Issue 49 Vol III, October 15, 2007

F O C U S

Pakistan under a ‘civilian’ dictator
The Mediaeval way to power
Gobind Thukral

President General Pervez Musharraf has maneuvered with the active connivance of the Bush Administration to get elected from an electoral college whose term ends within a month of his reelection. America hailed this travesty of any election as victory for democracy in Pakistan. Some 30 per cent of the members had resigned in protest and there were vociferous demonstrations in several parts of Pakistan.  Pakistan’s People’s Party and its leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who had struck a deal with Musharraf too faced ire of the people. Now the only impediment is the Supreme Court which has yet to put its seal on this election.

Since the general is threatening another heavy doze of martial law, no one expects the highest court though rejuvenated with the support of the lawyers and the people to risk that. Of course, it could place a firm spoke in the works of the Mrs. Bhutto and hold the Reconciliation Ordinance as unconstitutional.

Under this ‘benevolent dispensation’ only those cases are to be withdrawn that were registered between Jan 1, 1986, and Oct 12, 1999, and in which no conviction was made. Yet another amendment — in the Code of Criminal Procedure of 1898 (Act V, Section 494) — calls for withdrawal of cases registered between Jan 1, 1986, and Oct 12, 1999, by the federal or a provincial government against any person, including an absconding accused, found to have been framed for political reasons. The law will be applicable to only those cases in which no court has given a judgment.

This does not include the cases against former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. He was deported within two hours of his landing in Lahore last month. He has been in illegal exile for the past seven years. This case too is under adjudication and Saudi Arabia that brokered some deal between Musharraf and Sharif is under cloud in Pakistan for siding with an unpopular president cum army chief. [See the falling graph of Musharraf as a separate report]

Now what remains is a general election slated in January 2008 where Benazir Bhutto is to be helped to win and form a government under the supervision of the general. And, a brand new experiment in a guided democracy would be complete. PPP and the present ruling ramshackle PLM [Q] would happily marry under Gen. Musharraf.

President-elect Musharraf during his long interviews to TV channels has dwelt how “new governance” under a civilianised president would work for the benefit of the people of Pakistan. He would rule, fortified with Article 58-2(B), in an arrangement at the top that was called “troika” in the past. The National Security Council will take care of the differences of opinion and the troika [the president, the prime minister and the army chief] would avoid the cloak-and-dagger conspiracies that had bedeviled during the 1990s that crooked Pakistan as the shakiest country in the world.

Under this new arrangement, Musharraf could play the role of the monkey amongst two cats- the prime minister and the army chief. The troika will remain lopsided of two-against-one to the detriment of the elected prime minister. Musharraf and his army chief with the backing of PML [Q] could reduce the elected prime minister to a glittering zero. No one expects this system to run efficiently.

The US State Department finds the Pakistan’s future and its ties with the United States at stake in the country’s presidential and general elections. It says, “We have a lot at stake; they have a lot at stake. The future course of Pakistan is at stake in this and future elections.” America takes Pakistan as a frontline state in its fight against religious extremism and terrorism. But it has no qualms about democracy. It has never helped any other country so far to have democracy and always supported dictators as they are apt at playing the American ballgame. It has spent ten billion American dollars and provided all kinds of logistic and political support. It is another matter that the problems have aggravated. Large parts of Pakistan bordering the troubled Afghanistan; NWFP and  Waziristan are no longer under the control of the government of Pakistan.

For months the government had not been able to get its 200 soldiers released from the captors, the Talibans. In the past three months dozens of soldiers and Taliban fighters have died in pitched battles. Result is that more and more areas have come under the control of these tribal and religious fanatics. Beyond Peshawar, in Balochistan and other tribal agency areas where even the British could not venture, Pakistan government’s writ does not run. One of the most dangerous places is its national capital, Islamabad. Otherwise too, in Pakistan anti American and pro Taliban sentiments are growing fast. These eight years of Musharraf and American insensitivity have done much damage to Pakistani’s moderate political opinion that has been trying to assert through lawyers and the media.

Look at this report of one day, October 8 alone when 88 persons died in North Waziristan. “Security forces backed by heavy artillery and helicopter gunships killed 65 militants but lost 20 soldiers in two battles in North Waziristan. Three civilians were also killed when a stray shell hit their house in Sokhail village, five kilometres from Mir Ali. The fighting began on Saturday night when militants ambushed an army convoy in Mir Ali, 24 kilometres east of agency headquarters Miranshah, on the Miranshah-Bannu road. The security forces launched an operation against the militants. Ten army soldiers were killed and 10 wounded. Later the militants attacked another army convoy in the same area near Sokhail. Security forces killed 18 militants and injured 15 in the subsequent fighting.”

