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Issue 9 Vol I, February 15, 2006comment Politicians
Blight Green Revolution
And see, what is happening. For the entire year the Indian government kept claiming that there was enough wheat, some 72 million tones, to feed more than a billion people and thus there was no need to import wheat. But now when our new wheat crop is maturing so well the government has after much dilly-dallying decided to import wheat not realizing that this could hit the prices in the harvesting months when new crop arrives. The decision, analysts point out, would have had the desired impact if the government had sought imports around November-December. Indeed it is ironical that from a position of surplus, India is now headed towards a hand-to-mouth situation. Especially when a couple of years back it was said that the country’s wheat exports are likely to get a boost. Why cannot we have a more skilful management of our food grain? Faced with a situation like this, one is forced to think whether the Green Revolution was actually a success after all. As per data available, it is in Asia, precisely where Green Revolution seeds have contributed to the greatest production success that roughly two-thirds of the undernourished in the entire world live. But the reason for this is not that we do not produce enough to feed the country’s ever-growing population. Instead as mentioned in the Business Week magazine, "even though Indian granaries are overflowing now," thanks to the success of the Green Revolution in raising wheat and rice yields, "5,000 children die each day of malnutrition. One-third of India's 900 million people are poverty-stricken." Since the poor can't afford to buy what is produced, "the government is left trying to store millions of tonnes of food. Some is rotting, and there is concern that rotten grain will find its way to public markets." The article concludes that the Green Revolution may have reduced India's grain imports substantially, but did not have a similar impact on hunger.
But that does not in any way reflect that everyone’s plate is full. For the famine, from being a calamity of the natural order, has turned into a calamity of the social order. Just another example of the ever-present anarchy in capitalism, the economic system based on the ownership of the means of life by the few and a society that holds the world enslaved. It is only under capitalism that conditions arise where hoarders, speculators, and black marketers of every nationality can flourish on the one hand, and be the social complement of starvation, unemployment, squalor, disease and poverty on the other. Coming to the present situation that the country is facing today, one can blame the government’s procurement system or mismanagement of the grain economy. Traders had been expecting India, a wheat exporter in recent years, to order imports after procurement fell but government officials said they were confident they could get by. In the international market too the strong speculation that India might have to import wheat has come true. And for the first time in six years, following a drop in output to 72 million tonnes from the estimated 79 million tonnes in 2005 owing to erratic weather, India had to resort to imports. However, analysts said the grain would be arriving at the wrong time and would fail to lower prices. Since the granaries will begin filling from mid-March with summer crop arrivals from major consuming states such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. And now the country is faced with a crisis situation. And despite the government releasing additional stocks in the market, the prices have not come down with the highest hike in the southern states. Wheat prices in south Indian markets were around 1,100 rupees ($24.86) to 1,200 rupees per 100 kg, compared with close to 900 rupees in rest of the country. The Congress-led coalition government has already lost its hold in Bihar and Karnataka too has lipped away. It had very little chance to retain Kerala and no chance to win back West Bengal. And with the kind of inflation that has hit the south, it is sure to impact the forthcoming elections in several states including the opposition-ruled Tamil Nadu in the south. The last thing the Congress party wants ahead of provincial elections. On the other hand, local wheat prices continue to rise on eroding stocks. Wheat prices in India have raised more than 1,000 rupees a tonne over the past year. According to traders the government's announcement was a gimmick designed to bring down prices, a tactic used in the past. And now the analysts have criticized the government’s decision to import wheat at this point. “The decision is too late and too little. What is 500,000 tonnes in a country which consumes 74 million tonnes,” Mumbai-based commodities experts say. Moreover it takes 60 days for the grain to reach our ports which means it will be April by the time the grain reaches, thus coinciding with the start of the local harvest. Late arrivals may not solve the purpose. Official estimates have pegged the current Rabi or summer wheat crop, to be harvested late March onwards at 74-75 million tonnes, up from previous year’s 72 million tonnes. Of this the government expects to procure 16 million tonnes, ten per cent higher as compared to 14.78 million tonnes an year ago. Last year procurement fell as market pries rose more than the support price level and farmers were happy selling the grains to the private companies who had sensed shortage right in the beginning. The government with its vast network through Food Corporation and state-run grain agencies should have known this and accordingly raised the support price so that more grain comes to its silos. “We are getting a bumper crop, but I do not want to take any risks if the crop is delayed or if procurement is delayed," said the farms minister Sharad Pawar. The Food Corporation of India would be left with just about 500,000 tonnes of wheat stocks as on April 1, much lower than the normal requirement of about 4 million tonnes. The country had wheat stocks of around 4.7 million tonnes on Feb. 1. India's wheat crop is sown in November and December and harvesting begins in April in the main northern growing states of Punjab and Haryana. Harvesting for the early grown varieties in Madhya Pradesh begins in late February. According to the preliminary estimates, Punjab is expected to contribute maximum to the Central pool as usual with 8.5 million tonnes of wheat followed by Haryana with 4.2 million tonnes and Uttar Pradesh with 2.5 million tonnes. Other states, which contribute to wheat procurement for the Central pool, are Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttaranchal. It is high time other sates especially in the southern part of the country also started growing wheat to meet their demand. After all Punjab and Haryana cannot go on feeding the entire country for years, now that the wheat consumption in these states is swelling. Though the government claims a bumper crop this year, the weather in the past week with temperatures climbing sharply is likely to impact the wheat output for the second year in a row. Thus opening the floodgates to wheat imports. But worse it the policy failure and poor spending on farm sector for the past two decades since the so-called economic reform that began in 1991. The annual agriculture sector growth has not touched more than 2 per cent. In fact, it had been on the minus side. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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SOUTH ASIA POST INC. |
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WE
were assured that the Green Revolution is a success and India does not need
even a single grain to import to feed its millions. The rulers were also
certain that we could export our golden grain; the wheat and India achieved
that distinction a few years ago. Imagine a country where some millions died
during the 1943 Bengal Famine could be a wheat surplus country. The only
problem, the experts opined was how to feed millions of those below the
poverty line. This people who were either hungry or malnourished. As food
grains rotted in the government godowns, the poor who had no money to buy died
in thousands of villages and urban slums. This is the only issue and
India could remain food surplus country despite endemic corruption in the food
gain procurement, storage and distribution.
But
one can safely say that though malnutrition and hunger remain widespread in
India, there have been no famines since the end of the British rule. The
increase in food to the population is also reflected in the fact that in the
50 years of British rule (1891 to 1941) the population grew by 35% (from 287
million to 389 million) whereas in the 50 years of democratic rule from 1951
to 2001 the population grew by 183% (from 363 million to 1,023 million). The
fact that there have been no famines even with a population that has almost
tripled makes it an even more impressive achievement for the democratic
government.