Issue 43 Vol II, July 15, 2007

C O M M E N T

IRAQ: Moment of Truth

Latest opinion polls in America show that the popularity rating of president bush has fallen to as low as 23 per cent and his own Republican Party legislators are leaving him for the bungle in Iraq. Also, seven out of ten American reject the present military occupation and war in Iraq. American deaths have crossed 4000 mark with several thousand more injured. Add to this several lakh innocent Iraqi victims of the American lead aggression, the picture present a revulsion and horror of 21st century. Republicans are worried as there is no exist policy and Bush was leading though his thrust policy into deeper quagmire. Republicans had little concern for the innocent Iraqi deaths and devastation of that country, but about their own political future. Clearly the President is losing support in the Congress each passing day.

The Congressional Research Service in its recent report stated that the "average monthly cost of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan has been clocked at $12 billion." Iraq alone has cost American taxpayers approximately $450 billion. In addition, Bloomberg estimated, "Four thousand U.S. service members have died in President George W. Bush's 'war on terror' in Iraq and Afghanistan 5 1/2 years after American forces ousted the Taliban in December 2001." Also, the Islamic militiamen, the al Qaeda are better spread, organised and determined.

In recent days, a number of conservative senators, including Richard Lugar , George Voinovich , Pete Domenici , Susan Collins , Lamar Alexander  and Judd Gregg  have suggested  they were ready to break with Bush's escalation policy in Iraq. Put on the defensive, the White House is reportedly in "panic mode," concerned that the Republican discontent may be the "crack in the dike" that forces a long-overdue Iraq redeployment.

According to The New York Times the White House officials were heatedly debating whether Bush "should try to prevent more defections" of war supporters by announcing a "gradual withdrawal" of U.S. troops. Calling it a "moment of truth for the President," neoconservatives "confirmed that there are real discussions going on at the White House, with advocates of what is being called 'The Grand Bargain' pushing hard for the president to move soon to announce plans to pull back in Iraq." The Washington Post reported that the White House is not talking about a true "strategic reset" in the Middle East, but instead, a "political strategy" to "shift [Bush's] message." According to the Post, the White House has "rejected calls to change course but will launch a campaign emphasizing his intent to draw down U.S. forces next year and move toward a more limited mission if security conditions improve."

The puppet government in Baghdad as expected widely has failed to meet any of its targets for political, economic and other types of progress. The real question is how the White House proceeds with a post-surge strategy in light of the report. Opposition to the Iraq war has reached a record high. A recent Pentagon report found the aggregate level of violence in Iraq remained relatively unchanged. If violence has decreased in Baghdad and in Ambar Province, then it has certainly increased in most provinces; in outlying areas around Baghdad and in Nineva and Diyala provinces. There is not even a semblance of peace and development.

Meanwhile, murder of Iraq Freedom Congress leader is a blow to labour and peace activists around the world. At 3 a.m. on the 4th of July, U.S. military forces and Iraqi national guards opened fire with a barrage of bullets and grenades on the Baghdad home of Abdel- Hussein Saddam. The severely wounded Abdel-Hussein was taken away and his 18-year-old daughter was left alone, injured and bleeding on the floor. This is what according to several Iraqi war veterans quoted by the Nation magazine in great details said about the atrocities being committed day and night on Iraqi people

Abdel-Hussein's beaten body turned up at the Yarmouk Hospital morgue on July 6. The murder of Abdel-Hussein was the most devastating of four attacks by the U.S. military on the Iraq Freedom Congress in the past 10 months. The IFC is an organization comprised primarily of trade unionists, community leaders, and women's and children's rights workers who are determined to look after their own. IFC's goals are to salvage the lives of as many Iraqis as possible, and to end the occupation and sectarian fighting. Its slogan: "No Shiite! No Sunni! Ours is Human Identity.'

Media watch dog, mediachannel reported “a curious thing that, over the past 10 - 12 days, the news from Iraq refers to the combatants there as "al-Qaeda" fighters. When did that happen? Until a few days ago, the combatants in Iraq were "insurgents" or they were referred to as "Sunni" or "Shia" fighters in the Iraq Civil War. Suddenly, without evidence, without proof, without any semblance of fact, the US military command is referring to these combatants as "al-Qaeda". Welcome to the latest in Iraq propaganda.” But what is even more notable is that the establishment press has followed right along, just as enthusiastically. Every new operation is against "Al Qaeda."
The American president is certainly on a downhill journey. But doe it help the devastated people in Iraq and Afghanistan?