In the absence of democratic traditions and institutions, people have no role to play in decision-making. Even a popular movement of lawyers got dissipated fast. Now succession is a game. Under the present system designed for self survival, the transfer of power is a compromise with those who are already in power. As one commentator said, “When somebody succeeds to power, the question of illegitimacy bothers no one and we accept the theory of al-Mawardi, a thinker of the mediaeval period, who in his book Al-Ahkam al-Sultaniyah advises Muslims to recognise those who usurp power with the help of arms as legitimate rulers. We haven’t moved too far away from this mediaeval thinking, have we?” Where is the approval of the people considered masters in a democracy for this new arrangement and tailored constitution?

Benazir Bhutto was not wrong when she said that the quasi-religious militancy was the most serious threat to Pakistan and argued that the country could be saved only by the people, backed by a civilian democratic government. It certainly did not mean another guided democracy under military. The regime with which she has pawned her soul is capable neither of neither preventing Pakistan’s Talibanisation nor of establishing a popular democracy. The threat to the state has increased and Pakistan remains unhinged. Or shall we say Pakistan is in another fine mess America has got it into.

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A Season of Politics
Ishtiaq Ahmed

IF President Pervez Musharraf had announced that he will take off his military uniform and contest election for the post of president of Pakistan after new elections in the national and provincial assemblies had taken place, provided the two-year restriction on a government official contesting public office be removed, I think such an arrangement would have enjoyed greater legitimacy than the route to the presidency that was adopted on October 2, 2007.

Now, of course the situation is rather strange. How can assemblies which have once before validated the election of Pervez Musharraf as president do it a second time, and that too just before the legislators themselves have to seek mandate from the people to represent them? One US study has shown that Musharraf is one of the most popular leaders in Pakistan. It would be infinitely better if that had been ascertained in a genuinely free and fair election after he had become a civilian and the Electoral College itself was elected freshly.

Those who question the legitimacy of the presidential election are pinning hopes on the Supreme Court declaring Musharraf ineligible to contest the election on purely legal and technical grounds: that constitutionally he cannot be both chief of army staff as well as president. I have my doubts that the Supreme Court will reach such a decision, especially because some judges in the current court have already accepted his right to do so because of the seventeenth amendment which legitimized the Provisional Constitutional Order. But we all have to wait and see what the court will say on October 17 when the verdict is due on this question.

More disconcerting and demoralizing is the decision of the Musharraf government to withdraw corruption charges against politicians. Such a policy has been described as reconciliation. Ms Bhutto is evidently the main beneficiary of this presidential decree. I wonder where this leaves Nawaz Sharif because he too has many such corruption charges against his name. The question is that if the charges against Benazir were genuine then there is absolutely no reason why they should now be dropped. How can a poor nation of 165 million afford to have its exchequer be robbed allegedly of $1.5 billion by someone in whom they reposed their trust? Equally, how can they respect a president who drops charges of corruption of such staggering magnitude simply to ensure his own political survival?

Ms Bhutto should insist that a proper enquiry in all the corruption charges against her is made by an impartial authority even when she can start temporarily playing the role of prime minister. Only a retired justice of the Supreme Court whose credentials are impeccable should head such an enquiry.

I think the Pakistani people have great patience and understand that we do things differently, but Benazir has not yet arrived in Pakistan. We know that some people in the Musharraf camp feel jilted because of his overtures to Benazir. Ijazul Haq, for one, has sounded quite disappointed of late. Benazir may be a more practical person who understands that without making compromises with the military she cannot come to power, but for Ijazul Haq to sit in the same room as the PPP chief would be difficult. After all, his father overthrew her father and masterminded his execution. If nothing else he should have a bad conscience.

I am sure there will be many other complications in the weeks and months ahead even if the Supreme Court validates Musharraf's election as president. How will the ministries be divided and shared between the Musharraf and Benazir camps? The Chaudhris of Gujrat will have to accept some curtailment of their power. Equally, Benazir will have some difficulty in convincing Aitzaz Ahsan to accept that his leadership and legal skills in the movement for the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry were in actual point of fact meant to facilitate a deal on power-sharing between her and Musharraf.

If somehow Musharraf and Benazir do manage to strike a deal and establish stability and a credible resistance to the Talibanisation of Pakistan then the people of Pakistan will surely forget the finer points of democracy and democratic elections. The MMA is hardly a source of inspiration for those who take democracy seriously. One way to generate doubt in the democratic process is to use it to advance undemocratic agendas and the MMA are past master in that art. Misogynist rules and regulations that their government has enforced in NWFP should suffice to run away from such democracy.

