Issue 50 Vol III, October 31, 2007

T H I S  O U R  N O R T H  A M E R I C A

Global Warming: Longer Summers in the Making
Khushwant Toor

Global warming awareness campaigns around the world have been educating and scaring the public for a while now. Science centers around the world are analyzing environmental data and are concluding that the damage has already been done. Reading such alarming reports one fears, if the earth will turn hot like planet Mercury one day.

UN's Global Environment Outlook are  astronomical and  the predictions  grim ; 23 per cent of mammals face extinction, one in 10 of the world's great rivers now run dry every year before reaching the sea and a vanishing polar ice cap will send flocks scurrying for high land.

Here in Toronto or as a matter of fact for the most part of North America, 2007, summer was expected to be a very hot one; surprisingly more than being hot it has turned out to be a long summer. It is end of October; still one can dare to go to work in a shirt. Now it is being predicted that it will be short winter. Only time will tell weather it will be a longer/colder or a shorter/mild summer.  Here is an insight into one of the recently published report, which can help us form an opinion about the coming winters.

A report published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which is part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder reported meltdown of Arctic sea ice caps to a record level in the 2007 melt down season.

The report mentions that the Arctic sea ice during the 2007 melt season plummeted to the lowest levels since satellite measurements began in 1979. The average sea ice extent for the month of September was 4.28 million square kilometers, the lowest September on record, shattering the previous record for the month, set in 2005, by 23 percent. At the end of the melt season, September 2007 sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000. If ship and aircraft records from before the satellite era are taken into account, sea ice may have fallen by as much as 50 percent from the 1950s. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 is now approximately 10 percent per decade, or 72,000 square kilometers (28,000 square miles) per year.

Arctic sea ice has long been recognized as a sensitive climate indicator. While a number of natural factors have certainly contributed to the overall decline in sea ice, the effects of greenhouse warming are now coming through loud and clear.”

Scientists at NSIDC conclude that one factor that contributed to this fall’s extreme decline was that the ice was entering the melt season in an already weakened state i.e. the spring of 2007 started out with less ice than normal, as well as thinner ice. Thinner ice takes less energy to melt than thicker ice, so the stage was set for low levels of sea ice this summer.

Another factor that conspired to accelerate the ice loss this summer was an unusual atmospheric pattern, with persistent high atmospheric pressures over the central Arctic Ocean and lower pressures over Siberia. The scientists noted that skies were fairly clear under the high-pressure cell, promoting strong melt. At the same time, the pattern of winds pumped warm air into the region. While the warm winds fostered further melt, they also helped push ice away from the Siberian shore.

Arctic sea ice receded so much that the fabled Northwest Passage (which represents a shortcut from Pacific o Atlantic) completely opened for the first time in human memory. In addition to the record-breaking retreat of sea ice, NSIDC scientists also noted that the date of the lowest sea ice extent, has shifted from usually September 12 to September 16. Changes in sea ice extent, timing, ice thickness, and seasonal fluctuations are already having an impact on the people, plants, and animals that live in the Arctic.

One senior scientist at the NSIDC responsible for analyzing data gathered by commented that, “The sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return. As the years go by, we are losing more and more ice in summer and growing back less and less ice in winter. We may well see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer within our lifetimes.” The scientists agree that this could occur by 2030.

Scientists estimate that the effects of the climate change combined with overpopulation and weather crises, climate disruptions will affect more people than does war. Scary is not it!

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Canadian spy agency slowed Air India probe

RCMP were eager to approach the woman as soon as it learned about her evidence, but still had to wait for the spy agency's approval before doing so.

Canada's spy agency had advised the police not to follow its investigative leads in the Air India bombing case, an ex-sergeant has testified before the inquiry commission.

Former RCMP Supt Ron Dicks on Tuesday told Justice John Major that the refusal by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, to fully disclose details of a key witness frustrated police during their probe into the June 1985 Air India bombing plot that killed 329 people.

"It is requested that no investigative action be taken by the RCMP 'O' Division based on the information contained in this surveillance report without prior consultation with Toronto Region," Canadian spy agency said in a note to the police.

CSIS had made contact in 1987 with a key witness, dubbed Ms E, who had incriminating evidence about suspect Ajaib Singh Bagri, which was not provided fully to the RCMP until 1990, he submitted before the commission.

