F O C U S

Mistrust Bedevil India China Parley
Gobind Thukral

THE visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to India and Pakistan has been a subject of concentrated debate for the past ten days. What he said or did not say was the subject hammered at all across the media. But even his gestures and how he was received in New Delhi and later in Islamabad was watched with interest. In India Jinato left many questions unanswered, yet it can be stated with certainty that bilateral trade now gets primacy over territorial disputes. Whether Arunachal or Tibet, nothing would be allowed to disturb the fast growing trade. The two Asian giants competing   for space in the world markets need not be always enemies, indulging in skirmishes across the Himalayas.

It is true that after the Indo China War of 1962, the two countries fighting their battles against poverty and ignorance have avoided any military clash, yet there are some important unresolved border issues. China does not conceal its dislike of India allowing Dalai Lama and his Tibetan government in exile to function freely from the Indian soil and supported by the Indian political class for the past some decades. This indeed looks anachronistic since India recognizes Tibet to be an integral part of China. Similarly how does China make claims over Aunachal Pradesh while accepting after much hesitation and wrangling that Sikkim is part of India. There is need understand the statement made by Chinese ambassador a few days before the much talked about state visit of Jintao to India that Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed territory and China has legitimate claims over it. Surely he was no queering the pitch for his President or throwing cold water over the visit that came after ten years. Chinese are said to be masters of cold diplomacy and even Americans acknowledge this. So the message was that India must change its dual position over Tibet.  Hence border talks are must to resolve whatever disputes have been left by history or imperial mischief. Fortunately the two sides agreed to quicken this process. There is also no doubt that trade rivalry apart from creating political networks do hot up borders, yet mature and civilized countries leave these to diplomacy and political maneuvering to take care of.

Some observers have carefully noted the warm welcome for President Jinato in Pakistan compared to India. He was received by both president Musharraf and his prime minister and the visiting Chinese leader was bestowed the high Pakistani civilian award too. The host of agreements, 12 in all, signed between the two countries will push trade and other relations to much surer footing. But then if we keep comparing with Pakistan all the time where American presidents or Chinese leaders, we would surely lose sight of the larger picture and our intrinsic strength compared to Pakistan. That would be foolhardy.

In fact Sino-Indian relations are moving forward and should pick up speed after this visit. Main reason is that in 21st century trade is the driving engine of diplomacy and friendship between the two countries. India and china had negligible trade in the 1980s. Now they buy and sell to each other goods worth $20 billion annually. Following this summit between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Hu Jintao, the two countries could double this by 2010.  Bilateral trade has grown at 30 per cent per annum since 1995, so this target can be reached easily and much mo before the deadline. The Confederation of Indian Industry, with its five-pronged plan to boost Indian exports to China, is so upbeat and hopes to increase this trade to hit $100 billion in five years.

This would require the trade basket to be diversified; at least as far as Indian exports to China are concerned. Five product categories — electrical and electronic machinery, machinery and mechanical appliances, mineral fuel and oil, organic chemicals and silk — account for over 40 per cent of Chinese exports to India.  Against this half of Indian export to China is iron ore. This shows India's relative weakness in manufacturing and poverty. While there is no   quick solution, India has to strengthen its industrial base and it is here china beats us hollow.

Indian industrialists and the government have to look at his more seriously and find ways to export finished items that is value added goods instead of raw materials. If we look at the studies conducted by various trade associations and get rid of apathy and corruption, we could achieve what China has achieved. The Confederation of Indian Industry believes that better trade facilitation, connectivity, and banking links as well as the marketing of `Brand India' in China can provide a remedy. But this may not be possible unless we correct the basic problems of inefficiency and corruption. The Union Government and Indian chambers have to work towards that more earnestly.

A worrisome aspect of Indo China relations is the lurking doubts about each other's intentions. Look at the investment side; the visit of President Hu has not helped allay the irrational fears of the Indian security establishment regarding participation of Chinese firms in sectors like telecom, infrastructure, and ports.  Why it should be so and when we compare this the kind of trust we demonstrate for Americans and British firms which have often cheated us of our costly money and have been source of annoyance and at times threat to our security There have been several instances of Chinese companies being denied security clearance for taking part in port development projects. If the government goes by the secret proposals drawn up recently by the National Security Council Secretariat will amount to virtually treating China as a hostile country as investment clearances are concerned. Neither the External Affairs ministry nor other ministries   concerned, such as Surface Transport, see much merit in the approach of our security establishment that looks towards the West for inspiration and as a source of great strength, yet the real position is that we do not let Chinese firms complete on merit and always raise the bogey of security.  The national security implications of opening a particular sector to foreign investment need to be assessed carefully but more rationally and should not be left to some so called security experts or babus in he foreign and defense ministries. However, once a decision to open up is made, it is unfortunate to restrict firms from a country with which India is supposed to have a strategic and cooperative partnership. How would the 21st century   belong to Asia and more particularly to India and China if keep the trust quotient so low.