Besides all this, we know that Maulana Fazlur Rahman is no longer a reliable spokesperson for MMA interests. He is inclined to give President Musharraf a chance and that means that the MMA camp has been weakened.

But we need to suspend all our speculations and analyses on the future of Pakistan till the Pakistan Supreme Court gives a definitive verdict on the election of Musharraf as president of Pakistan on October 2, 2007 by an electoral college badly in need of receiving a fresh mandate from the people of Pakistan.

[The author is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore. email- isasia@nus.edu.sg Courtesy News Pakistan.]

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Musharraf’s popularity at all-time low: US survey

IF you tell an average Pakistani that a high profile survey has revealed that majority of people think that the country is heading in a wrong direction and the present government does not deserve to be there for its poor performance, he will not be surprised. In fact, he would marvel at the need of any such survey at the first place.

Nevertheless, the survey conducted by the International Republican Institute [IRP] of the ruling US Republican Party found last fortnight that 56 per cent of the people felt their economic condition had worsened over the past one year and 65 per cent said they felt less secure today. Are Musharraf and his baker American president George Bush listening to this voice of the people?

Also, majority the Pakistanis  are  opposed to a deal between President Pervez Musharraf and Pakistan People’s Party chairperson Benazir Bhutto brokered  by the American government. Over the course of the past three IRI polls, voter opinion on a potential deal between President Musharraf and Ms Bhutto has somewhat see-sawed. Thirty-five per cent supported the deal while 49 per cent opposed. Even voters, both the PPP and the ruling PML who indicated that they would support such a deal were decreasing compared to the June poll.

The poll was conducted between August 29 and September 13 and the randomly selected sample consisted of 4,009 men and women from 256 rural and 144 urban areas of 60 districts in the four provinces.

The survey noted: “As the national mood continues to sour, President Musharraf continues to bear the brunt of this voter dissatisfaction and his approval rating has dropped to an all-time low of 21 per cent, from a high of 63 per cent in September 2006.”

The percentage of voters saying that President Musharraf should resign increased by seven points to 70 and his favourability rating dropped by 13 points to 22. Further, when asked to name the best leader for Pakistan, Gen Musharraf dropped to third place, behind both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

In February 2007 opinion poll, President Musharraf’s re-election was supported by 50 per cent while 40 per cent opposed it. Since then, his support has seen a consistent drop. Now support for his re-election dropped to 23 per cent with 74 per cent not supporting him.

 PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif cemented his image as the real opposition leader challenging President Musharraf’s rule. His image was also helped by the unfolding drama of his return to Pakistan after over six years of exile. His favourability rating remained at 53 per cent, up three points from June, and he polled 15 points in the “Best Leader for Pakistan” category, with 36 per cent of voters selecting him. His “Best Leader” number was high in Punjab where he was the choice of 55 per cent of those surveyed.

Ms Bhutto’s positioning as a ‘sometime opponent’ of President Musharraf as well as a ‘potential partner’ has cost her dearly. Those selecting her as the best leader declined slightly to 28 per cent (down four points). However, Ms Bhutto was still leading in Sindh and Balochistan, although she came in third in Punjab and the NWFP. Dramatic was a drop in her personal image, with her favourability rating dropping 18 points.

62 per cent agreed that I the army should not any political role while 30 per cent disagreed, representing an increase in opposition to army.

When asked if President Musharraf should resign as army chief, 76 per cent said yes (up from 62 per cent in June). And when asked if Gen Musharraf should retain the role in order to promote stability (an argument often used by the government) 76 per cent disagreed, indicating that this line of reasoning did not carry any weight with them.

An astonishing number of voters say the country is headed in a wrong direction. Continuing the trend witnessed in IRI’s June poll, the number of voters saying the country was headed in the wrong direction rose to 73 per cent, while those saying the country was headed in the right direction decreased to 19 per cent.

When asked about their personal economic condition over the course of the upcoming year, 27 per cent responded that it would improve, while 22 per cent said it would get worse.

When asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement “I feel more secure this year than I did last year”, 23 per cent said they agreed (down from 39 per cent in June) while 65 per cent said they disagreed (up from 56 per cent in June).

When asked how the government has performed on the issues most important to them, 22 per cent gave the government good marks while 75 per cent rated its performance poorly. An overwhelming majority stated the ruling coalition did not deserve to be re-elected.

Voters’ party preference for the coming elections witnessed some drastic changes between IRI’s June and September polls. Mirroring the changes in leader preference and popularity, PML (N) moved 17 points into first place with 36 per cent, while PPP slipped into second with 28 per cent. The ruling PML, which previously had remained relatively steady, found its support giving out due to political turmoil, slipping seven points into third place at 16 per cent.

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