RCMP were eager to approach the woman as soon as it learned about her evidence, but still had to wait for the spy agency's approval before doing so.

"The flow of information in my mind was still something that was slow and bureaucratic," Dicks, retired since 2002, said.

When the police sought information from CSIS about the movements of another key suspect, Ripudaman Singh Malik, in the spring of 1987, the agency only offered "snippets" of its surveillance report, Dicks said.

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Non Resident Indians Top in Remittance

Indians working abroad last year sent $25.7 billion or roughly Rs 1, 28,500 crore home. They beat China and Mexico to make India as the top remittance receiving country in the world. The latest data released by the World Bank reveals that Mexico with $24.7 billion, China with $22.5 billion and the Philippines with $14.9 billion followed. If these countries had the prosperity and employment levels as the west and other host countries, they would have added much more wealth.

It is not clear whether World Bank estimates take into account the money transmitted through hawala route. If that is not considered for that estimate, then the total money reaching India could be much more. Some estimate it near 50 over cent more.

Any way how much is this money? This sum received by India through this route is roughly the same as the country’s total estimated annual expenditure on defence, or about five times the estimated expenditure on education for 2007-08. Total income tax and wealth tax collections in the country are less than the remittances received. And they are over three times the foreign direct investment in the country in 2006.

It is not one way movement of money. People working in India remit $1.3 billion, though this is just a fraction of the top remittance-sending country, the US ($42.8 billion). The World Bank data shows that remittance flows between under-developed countries have a significant share of global flows, nearly 47%.

Yet these NRI remittances make up only about 3% of India’s GDP. In several small poor countries, remittances are a much bigger share of the national economy. Thus, in Moldova, remittances are equivalent to 38% of its GDP. Other countries in which remittances are over 20% of GDP include Tonga, Guyana, Haiti, Lebanon, Tajikistan, Honduras and Jordan. In the Indian subcontinent, Nepal receives remittances equivalent to 15% and Bangladesh 9% of their GDP.

It is once again Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the lead to provide almost half of the total immigrants from India. These are followed by Karnataka, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Punjab. Over 25% of households in Kerala have at least one person working abroad.

Sheer numbers and relatively higher skill levels appear to be driving the growth in Indian remittances. The World Bank study estimates that the number of Indian immigrants is about 10 million. Mexico and Russia are the top immigrant sending countries with an estimated 11.5 million immigrants each.

Bulk of remittance is not from highly skilled professionals like doctors or software engineers, but by more everyday workers, wage employees and service providers. This is borne out by the fact that the business of wire transfer companies is booming, with estimated revenues of $15 billion in 2006 with margin of 30% as profit.

According to the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs, annual immigration for employment increased from about 2.79 lakh in 2001 to 5.49 lakh in 2005. Apart from this, the number of immigrants who are exempted from emigration clearance increased from 3.98 lakh in 2001 to 4.65 lakh in 2005.

For Indians, West Asia is the destination of choice for finding work.  Over 82% of official immigrants seeking employment abroad head for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar or Kuwait. Annual immigration for employment increased from about 2.79 lakh in 2001 to 5.49 lakh in 2005. Apart from this, the number of immigrants who are exempted from emigration clearance increased from 3.98 lakh in 2001 to 4.65 lakh in 2005.

For the monetary policy managers, excess capital flows pose problems in the form of higher money supply and the threat of inflation. To obviate this, the central bank has to sterilise such flows. Too much cash inflow means capital in circulation and the resultant inflation. Faced with the challenge of managing excess capital inflows, the central bank has sought to discourage part of these flows by slashing rates on deposits by 50 basis points, RBI has made it less attractive to park money in term deposits.

Also, Indians can buy more shares of MNCs in the foreign stock exchanges or a bigger apartment in a country of your choice, with RBI doubling an individual's limit to remit abroad from $50,000 to $100,000 in a year.

RBI has also allowed them to book forward contracts up to an annual limit of $1 lakh, which can be freely cancelled and rebooked. This monetary policy announced has also increased the aggregate ceiling on overseas investment by mutual funds to $4 billion, from $3 billion at present.

RBI has also liberalised its foreign exchange market to move towards full capital account convertibility. Under the liberalised remittance scheme, RBI said an individual can remit up to $1 lakh to any permitted current or capital account transaction or a combination of both.

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