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Iraq and Afghanistan too dangerous for journalists

MEDIA advocate Reporters Sans Borders has called for the establishment of a special police unit to investigate media killings in Iraq after a record 12 journalists were slain in May. The Paris-based group expressed deep shock after the deaths of four journalists in five days and said police should also set up a witness protection programme to help in investigations of media killings.

“The Iraqi government must fulfill their duty to protect journalists,” RSF said in a statement on its Web site (www.rsf.org). RSF’s statement and its count of 11 journalists killed in May, all but one Iraqi, did not include the death of Saif Fakhry, an Iraqi cameraman working for the US Associated Press news agency. Fakhry was shot twice while walking to a mosque near his home in Baghdad. He had worked for AP Television News (APTN) since August 2004 and is survived by his wife, who is due to give birth to their first child next month, APTN said. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, who controlled all media, Iraqis have seen the proliferation of newspapers and television.

Reporters sans Borders on July 13 called on both the US army and the Iraqi police to investigate the deaths of a photographer and a driver employed by Reuters in Baghdad because of the contradictory accounts about the circumstances. If the responsibilities are not clearly established, suspicions will persist about the US army’s involvement. Their deaths bring to six the number of Reuters employees killed since the start of the US-led invasion in March 2003.

“We are deeply saddened by the deaths of these two Reuters employees and we offer our most sincere condolences to their families and colleagues,” the press freedom organisation said. “An investigation must be quickly carried by both the US army and the Iraqi police, who have post at Al-Rashad that is near where they were killed. If the circumstances and responsibilities are not clearly established, suspicions will persist about the US army’s involvement.”

Photographer Namir Noor-Eldeen, 22, and his driver, Saeed Chmagh, 40, were killed in east Baghdad by gunfire of unclear origin. Witnesses said a rocket was fired from a US helicopter.

Reuters chief executive Tom Glocer said: “Noor-Eldeen and Chmagh’s outstanding contribution to reporting on the unfolding events in Iraq has been vital. They stand alongside other colleagues in Reuters who have died doing a job that they believed in.”

Reporters Sans Borders has also learned that Khaled W. Hassan, 23, an Iraqi journalist employed by the New York Times, was gunned down as he was going to work today in the south Baghdad district of Saidiyah. He had worked for the New York Times for four years and was its second employee to be killed in Iraq. The press freedom organisation urges the Iraqi authorities to establish the exact circumstances of his death.

Covering the war in Iraq is now the most dangerous job in the world for journalists. A total of 194 have been killed in Iraq since the start of the war. Reporters Sans Borders is also without any word as to the fate of 14 Iraqi journalists who have been kidnapped, some of them more than a year ago.

American government and its commanders pay little attention to the deaths of Iraqi or non Iraqi journalists and feel no sense of qualms for the killings. At least half of those who lost their lives have been gunned down by the American troops, many of them deliberately. They would like all journalists to leave the war ravaged country so that the truth could never be known.

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Why do We Fall Sick? Cure Through Genetics

AS science scales new horizons, it is conquering not only space but also diseases and sickness. A new pioneering study into the genetic basis of disease offers new ways of understanding and treating common illnesses plaguing millions of people. These could be from depression to heart ailments. Also, high blood pressure, bipolar disorder and rheumatoid arthritis.

Scientists using a radical approach for analysing vast tracts of the human genome have come out with first results based on a comprehensive investigation into the genes behind seven medical disorders. It involved 50 research groups and 200 scientists from Britain who pioneered the study by analysing the DNA of thousands of people.

This £9 million study took DNA samples from 17,000 people across the UK and built up a database handling 10 billion items of genetic information for two years. It identified a dozen genes or tiny "point mutations" in the human genome that appear to increase the risk of someone developing a particular disorder.

One unanticipated result was finding the first genetic link between type 1 diabetes and a bowel condition called Crohn's disease ­ both were associated with a gene known as PTPN2.

Scientists  felt  this research  promised to open the way to an era of "personalised" medicine in which doctors routinely analyse the DNA of patients to find out which drugs their genes are best suited for ­ rather than the existing approach of "one size fits all".

This study has questioned the role of nature and nurture in the creation of a person's psyche, making it possible to understand why some people are prone to developing mental illness such as manic depression or schizophrenia.

Professor Peter Donnelly of Oxford University, the leader of the scientific consortium behind the study said "Many of the most common diseases are very complex, part of 'nature' and 'nurture', with genes interacting with our environment and lifestyles. By identifying the genes underlying these conditions, our study should enable scientists to understand well how disease occurs, which people are most at risk and, in time, to produce more effective, more personalised treatments.”

