeks. But Canada does not have to worry about any secret agenda that the Liberals insisted Conservatives have. Conservative’s hold on power is simply too unsteady to authorize any wild deviations from the consensual path. That's the balance voters opted for change with a little risk.

Punjabis Make their Mark

Indians may not beat the Chinese either in numbers or in business, yet they outclass that largest of the immigrant communities from Asia in Canadian public life. January 23 elections have brought in ten Indians; more precisely eight Punjabis to the House of Commons perched atop the Grand Ottawa River. They come from each of the poliical spectrum; the Conervatives , Liberals and the New Democratic Party.

Yet this mid term election during which one of them former federal Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh played a significant role was not all about the numbers.  Punjabi is the third most widely used language after the two official languages, English and French. Nearly half of the Canadians speak other than English back home. What is true about the Parliament is also true about most of the provinces, particularly Ontario and British Columbia   where Indo-Canadians are already a fact of the public life.

Indo-Canadians are by and large support either the Liberals or NDP. Former has successfully marketed the idea that it was pro immigrants and believed in social justice, though there are serious doubts about. The latter party is definitely pro immigrant and pro poor and its commitments too are crystal clear. It made Dosanjh as its Premier of British Columbia, the first time an Asian immigrant rose to that position. During the last 12 years of uninterrupted Liberal rule, Indo-Canadian ministers, MPs and other party community leaders at all the levels have been more discernible and vocal. Also, the profile of Indo Canadians is fast changing from mere workers to professional and business people.

During the past ten years or so, Punjabis have been making their cultural presence felt and trying to integrate in the multi cultural milieu and influence the mainstream groups and even pursue the foreign policy agenda, though in restricted sense. During his last visit to India, Prime Minister Paul Martin offered to use his good offices to help India and Pakistan sort out the tangled web of Kashmir.  Dosanjh had some role in that.

The veterans are back to the Commons, where they are already well-recognised faces. Gurbax Malhi, who was first elected in 1993, has made fifth time from Gore-Malton in Ontario. He has not lost any election despite the white majority. It is his sympathetic style and down to earth approach.

Malhi who hails Punjab played an active part for organising the tercentenary of the Khalsa in Parliament six years ago. The Baisakhi celebrations are part of the cultural of North America now. Indore-educated Deepak Obhrai, a fourth-time winner who came to Canada three decades ago and Ujjal Dosanjh, Health Minister in the previous Liberal government have made their mark as highly articulate leaders of the community.

The outcome of elections since 1993 has shown that the million-strong Indo-Canadian communities, half of them Punjabis have established themselves in public life.  Signs of which were visible in the famous Kama Gata Maru, a symbol of free struggle even since a small group of their ancestors immigrated towards the end of the 19th century. They struggle hard and struggled valiantly against the hostile reception that Asians faced. They endured hardships and fought against economic, political and social exploitations. They were able to win the right to vote only in 1947.They continue to do so in various ways.

Herb Dhaliwal was appointed in 1997 as Federal Revenue Minister, Indo-Canadians hailed the choice as historic for their community. Later, Ujjal Dosanjh got a much coveted health portfolio.  After the January election, the talk among Conservatives, the new minority ruling party, centers around whom among the South Asian MPs will be in the Stephen Harper’s Cabinet. It is another matter that the fate of the Conservatives would be similar to that of the Liberals. Harper indeed would be working towards next elections in mind.