| Issue 21 Vol I, August 15, 2006 | Archive |
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Wheat and Paddy Rotation is the Optimal Cropping Pattern for Punjab
1. An effectively functioning minimum support prices and assured purchase programme (MSPAP) exists only for wheat and paddy and will be sustained because of the national food security compulsion. However, a similar MSPAP cannot be created for the alternative crops which are supposed to replace wheat. The fiscal deficit and budgetary compulsions of the central government and WTO rules do not allow the creation of such a MSPAP in the public sector. Private sector firms cannot create such a MSPAP for the alternative crops because of the huge subsidy involved in running such a system. Without MSPAP commercial production of no crop can be sustained for long. 2. None of the alternative crops being recommended to replace wheat and rice can ensure even half the income being earned by farmers from wheat and paddy cultivation. Any sizeable reduction in area under wheat and paddy will result in a big fall in farmer’s income. 3. The high value crops (vegetables etc.) being recommended to replace wheat and paddy cannot succeed on a large scale i.e. on 10 lakh hectares of land to be shifted out of wheat and paddy, because of the following: (a) Market for these crops is very thin and gets saturated easily resulting in price crash; thus causing untold misery to farmers. (b) The yield of these crops is very uncertain and fluctuates widely from year to year. In the absence of any effective insurance cover vegetable cultivation on a large scale cannot be sustained. (c) Marketing and processing arrangements for these crops do not exist and cannot be created quickly because huge investment and organizational resources are needed for that. (d) An average farmer is not familiar with the cultivation, culture routines of these crops. The learning of these routines is a long and tedious task, beyond the capacity of an average farmer. (e) MSPAP for these crops does not exist, cannot be created quickly in the public or private sectors. 4. The stability of wheat and paddy yields is not matched by any other crop. These two crops never fail the farmer; even in bad year wheat and paddy yield falls only marginally. These two are the only crops that can be cultivated on a large scale even without an insurance cover because of the great stability of their yield. 5. Wheat and paddy cultivation in Punjab has a high degree of complementarily with country’s food security. Owing to its food security compulsion, the central government would be willing to do everything to sustain the cultivation of these two crops. But such an active support from central government cannot be expected in the case of alternative crops, because such crops are not vital for country’s food security. 6. All assessment of food balance in the country indicate India will be barely self sufficient in food production up to 2050. So the marketing prospects for Punjab’s surplus wheat and rice are assured for the next few decades. 7. Punjab has a clear comparative advantage in wheat and rice production within the Indian domestic market. Yield per hectare, net financial return per hectare, net financial return per man-day are highest in Punjab among the Indian states. 8. Punjab’s wheat and rice are even internationally competitive once a level playing field is created by the elimination of rich country subsidies. 9. Punjab farmers have become experts in wheat and paddy cultivation culture due to their long experience. It will be very difficult for them to quickly acquire the same degree of expertise in other crop cultures. 10. Double cropping on almost the entire cultivated area is possible only with wheat-paddy rotation, because of the relatively short duration of these crops and the nice dovetailing of their sowing and harvesting operations. 11. Wheat yield in 20 per cent higher and cost of production of wheat 20 per cent lower in case of paddy sown lands. The present level of wheat yield in the state cannot be maintained without paddy being its Kharif rotation partner. 12. Wheat-paddy rotation also scores over the alternatives in terms of lower cost of land preparation and harvesting of the crops. Paddy fields can be sown with wheat through even zero-tilling machines, because the land is free from weeds. Same harvesting combine is used to harvest both the crops. That is why sowing and harvesting costs are lower in case of wheat-paddy rotation. 13. Wheat-paddy rotation gives the benefit of fallow land (for about 3 months) even with double cropping. Wheat-paddy rotation even permits three crops a year. Alternative crops being proposed do not have these attractive features. 14. Most of the operations in wheat and paddy are already mechanized and the necessary machinery is in place. The alternative crops being proposed (e.g. vegetables) are highly labour intensive and most of the operations in these crops cannot be mechanized. A massive shift to these alternative crops will result in a massive migration of farm labour into Punjab, with all the attendant problems. Moreover, it will put the structural transformation of Punjab agriculture into reverse gear i.e. rather than shifting labour out of agriculture, it will further increase labour employed in agriculture. 15. The fall in water table in central Punjab districts is neither alarming, nor due to paddy cultivation per se. the water consumption requirements of alternative (e.g. sugarcane, cotton-wheat etc.) are the same or even more than wheat-paddy rotation. The fall in water table will be same even if 10 lakh hectare are shifted wheat-paddy to sugarcane, cotton-wheat etc. the real reasons for fall in water table are the following: (a) Double cropping on the entire area by using only tube well water. (b) Diversification of canal water from central Punjab districts to south-western Punjab since 1978 and the resulting reduction in canal irrigated area in central Punjab. (c) Over use of tube well water by farmers because of the free power policy of the government. (d) Absence of any research on reducing the water use in paddy cultivation. (e) Absence of any law regulating the number and spacing of tubewells in the state. (f) Reduced recharging of ground water because of fall in canal irrigated area, brick lining of canal water channels, neglect of village ponds and other traditional recharging mechanisms and absence of any research to enhance the rain harvesting and recharging of ground water. Falling water table can be easily tackled through suitable research and legislation on private tubewells and a proper power pricing policy. |
