Issue 49 Vol III, October 15, 2007

E D I T O R I A L

A Fading Nuclear Deal

IT is like a long yawn. An anguished Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh on August 11 had maintained that a civil nuclear agreement with America was final and the Left could do whatever it wanted. “If they wanted to withdraw support, so be it…” After two months of heated arguments, public flare-up and slogan mongering, besides wasting a full session of the parliament, the prime minister declared on October 12: “If the deal does not come through, that is not the end of life… we are not one issue government.” The government shall continue to do business with the communists as usual. In parliament there was neither any significant debate on the nuclear deal, nor other serious issues were deliberated. Does he or his party realise that they have kept the nation on tenterhooks and a mid term election had looked a certainty? In between there was rush of half baked schemes and declarations to win the battle of hearts of the voters.

And, Congress president and the chairperson of the UPA, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi who only a week back in Rewari in Haryana was hurling challenges, was also in chastened mood. She moved fast from high pedestal of declaration that those who oppose this agreement were enemies of development to that was only in context of Haryana and Leftists are our valuable allies. Here are her exact words: “Everyone would want me to say that it was an attack on the Left. But it was not. I was in Haryana and talking about the opposition to our government there. We are working in a coalition. If I want to say about something that I don’t agree with them, the last thing I would do is to go out and shout and scream and say I don’t approve of it. I don’t agree. I would call that person and tell him directly.” How wise of Mrs. Gandhi!

What brought this change of mind, if at all there is one? Not very bright prospects at the mid term elections, opposition from within the UPA and also from within the Congress made Mrs. Gandhi and Dr. Manmohan Singh see reason. Many newspapers and television stations had been predicting that the Congress would improve its present tally, but short of its own majority. It would be dependent upon regional allies. It may need the support of the Leftists again. Even if it ignored the Left parties and allied and chose with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which was expected do well, it could not pursue the nuclear deal as BSP too was opposed. And, in case another front emerged victorious and BJP decided to go with it or the Leftists supported it, there was no guarantee of the agreement coming into operation. Congress alone seems to be supporting the agreement and it commands no more than 25 per cent of the public support. Any realistic estimate could tell these leaders that greater part of political opinion in India is opposed to the nuclear deal. The Congress party should have considered this political reality of India before signing the agreement. An international agreement, good or bad that binds the country in perpetuity must have the support of the majority in a democracy. Here it was opposed from the right and the left.

In fact, since the last UPA-Left meeting on October 9, a shift in the mood in ruling circles was visible. The earlier resolve to go ahead and operationalise the deal had been replaced by a sense of caution. Allies like Sharad Pawar, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Bilas Paswan had publicly stated that a breach with the Left and early elections were not worth it, particularly since the future of the deal itself was in danger. The ruling coalition was faced with the prospect of losing the deal and losing the government. So the “political pragmatists” who outnumbered the deal backers in the UPA were keen to save the government and put the deal on the backburner. They are being proved right the way BJP Leader and self declared prime ministerial candidate, L.K.Advani has reacted. “Mr. Prime Minister you are the weakest prime minister so far. Why don’t you quit and order a fresh election. We are so eager to snatch power. What a disappointment”.

CPM leaders Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury when they met Mrs. Gandhi on October 8 pointed out that neither the Left nor the UPA partners were keen on an early election and haste to seal the deal should not fracture the forces of secularism. The announcement of the Gujarat and Himachal election schedule only strengthened this argument that a fissure in the UPA coalition would end up helping the BJP.

The Congress, enjoying power on the shoulders of the Left was first in no compromise mood. It knew well that the majority of parliamentarians opposed the deal as the NDA including the BJP besides the Left parties. The argument that since parliament was supreme, it could not be burdened with an international treaty without its approval, did not cut much ice with the ruling party. The Congress using its lever of power was keen to operationalise the Agreement and reinforce its strategic ties with the American block, and win an election too. This is what was making a meek prime minister go bullish and declare, “The Left has also to learn to work with us”. He conveniently forgot that the Congress was enjoying power and its fruits with the support of the Left parties which were rendering support from outside.  It is Congress that has to learn since it is ruling and not the other way round.

Neither the deal is dead or the strategic partnership with America now growing by each passing day. Dr Manmohan Singh has told President Bush that he faced difficulties. It must be big disappointment for Bush who is facing bad times with his popularity graph touching just 27 per cent approval ratings in America. This nuclear deal was considered a big foreign policy accomplishment of his administration that is otherwise struck badly in Iraq and Afghanistan. The present American leadership is isolated and reviled worldwide. In India people are yet to be convinced of the worth of this new relationship with the only superpower, though fading fast. Nevertheless, Congress leaders who wish to go ahead with the deal would certainly make another attempt. The American government is waiting for that. It could happen in a year. But after Bush is gone next year, no one could be sure. The leftists, allies of the UPA and even BJP would wait for that.

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