| Issue 25 Vol II, October 15, 2006 | Archive |
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Environment Degradation: No Food, No Water in 100 Years
A study by the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research presents a dire forecast so far of the potential effects of rising temperatures around the world. This is genuinely terrifying. It is a death sentence for many millions of people. It will mean migration off the land at levels not seen before, and at levels our best science can hardly cope with. There is almost no aspect of life in the developing countries that will remain untouched. This shall undermine the ability to grow food, have a safe sanitation system and potable water. For hundreds of millions of people already struggling hard to live, this is going to push them over the precipice. Potential effects on drought from global-warming-induced changes to the Earth's carbon cycle could be devastating. Scientists basing themselves on hard research declared that the results are valid at the global level. Its implication for the people already stricken by drought like in Africa will be severe. While the study will be seen as a cause for great concern, it is the figure for the increase in extreme drought that some observers find most frightening. 30 per cent of the world's land surface is feared to turn uninhabitable in terms of agricultural production in the space of a few decades. These are parts of the world where hundreds of millions of people will no longer be able to feed themselves. According to a respected British newspaper, The Independent a glimpse of what lies ahead is too frightening. It wrote, “The Pastoralists have little other than their animals to rely on. But projects which provide them with money to buy food elsewhere have proved effective, in the short term at least.” And , the cost of curbing the soaring emissions of harmful gases that are blamed for causing global warming has been estimated at $1 trillion by a study of the cost of climate change. The volume of emissions of the gases that cause global warming will double by 2050 unless rich countries agree to take significant policy steps to cut energy use, it shows. America remain the main culprit , refusing to recogonise the harsh reality and declining to sign the Kyoto Protocol. it consumed 46 per cent of earth's resources each year. Sea ice in the Arctic last month melted to its second lowest monthly minimum in the 29-year record of satellite measurements. The Arctic sea ice floats on the ocean and its surface coverage varies naturally in line with seasonal temperature changes, with an absolute minimum in summer occurring around mid-September. Summer sea ice across the entire Arctic has been dwindling steadily since satellite measurements began in 1977. But since 2002 scientists have detected a noticeable acceleration in the rate of summer loss, which they believe, is caused by global warming. Scientists fear that as more and more sea ice is lost, a "positive feedback" will kick in, with the Arctic Ocean absorbing more sunlight, which will in turn cause the loss of more sea ice. Drought threatening the lives of millions will spread across half the land surface of the Earth in the coming century because of global warming, according to new predictions from Britain's leading climate scientists. Extreme drought, in which agriculture is in effect impossible, will affect about a third of the planet, according to the study from the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. It is one of the most dire forecasts so far of the potential effects of rising temperatures around the world - yet it may be an underestimation, the scientists involved felt. "This is genuinely terrifying," said Andrew Pendleton of Christian Aid. "It is a death sentence for many millions of people. It will mean migration off the land at levels we have not seen before, and at levels poor countries cannot cope with." One of Britain's leading experts on the effects of climate change on the developing countries, Andrew Simms from the New Economics Foundation warned: "There's almost no aspect of life in the developing countries that these predictions don't undermine - the ability to grow food, the ability to have a safe sanitation system, the availability of water. For hundreds of millions of people for whom getting through the day is already a struggle, this is going to push them over the precipice." The findings represent the first time that the threat of increased drought from climate change has been quantified with a supercomputer climate model such as the one operated by the Hadley Centre. The impact is likely to even greater because the findings may be an underestimate. The study did not include potential effects on drought from global-warming-induced changes to the Earth's carbon cycle. The results are regarded as most valid at the global level, but the clear implication is that the parts of the world already stricken by drought, such as Africa, will be the places where the projected increase will have the most severe effects. The study, by Eleanor Burke and two Hadley Centre colleagues, models how a measure of drought known as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is likely to increase globally during the coming century with predicted changes in rainfall and heat around the world because of climate change. It shows the PDSI figure for moderate drought, currently at 25 per cent of the Earth's surface, rising to 50 per cent by 2100, the figure for severe drought, currently at about 8 per cent, rising to 40 cent, and the figure for extreme drought, currently 3 per cent, rising to 30 per cent. The full study - Modelling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the 21st Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model - will be published later this month in The Journal of Hydrometeorology .While the study will be seen as a cause for great concern, it is the figure for the increase in extreme drought that some observers find most frightening. "We're talking about 30 per cent of the world's land surface becoming essentially uninhabitable in terms of agricultural production in the space of a few decades," declared Mark Lynas, the author of High Tide, the first major account of the visible effects of global warming . There are parts of the world where hundreds of millions of people will no longer be able to feed themselves. The sun beats down across northern Kenya's Rift Valley, turning brown what was once green. Farmers and nomadic herders are waiting with bated breath for the arrival of the "short" rains - a few weeks of intense rainfall that will ensure their crops grow and their cattle can eat. In Kenya, the animals died first. The nomadic herders' one source of sustenance and income - their cattle - perished with nothing to eat and nothing to drink. Bleached skeletons of cows and goats littered the barren landscape. The number of food emergencies in Africa each year has almost tripled since the 1980s. Across sub-Saharan Africa, one in three people is under-nourished. Poor governance has played a part. Pastoralist communities suffer most, rather than farmers and urban dwellers. Nomadic herders will walk for weeks to find a water hole or riverbed. As resources dwindle, fighting between tribes over scarce resources becomes common. One of the most critical issues is under-investment in pastoralist areas. Here, roads are rare, schools and hospitals almost non-existent. |