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Crop
Diversification: Prime Need of Punjab THE economic forces emerging from agro-climatic conditions of the state, evolution of high yielding varieties, market infrastructure, remunerative support price etc. favoured large scale cultivation of wheat and rice in Punjab. Wheat was a traditional crop not having high water requirement and having important crop residue for livestock while rice stormed into cropping pattern of the state with the onset of green revolution. The rice-wheat rotation gained popularity with Punjab farmers not only because it was the most profitable crop rotation but gave assured returns as well. On the other hand, monoculture of rice and wheat has created a number of ecological problems of fall in water table, soil health, and pest resistance, air pollution due to burning of straw etc. Thus the potential areas have already reached at a plateau from where further significant increase would be a miracle in the absence of advancement of production technology. Above all, the production of food grains in excess of demand, fall in their global prices and high cost of maintaining national food stocks are some of the external economic threats to the sustainability of rice and wheat crops on such areas. The diversification of agriculture is therefore essential from rice-wheat system to alternative crop systems and other high value enterprises. Now we have to think of two pronged strategy i.e. firstly, within the existing production system what remedial measures are possible, particularly conserving non-renewable water resource and secondly, what alternative crop system is feasible and to what extent. Rice-Wheat and Water use By exploiting high potential agriculture, this small state has relieved the country from the serious food shortage but the underground water, a precious resource of the state, has been used indiscriminately, causing serious environmental imbalances. The increase in cultivated area, crop intensity and area under water loving crops were purely due to economic considerations irrespective of natural resource endowments particularly water. Suitable water pricing especially through metered system of electricity supply is essential. Political whims should not dominate the economic rationale of the electricity and water use. It is estimated that to produce one kg of grain, paddy requires 4631 liters and wheat as 1030 liters of water. The cotton crop needs as much as 4249 liters of water for one kg output of seed cotton. Therefore, production and even export-import policy of agriculture sector, apart from economic parameters should take a serious view of requirements of natural resources especially water. Due to fall in water table, particularly in the central belt not only the cost of pumping out water has increased but energy as another scarce resource is extensively used. The power required for lifting water from deeper surface is much higher. The electricity is thus getting in short supply. Farmers are also responsible for this water imbalance. On an average, significant rice area in the state is transplanted early, un-recommended long duration varieties of rice crop are adopted on large scale, non-intervention of govt. in the basmati market limiting its area increase the demand for water. Higher intensity and more number of irrigations by farmers are also reported. The farmers need to be educated and even suitable legislative measures may be taken to regulate the planting of rice through rationing power supply and streamlining procurement policy. Various agronomic practices to minimize water requirements, lining of canals and water courses, and recharge of groundwater out of unutilized water are essentially required. Therefore, more the rationalization of water use, the less is need for diversification. Diversification Possibilities Apart from suitable policy issues of regulating water farmers’ undesirable practices, there is strong need for diversification and the areas which need to be encroached upon are encouraging alternative traditional crops and shift towards high value crops. Scope of Traditional Crops: Crop diversification through less water using crops need to be encouraged in different agro-climatic conditions with the help of effective support price. Apart from being the least risky crops in terms of yield and prices, the average profitability of paddy in kharif season and wheat in rabi season is higher as compared to their competing alternatives. To encourage diversification in the cropping patterns, this gap in profitability needs to be brought down either by increasing productivity of competing crops through technological improvement or by price incentives or by both, which, however, appear to be less likely to happen in the short run. Alternatively, those pockets are identified where the productivity of paddy is below 32q/ha, at which other alternatives such as maize, mash, moong, desi cotton, groundnut etc. become equally profitable. Similarly, break-even yield of wheat is 30q/ha, at which the cultivation of barley, gram, and field-peas becomes economically competitive. For instance, the average productivity of rice varies significantly from 1921 kg/ha in Gandiwind block of Amritsar district to 4786 kg/ha in Dehlon block of Ludhiana. However, the price support mechanism announced for these alternative crops needs to be made