Issue 48 Vol II, September 30, 2007

E D I T O R I A L

Arms and the Man

Increased military spending in south Asia will worsen security and render poor more poor. This well stated fact, but increasingly ignored by the ruling elites all over the world is haunting the people.

South Asia is one of the poorest and misgoverned regions of the world where over 1.50 billion people live. Peace has eluded the region for decades. Despite visible development in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, between 30 to 60 per cent population is poor; different percentage in each of the eight countries. These poor have no access even to safe dirking water what to talk about education, healthcare, roads and electricity. Per capita annual income, otherwise no measure to locate the grinding poverty varies from $ 200 as in Afghanistan to $ 800 in Pakistan to $430 in Bangladesh and $1010 in Sri Lanka and $820 in India. Maldives, the smallest and under developed has an astonishing per capita of $2610.

It is China, Western and Indian officials assert that is causing the spurt in expenditure on arms. China’s military budget would rise this year by 17.8 percent to roughly $45 billion. China’s argument is that it must have strong defence in view of tough American support to Taiwan, its arch enemy.

Military analysts emphasise that China’s public military budget actually reflects only a fraction of its overall defense spending. Real spending could be two to four times higher. The new technological advances reflect China’s intense focus on scientific and technological development, and are the result of more than a decade of increased military spending. China’s defense outlays have been growing on an average of about 15 percent a year from 1990 to 2005. This year’s jump is the largest one reported since military spending rose by 19.4 percent in 2002. yet China is still home to 18 percent of the world’s poor. About 150 million people in China live on less than $1 a day. China's income inequality has risen from 28 percent in 1981 to 41 percent today (according to the Gini index).

There is a real apprehension in South Asia that increasing defence spending will not only aggravate countries’ internal and external disputes and further aggravate human security in the region but render poor more poor.

A report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), ‘The Military Balance’ gives the composition of armies, weapons, economies and demographics of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Military structures of India and Pakistan are the most cumbersome and huge, both in terms of men and material. Fear instead of trust fuels this heavy spending. India sees China and Pakistan as threat and a measure for ever increasing spending on arms and ammunition.

This report says Afghanistan has 50,000 troops besides the International Security Assistance Force personnel, Bangladesh 126,500, India 1,316,000, Nepal 69,000, Pakistan 619,000, and Sri Lanka 150,900. About defence expenditure, it says that Bangladesh spends $840 million, India $21.7 billion, Nepal $139 million, Pakistan $4.14 billion and Sri Lanka $686 million per year. All these countries are plagued by internal unrest, insurgency and malfunctioning of the polity.

Pakistan and India continue defence shopping, this report noted. “India’s arms procurement programme continues to gather pace, with the decision to purchase the Trenton, an amphibious transport dock-class ship, along with four landing craft, from the US for $48.23 million in August 2006, its second major arms deal with the US since 2003.”

Pakistan is also purchasing arms for its forces, including a $1.15 billion order in June 2006 for six Swedish SAAB 2000 turboprop AWACS aircraft with radars from Ericsson Microwave Systems.

Pakistan signed a major $5 billion arms deal with the US on September 30, 2006, to purchase 18 new F-16C/D fighter aircraft equipped with AMRAAM - beyond visual range air-to-air-missiles - with the option to buy 18 additional new aircraft and upgrade its existing 34 F-16 aircraft. It is also planning to acquire up to 150 JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft worth $2 billion and an estimated 36 J-10 fighter aircraft worth $1.2 billion both from China.

India also ordered three modified Krivak III frigates on July 6, 2006, from Russia for $1.1 billion. In view of the Indian air force chief’s concern over the reduction of fighter squadrons from the current 32 to 28 by 2012, there could be an interim order for additional Mirage fighters from France. The air force is also seeking 126 multi-role combat aircraft, 80 new helicopters and light combat aircraft.

 There have been, of late, efforts to resolve India- Pakistan disputes. Though bilateral security environment has improved between the two counties through expansion of transportation links, people to-people exchanges and constant meetings between their leaders yet there has been only limited progress in their composite dialogue. Current unstable political situation in Pakistan is discouraging for any serious engagement with Pakistan by the Indians.

According to  an Indian official report  that 76 of 299 districts in nine provinces – Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh – are ‘badly affected’ by Maoists violence.

The report also highlights Pakistan’s problems in Waziristan and Balochistan where militancy has been going on despite military operations.  There is no writ of the Pakistan government in large areas of NWPF and Waziristan despite heavy bombing by the American and Pakistan forces, there has been little success.

An ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka has claimed over 60,000 lives. Another 13,000 lives have been lost in the rugged and poor Nepal over the last decade.

Yet visualize when even a part of this huge money is spent to provide drinking water, elementary education and health care. It adds to happiness of millions of deprived people. How would it boost the economy and the political health in the region? In turn it would also help build peace . Does not poverty build strife, violence and rivalry?

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