The study, published in the journal Nature, came out of the mammoth effort during the 1990s to decode the entire three billion "letters" of the human genome. It was co-coordinated by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, and funded by the Wellcome Trust.

Thousands of people affected by at least one of the seven diseases gave blood samples that were analysed by sophisticated DNA "chips". These can rifle through huge regions of a person's genome to locate point mutations that are different from the general population.

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Indian Air Force on Buying Spree
Gulshan Luthra and Air Marshal Ashok Goel (Retd)

THE Indian Air Force (IAF) says that it will acquire its new 126 Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) from a single vendor only and not from two or three different manufacturers.

Setting aside rumours of multi-vendor acquisition, Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal F H Major, told these writers in an interview for the India Strategic defence magazine that it did not make sense to go to two or three sellers just to keep different countries happy, and that the world’s single biggest fighter jet order would go only to one supplier.

He also said that there was no proposal at the moment to increase the order to 200 aircraft but “a review after induction, based on cost-benefit analysis, is of course possible in future.”

Air Chief Marshal Major said that although the process to issue the tender, or Request for Proposals (RfP), had taken time, “all possible issues” are being verified in advance and that he expected the first squadron of 18 new jets to be inducted within five years, say by 2012.

Senior officers of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) also indicated the same time period, pointing out that the new acquisition procedures under the Defence Procurement Policy (DPP) 2006 would facilitate time-bound technical evaluation by the IAF followed by financial clearance by the Ministry.

“After issuance of RfP – around July – the laid down procedure will be followed which is very objective, transparent and time-bound,” the air chief said.

The interview, conducted on the eve of the Paris Air Show, is being published in the July issue of the magazine.

The initial deal for the 126 jets is estimated at US $ 10 billion, inclusive of the aircraft, training and weapons package, the latter accounting for some 25 per cent of the overall costs. Future upgrades, to be conducted twice or thrice during the estimated 40 year life of the aircraft, would be additional.

ACM Major said that the air force wanted to reduce the inventory in its combat jet arsenal to three aircraft systems only, and over the next few years, it would use the home-made Tejas as the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), the new MRCAs as the Medium Combat Aircraft (MCA) and the 35-ton SU 30 MKIs as the Heavy Combat Aircraft (HCA).

The SU 30 MKI is a near 5th generation fighter giving IAF substantial strategic reach, and although this aircraft is still in the process of acquisition, future upgrades for it are already being planned to ensure that it retains “its cutting edge” over the coming decades.

The MCA and LCA would be given a technological edge on similar lines, and the key to the acquisition of the new MRCAs, from among a choice of six vendors, would be the “technology and multi-role capability”.

The air chief said that while the selection criteria for the MRCA, called the Air Staff Requirements (ASR), are secret, the air force wanted the new fighter jets to be “contemporary and futuristic and with a cost-benefit angle.”

Broadly speaking, “we want a medium weight, multi role combat aircraft that can undertake 1. Air defence, 2. Ground attack, 3. Maritime attack (anti-ship) and 4. Reconnaissance roles with ease.”

“We want the aircraft to have adequately long-range and endurance to meet our operational requirements” with 5. Additional mid-air refuellig capability and 6. “Ease of maintenance and low life-cycle costs.”

This is the first time that the IAF has indicated the capabilities that it wants in the MRCA.

Both ACM Major and his predecessor ACM S P Tyagi have said that technologies like the new AESA radar, which give a pilot the capability to acquire targets far away – say 100 nautical miles plus – as well as to use the same system as a communication platform to “talk” to his colleagues and command, will be vital in the selection process.

It may be noted that at the moment, this still evolving technology is best available with the US companies, primarily Raytheon and Northrop Grumman, while the Russians and others are also developing their versions.

Whether these technologies will be available to India, the answer is yes from all the vendors. But whether India would have Transfer of Technology (ToT) rights is still not known.

According to Raytheon International President Torkel Patterson, whose company is supplying this technology on US bombers and the F-18 Super Hornets, “it would depend upon the agreements between the Indian and US governments” as a manufacturer has no control on export of sophisticated technologies.

He told India Strategic at the Paris Air Show last fortnight that Raytheon was however already configuring the AESA radar for the Boeing F 18, Lockheed Martin F 16 and Swedish Gripen.

The three other aircraft in the fray are Russian Mig 35, French Rafale and European Consortium’s (UK, Germany, Italy and Spain) Eurofighter.

Gulshan Luthra and Air Marshal Ashok Goel are defence analysts. They can be reached at indiastrategic@hotmail.com

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