more effective through their easy market clearance by the government or by institutionalization of the contract farming in such areas. Therefore, in order to diversify the crop patterns of the state, 15 blocks each in semi-hilly and central regions with about 700 thousand hectare area under paddy was identified where yield of paddy was lower than the break-even yield of 3 t/ha, water table was very deep and fall in water table was also quite high. Such areas with the minimum of policy interventions offer good scope for diversification. Fortunately, cotton crop is on the revival path and is in the process of shifting from rice to cotton crop and thus mitigate the problem to a great extent. The research and extension systems can play an important role to bring about diversification in Punjab agriculture. The comparison of state average yield realized with that of potential yields for various crops indicates that the realized potential yield during is about 80% in case of paddy and wheat crops, whereas the realized potential for most of the competing crops is very low. One of the possible reasons could be that these crops had been pushed to the secondary importance and are cultivated under poor soil and water resources regime. Once they are started growing on productive lands, their productivity is bound to increase. Yet, technological advances backed by their dissemination and adoption through efficient and wide spread extension network can enhance their productivity. The factors responsible for the gap between potential and realized yields of alternative crops need to be identified and corrective measures be taken. This requires demonstration of technology at farmers’ fields and removing the bottlenecks in the adoption of their latest technologies. Alternative high value enterprises In spite of the fact that scientists, policy makers, farmers and public in general are aware of the gravity of economic and environmental issues of rice-wheat dominance, area under these two crops continues to increase, aggravating the problems further. Various other farm enterprises and crops have been recognized and suggested as alternative to this system. The important amongst those enterprises are fruits, vegetables, dairy farming, mentha, spices, mushroom cultivation, agro-forestry, flower cultivation, fish culture etc. These alternatives, in general, have perishable products, which require delicate and scientific post-harvest like grading, packing, cold storage and quick and refrigerated transportation. Consequently, the marketing cost is high and post harvest losses are large. Further, the price elasticity of such products is higher. A small increase in their production leads to larger fall in prices resulting into fall in profits. Therefore, the degree of risk involved is greater in the production of these products. Value addition and processing of these products can go a long way in promoting their production. These alternatives could diversify some area but not on a large scale. Serious policy issues are involved in achieving this objective which perhaps no government appears to be willing to take. Dr
Joginder Singh |
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Farms on
Fire: jado jatt de khet nu ag legi
But it is distressing for the Punjab farmers. It is not the case that any package to temporarily lift them out of their eternal debt burden will solve their multifarious problems. What is disturbing is the lack of appreciation at the political plane that Punjab is plagued by a serious agrarian crisis. It is indeed tormenting when rulers look the other way. The facts are too obvious, yet need repetition. Punjab, the harbinger of Green Revolution is witness to harrowing picture of its farm front. In the next ten years, marginal farmers owning one hectare or less would disappear and be part of the large army of unemployed which is already 32 lakh. In 1971, there were 14 lakh strong farming families. By 1995-96 the number of had fallen down by one lakh. Next decade saw another three lakh out. Now the momentum of the farmers moving away from their age-old work has gained speed. In another decade may see the number dwindle to just at one third of 1971. Similar would be the fate of those owning up to two hectares in ten years later or so. Medium landowners shall suffer the same fate, but marginally. Those who now own large [4 to-10 hectares] and extra large holdings [above 10 hectares] would survive. It is no wonder that the National Sample Survey has said that 38 per cent of the farmers wish to leave their ancestral profession of farming as it is no longer sustainable. The current unprecedented rise in land prices is a ready excuse to sell these uneconomic land holdings. It is the high cost intensive commercial farming and the ever fluctuating exploitative market system that has done the trick. Take the last Rabi season. The government announced a minimum support price of Rs 650 per quintal and when the farmers have disposed off a substantial stock of wheat more to traders who offered a little more, the government announced a bonus of Rs 50 per quintal to those who have sold to government. Traders made merry as farmers suffered as did the government and its public distribution network. Against a target of 16.2 million tonnes, it could procure around ten million tonnes. It is rare for the government to miss its target and at top of it; the government purchased poor quality rotten wheat from Australia at a much higher cost. It was blatantly stupid, if it was not tragic. The government chose to starve its own farmers by paying them up to Rs 450 per quintal less than the import purchase price and in the process enriched the traders by putting millions of rupees in their pockets. The government has begun cutting down on its Public Distribution System. Does our worthy Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh have any explanation for that? Economists call this adverse terms of trade and that have been the bane of agriculture in India for over a century.
