Issue 39 Vol II, May 15, 2007

E N V I R O N M E N T

Global Warming; what it means?
Khushwant Toor

The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as volcanic eruptions, changes in the Earth's orbit, and the amount of energy released from the Sun have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution have also changed the composition of the atmosphere and therefore likely are influencing the Earth's climate.

For over the past 200 years, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and deforestation has caused the concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" to increase significantly in our atmosphere. These gases prevent heat from escaping to space creating a greenhouse effect.  In 24 hours, deforestation releases as much CO2 into the atmosphere as 8 million people flying from London to New York

Carbon Dioxide Gas is the major culprit behind this intensive greenhouse effect combined with increase in levels of methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.

On one hand greenhouse gases are necessary to life because they keep the planet's surface warmer than it otherwise would be. But, as the concentrations of these gases continue to increase in the atmosphere, the Earth's temperature is climbing at an alarming rate. According to NASA data, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4ºF during the past century. The warmest global average temperatures on record have all occurred within the past 15 years, with the warmest two years being 1998 and 2005. These warm temperatures have overall changed the climate such as rainfall patterns, snow and ice cover, and sea level.

If greenhouse gases continue to increase, climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth's surface could increase from 2.5 to 10.4ºF above 1990 levels by the end of this century. About 3 months ago the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—the leading international group of climate scientists—published a 20-page summary of a much longer scientific report, The Physical Basis of Climate Change which confirms global warming is now “unequivocal” and states with more than 90 percent certainty that human activity “very likely” has been the primary cause of rising temperatures worldwide since 1950.

Some of the astonishing facts highlighted in the IPCC report about Global Warming and their consequences which will haunt our future if we do not act now are summarized below:-

Global temperatures are expected to increase 3.5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, and there is a 1-in-10 chance that the increase could be far worse. Rising temperatures will alter global weather patterns that have a direct effect on water supplies and agriculture. Deserts will expand, the frequency and severity of droughts and deadly heat waves will increase, and snow will disappear in most areas—except on the very highest mountain peaks.

Sea levels worldwide are expected to rise between 7 and 23 inches by 2100, and will continue to rise for at least the next 1,000 years. Fierce storms, such as hurricanes, will become more frequent and more floods will occur, due to rising sea levels and heavier rainfall in some areas. Rising sea levels will create millions of environmental refugees as people are forced to leave their homes in coastal areas. Many nations will be unequipped to cope with the waves of immigrants looking for new homes.

Continuing global warming will also lead to a rise in many diseases that are deadly to humans. Flooding will contaminate water supplies in some areas, giving rise to infectious diseases. Rising temperatures will also increase the range and breeding grounds of mosquitoes and other disease-bearing insects, exposing more people to diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and encephalitis. The IPCC report more than other effects emphasized relation between see levels, changes in its composition and Global Warming. Increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will change the pH balance of seawater, making it slightly more acidic. Although the oceans will remain alkaline, marine biologists predict that a shift toward greater acidity could threaten the survival of coral reefs and plankton—an essential and fundamental link in the marine food chain.

Even a moderate increase in the build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could easily push average global temperatures to levels last seen 125,000 years ago during a warm period between two ice ages. At that time, sea levels were 12 to 20 feet higher than they are today. Much of the water from that earlier period is now frozen in Greenland and Antarctica, but many of those ice fields are beginning to melt.

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