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Amritsar as Broadcasting Hub for Afghanistan
Harjap Singh Aujla

Afghanistan, even in the most peaceful of times has suffered from some kind of political stability. This impoverished nation is still lives in the medieval times and its world divided into small principalities governed by autocratic feudal lords. While several other countries have adopted democracies or other forms of central authorities for governance, Afghanistan’s efforts to be at democracy have failed due to internal external reasons.

When the Russians (the Soviet Union) indulged in the ill-fated intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, they found to their dismay that there was not a well meaning central broadcasting system in the country. Kabul was the capital only in name; its voice was not heard in Kandahar, Khost and Tora Bora. The Soviets on the other hand had a very effective Moscow based broadcasting network for a nation spread over eleven time zones. Even the Americans and the Europeans were envious of the strength and clarity of Radio Moscow broadcasts all over the Soviet Union, including in the World’s most treacherous terrain of Siberia.

It was quite natural that the Soviets would like to build a reliable broadcasting network for Afghanistan too. But it was better said than done. The Southern and the Eastern regions, close to the border with Pakistan, were in the best of times very badly disturbed. The Soviets will commission a transmitting facility today and the rebel Mujhadeens will blow it up the very next day. It was difficult to patrol the rugged plateau cum desert region. So they decided to use some of their 50 super-powered short-wave transmitters directed towards the Indian-subcontinent for relaying the signal of Radio Kabul. Satellite up-linking dishes were installed in the studio complex in Kabul and down-linking large dishes were installed in the transmitter locations in the Central Asian Republics of Soviet Union. This way the Soviets linked entire Afghanistan with first class short-wave signal.

It did not last too long. After a ten year long expensive war and stung by reverses, at the hands of American and Saudi financed and Pakistan trained Mujhadeens in the difficult terrains of Afghanistan, the Soviets found it correct to pull out. Their successors, the Taliban ruthlessly dismantled every system of governance, including the nation-wide broadcasting network.

In 2001, after the worst ever terrorist attacks in New York and Washington D.C., America and its allies militarily intervened in Afghanistan. They drove the Taliban out of Afghanistan. Although lying low initially, the Taliban were not completely finished. They were subsequently entrenched in the difficult mountainous terrain on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Whenever pressed by the Americans and NATO forces, they quickly go into their hideouts in Pakistan and when the opportunity comes, they mount guerilla raids into Afghanistan. This has made it difficult to build radio transmitting stations in several parts of Afghanistan.

India has always been a friend of Afghanistan. During the hey days of the Taliban Regime, India kept the flame of freedom burning in a small area, the Panj Sher Valley,  North of Kabul. When the Russians were over stretched elsewhere in Europe, India kept the Northern Alliance of Ahmed Shah Masood alive in Northern Afghanistan. Now India is doing a substantial lot for the re-construction of war ravaged Afghanistan; building roads, hospitals and schools. It is supplying medicines and food items. It has provided a number of trucks and buses.

India is capable of some strategic moves. What the Soviets did for Afghanistan’s nationwide broadcasting during the eighties, India can do in the new millennium.

India has one of the finest satellite communication networks in the World. Afghanistan is a part of the footprint of India‘s satellite system. We can build an up-linking dish station in the compound of the studios of Radio Kabul. From this station, the signal of the Afghan National Broadcasting Service can be up-linked with one of India’s communications satellites. India’s closest decent sized city to Afghanistan is Amritsar. India can build a short-wave relay station in Amritsar. The station can consists of four 250 kilowatt transmitters to down-link the signal of Afghan National Broadcasting Service from the satellite and relay it into different zones of Afghanistan. One transmitter can be directed towards Kandahar, another towards the Khyber and Jalalabad region, another beam can be directed towards Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif and one should be directed towards Kabul and Panj Sher Valley. This can be India’s broadcasting gift to Afghanistan. There will be no need to guard these transmitters in the hostile areas of Afghanistan. The power supply position inside Afghanistan is extremely bad. The power situation outside of Kabul is so pathetic that the Afghan Government cannot ensure un-interrupted power supply to these high kilowatt transmitters. During the period of instability, even the studio facilities of Radio Kabul along with the staff can be shifted to Amritsar. Later on, if the political situation stabilizes considerably in Afghanistan, these sophisticated transmitters can be gifted to Afghanistan. Our engineers can install these within Afghanistan.

Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh can make this offer of goodwill to President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan. I am sure, he will gladly accept it. We as the largest country in South Asia must help our smaller neighbours. Japan and Germany do this for many countries. We should do it too for our neighbour in need. I am sure this gesture will be loved by all the partners of the UPA including the Left front. Even the opposition NDA will not oppose this gift.

Note of caution:  provided we keep changing the frequencies of transmission in accordance with the varying sun-spot numbers, my calculations indicate that we do not need higher power than 250 kilowatt short-wave transmitters for covering Afghanistan from transmitters installed near Amritsar.

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