Result is frustration and suicides. Crushed by the heavy load of debt, the hapless farmers try to escape the vicious circle of indebtedness by committing suicides. According to Punjab government, as many as 2,116 farmers committed suicides between 1998 and 2005. Non-government organisations find this figure a gross underestimate. Inderjit Jayjee of the Movement Against State Repression has estimated in Andana and Lehra blocks of Moonak subdivision in Sangrur that 1,360 farmer suicides between 1998 and 2005. Mr Jayjee is a former MLA and maternal uncle of our honourable chief minister and is not given to lies. The government rejected these claims and depended upon its police. And, even these have been rejected by the government of India. Land size is shrinking, production is falling and cost is rising, besides the modern commercial high tech farming where the produce is laced with heavy doze of chemicals are all leading to a catastrophe. Last year arrest warrants against 14,000 defaulter farmers from a single bank in Bhatinda district and of a whole village in Sangrur district are symptoms of a bigger malady. Green revolution is turning red and could lead to another bout of political violence There is as yet no visible alternative farm policy initiative except the failed diversification plan. The entry of multinationals or Indian large corporates like Reliance bent upon making huge money will only exploit and add to the misery. One Way out is better organic farming practices, less input costs, less burden of debt and healthy foods. Food grains would finally help as the world situation is pretty grim. Heavy use of fertilizers, pesticides, insecticides and other elements that push the cost of cultivation and hence the poverty of the farmers have to go. |
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A
massive reduction in area under wheat and paddy was strongly recommended in
1986 in the first diversification report. But farmers have expanded area
under paddy by about 10 lakh hectares and under wheat by about 4 lakh
hectares since then. The ground realities as they affect 11 lakh farmers of
the state, as well as a holistic analysis of economics of wheat and paddy
cultivation clearly and convincingly show that a massive reduction in area
under wheat and paddy in Punjab is neither possible, nor desirable from
Punjab farmer’s angle as well as national food security angel. The reasons
and factors that do not allow the reduction in area under wheat and paddy
and hence are responsible for the failure of diversification policy are the
following:
WAS
there any surprise when a “highly experienced” union agriculture minister
Sharad Pawar declared in parliament that the government of India had no
reports of farmers committing suicides in Punjab? He was only echoing what
another “illustrations leader” Janardhan Dwivedi, ruling Congress party’s
general secretary and in- charge of Punjab affairs had earlier declared in
Chandigarh. “Farmers of Punjab are still better off than those of Vidharba.
The situation was not comparable”, He pronounced. Hence no special package
for the poor and heavily indebted farmers on the lines of that given to the
peasants in Vidharba as demanded by the chief minister Capt. Amarinder
singh. Since it is an election year, these declarations have indeed upset
the Punjab Congress and brought some cheers to its rivals, the Akali Dal.
The high
cost of farming has made it more painful and unbearable, pushing the
farmers, particularly the small and marginal into deep debt. There is an
alarming rise in farmer borrowings for capital investment like tractors,
tubewells, soil conservation and inputs. Compared to 5 per cent in 1992, 26
per cent of farm indebtedness in 2003 is due to borrowing for this purpose.
Again, depletion of ground water and deteriorating soil quality forced
farmers to borrow heavily, from the traditional centrifugal pumps to costly
submersible technology. All this has lead to debt accumulation. There had
been visible stagnation in the agricultural growth during the 1990s.
Repeated failure of cotton crop bankrupted the cotton farmers. There has
been no change in the paddy yield since the late 1980s. Wheat yield improved
only marginally. The government could do little to break this stagnation.
One can make no sense of when Dr Manmohan Singh or Farmers Commission
Chairman Swaminathan, the father of first Green Revolution talk about a
Second Green Revolution. What panacea do they have for the prohibitive
capital investment, high cost of inputs like seeds, fertilizers, pesticides
and insecticides which others too are leading to diseases and poor soil
conditions?