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Water
Crisis in Land of Five Rivers LAST month Punjab was declared as the best state in the country by India Today newsmagazine for the third consecutive year. It is good to have a prize for Punjab. Capt Amarinder Singh patting his own back launched a publicity blitz to drum his achievements. Yet this could be a jaundiced view as there is another side of the picture that tells us loudly about the distress and destruction engulfing this land of five waters. It is a Water-Chaos in the Punjab. We can see farmers committing suicides due to failure of pumps, neighbors in farms killing each other over irrigation water, Women are bound to fetch water on their head from as far as 3 kms, and a vast majority of people have no option other then to drink polluted water. We can see long queues around certain hand pumps adjacent to canals for potable water; we can find farmers fetching water on trolleys, bullock carts, jeeps, and village made jeep-the jogards, motor bikes and bicycles in several villages. The situation is pitiable in southern districts of Malwa region, but it is turning similar almost the same in the entire Punjab. Public demonstrations, road-blocks, dharnas and civil unrest on the issue of water are splashed daily on front-pages of newspapers along side the government advertisements. Students boycotting the classes as even an engineering college near Malout was forced to declare vacations for three days as there was no water supply to the institute in April 2006. Students at ITI Moga went on strike to protest against non-availability of drinking water. The water crisis is so vast that it had engulfed every nook and corner of the state. You can find farmers demonstrating in Talwandi Sabo, Pathankot, Fazilka, Malout, Muktsar, Hoshiarpur and Garhshankar. Then there are demonstrations by urban people at Amritsar, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, and list is end less. Water scarcity had impacted daily lives and routine of Punjab peoples. They have to spend time and money to bring water from safe sources. Residents of Talwandi Bhai and Mudki towns in Ferozpur are compelled to drink un-potable water and if they wished to drink near potable water they had to travel as far 8 Kms to fetch the same. In Talwandi Sabo block also villagers in some of adjoining villages has to bring water from as far as 10 Kms. In Malsinghwala village one could see people toeing water not only to drink, but also for bathing and animals. It imports its total water requirement. Malsinghwala has already declared itself as 'village for sale'. Even earlier village Harkishanpura which was first village to put itself on sale has also severe water problem. There is no water for irrigation neither for drinking. The water crisis made village insolvent and compelled villagers to put village on sale. The situation is almost same in whole of Malwa region. The severe water crisis is also becoming a social stigma upon some villages. It is tough to find bride for village youths as no body wants to marry his/her daughter to these villages. Water crisis is so pitiable that village Buladewala with population of 6000 is getting water from 2 hand pumps only. Situation is so grim that in urban and sub-urban areas people are forced to install expensive submersible pumps to fetch water. More is the depth more it costs on drilling and then it needs further higher capacity motor to fetch water and more power bill; it is unending process now in most parts of the Punjab. Even this drinking water is polluted. "It is better to drink unfit water then die of thirst” says Barjinder Singh of Malsinghwala. It is new trend that now farmers in Punjab are committing suicide as their tube wells are going dry. As water level is going down drastically day by day the farmers are forced to spend money to get water from new depth. In some of areas this is very common phenomenon. This also adds more debt burden on the farmers. Here are few examples: Khushpal Singh (42) a small farmer of village Gajewas in Patiala district, committed suicide in June 2005 as he failed to get the bore re-installed after drastic fall in water levels. Already he had piled up debts and when he could not raise money to get the bore-well workable again he consumed pesticide. Another young farmer of same village Baljinder Singh (23) found dead on his farm. He faced similar situation and when he could not sow paddy as his tube-well became absolutely redundant. His mother describes the situation" we didn't have the money to reinstall it and couldn't sow paddy, our only means of existence. He lost all hope." Re-digging a bore and making it operational cost about Rs 1 lakh, which is not possible for a marginal or small farmer to afford. Same is story of Mal Singhwala village where Makhan Singh (35) committed suicide due to debt burden accumulated over the years as he has taken loan for re-digging. There is more tragic and sad story of Sukhchain Singh and Jinder Singh both brothers in their thirties and sons of Labh Singh a small farmer of Lehelkalan village near Lehragaga in Sangrur district. Both had committed suicide one after one as their tube-well has been failed. They are unable to pay back loan taken for re-digging and the tube-well again went dry, forcing them to end their lives. Taking water out of deep aquifers is really becoming costly affair some body has paying its price by his life and it is no other then the poor labours. This is another deadly aspect of re-digging. Every year here are about hundred incidents in which labour, masons and mechanics working to dig deep tube-well die due to collapse of well. The poor labours lost their lives as water level has dipped to the new depths. These incidents are rising every year. A large number of farmers suicides taken place in Malwa region were some how related to water crisis, either re-digging and re-installing and high operational cost or bad quality of water leads to decline in crop productivity. Sorrow saga does not end here after water related suicides now we have to face murders. Farmer Sarabjeet Singh was killed by his neighbor after an altercation and sudden provocation over drawing irrigation water in village Butala in Amritsar district. One could find hundreds of cases of altercation, tension and man handling across the Punjab over the water for irrigation, particularly during the paddy season. These instances indicte of a deepening social crisis. Now there is growing demand for more canal water in Central and North Punjab districts in Majha and Doaba regions for irrigation. Even few farmers have started debating on riparian rights among the various districts of Punjab. With ever increasing demand of irrigation water and with drastic receding ground water levels the problem is fast becoming very grave. |
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IT
may not disturb American president Bush; yet it shakes any other concerned
citizen across the globe. 21st century will record worst drought in human
memory. One third of the planet will be desert by the year 2100. Global
warming will make the lives of millions a virtual hell. It would spread
across half the land surface of the Earth by next century. According to
Britain’s leading climate scientists’ Extreme drought where agriculture will
become impossible over a third of the planet.