Issue 50 Vol III, October 31, 2007

F O C U S

Punjab Prisoner of Destiny
Gobind Thukral

THE spate of publicity on the achievements of the Akali BJP government in Punjab would make any one laugh if not sad. Mere signing of a feasibility study for metros in Ludhiana and Amritsar is project in full page advertisements as major an achievement.

Prakash Singh Badal, the fourth time chief minister and his Akali Dal could not win power on its own. In fact, it just matched the Congress. Akalis secured just 49 seats. BJP, the coalition partner with 19 seats snatched the victory from the Congress that had won 44 seats and helped form the government.  Now it wants its pound of flesh and is no longer prepared to tolerate the overbearing attitude of the chief minister or his colleagues. Currently a war is on. This may not threaten the existence of the government, but is leaves it badly mauled. There is less cohesion among the Akali ministers. There are too many power centers budding all around. There is Sukhbir Singh Badal, the only son of the chief minister and currently acting president of the Akali Dal eagerly waiting to step in. He is not letting any occasion go take over from his father. Many ministers and legislators would perhaps not like to have a new chief minister.  Badal who has a national status. BJP has said no to this kind of inheritance. All this is adding to the disenchantment of the people.

Prakash Singh Badal is being drained not by the Congress, but his own cabinet colleagues and the BJP. The issue is fiscal management. Punjab by now has incurred a debt of over 52,764 crore and its rising every day. The state once leading other provinces is unable to collect enough to meet its planned commitments as it spends nearly 76 per cent of the taxes it collects on salaries and pensions. This government has no inkling to take the desperate farmers out of the agrarian crisis. It has no money as the vice chancellor of the Punjab agriculture Ludhiana Dr Manjt Singh Kang says for the much needed research in agriculture, but it can squander in grants elsewhere. Farmers committing suicides and suffering for growing more for the country too are in deep debt. Punjab is not projected to cross 6 per cent growth during the next five years when the country is poised to cross nine per cent.

School and higher education as everyone knows in Punjab is in hodgepodge state and health service is dwindling. Cities and towns are rotting like putrefied wounds. As Mr. Badal rightly points out the canal system to irrigate to a respectable level the fields needs an urgent doze of Rs 4,000 crore in next three years. Electricity generation and distribution besides roads and other infra structure needs another Rs 8,000 crore. Mr. Badal whose head is full of dreams; world class airports, sate of the art Adarsh schools in each block, universities and sports complexes besides first rate air conditioned bus service all over Punjab. In day dreaming father son duo has no match. But sadly have little clue to get the state out of the rotten position.

The attempt instead is to isolate those who might have ideas to get the state out of the present chaotic position. Mr. Badal’s nephew and finance minister Mr. Manpreet Singh Badal is currently the focus of attention. In newspapers interviews, he has clearly spelt out the present regime of subsidies [roughly 4,000 crore] as untenable. He may sound bitter when he says, “ideally we should cap it at the present Rs 4,000 crore annually or better still halve it. But I find our coalition partner, the BJP, is more responsive to capping subsidy than my own party. If we carry on the same way for another couple of years, bankruptcy will anyway force us to do away with freebies. Tax collections, which in a consumer-driven state like Punjab, should be Rs 15,000 crore annually, is just about Rs 5,000 crore. So this too needs attention.”  He is not wrong telling it publicly as he has failed to convince the chief minister and the government and is not scared of losing his position. “No sacrifice for Punjab is small and I am prepared to swallow the poison. If I prove wrong.”

The government has increased the rate of electricity supply, which is always in short supply and is erratic. BJP has raised serious objections and its ministers have repeatedly made their resentment public. Their objection is that urban consumers are being penalised and rural consumers who get free power for their farms are enjoying at their cost. They allege that this is unfair. There should indeed by one yardstick for all classes. BJP fears its support dwindling and it has been adequately demonstrated during the municipal elections in four major cities of Punjab. It also wonders with adequate numbers, it should not be denied the position of the deputy chief minister. Its leaders no longer wish to be just poor urban cousins of the rural commanders.

Mr. Badal keeps pleading with his colleagues and allies to take care of when they speak to the journalists and blames the media, the messenger for the ills of his coalition politics and populist measures. Old war horse is busier in publicity campaigns, wasting public funds than governing. Common is frustrated as he has neither dignity nor any economic advantage from the present setup. Those who throng the Sangat Darshan of the chief minister with small complaints tell their own tale of neglect and harassment at the hands of the administration. The rulers need to remember and Punjab is a modern state and no one fiefdom and at stake is not their rule, but the future of our children.

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17th Conference of Chinese Communist Party, China Rejects Western Model
Swaraj Singh

During the 17th conference of the Chinese Communist Party, it became clear that China is going to follow its own model of development and socialist reconstruction. China is going to forge ahead to probably become the largest economy of the world by the year 2020. Hu Jin Tao, the President of China, who is also the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, in his key note speech, said that the per capita GDP in China will quadruple by 2020. He said that this phenomenal growth will be achieved by increasing efficiency and reducing utilization of the resources and preserving the environment. In the last four years, the GDP has risen more than 10% per year.

Hu Jin Tao said that intraparty democracy is going to be increased. There will be more transparency in the party’s affairs and no one individual or small group will be allowed to impose its will on the others. He said that the principles of democratic centralism and collective leadership will be promoted. The Politburo will regularly report to the plenary sessions.

Hu Jin Tao made it clear China does not intend to become another Western style hegemonic superpower. He said that China will not join the arms race and will not try to establish hegemony. China’s defense policy will only be for national defense and not to scare other countries with its military power. He said that China will oppose hegemonism, power politics, and expansionism. China will support a peaceful resolution of the international issues. It will try to promote cooperation to increase global and regional security. China will oppose all kinds of terrorism. China will adopt an accommodating attitude to the genuine concerns of the developing countries. China will support all international efforts to promote independent development of the developing countries and efforts to improve the lives of their people. China will also support efforts to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor countries. China will never profit at the expense of the other countries and it will never dump its problems on the others.

Hu Jin Tao showed Eastern humility compared to the Western arrogance. He said that China has made many achievements, but still has not met the expectations of the Chinese people. He said that some Chinese officers are extravagant, wasteful, and corrupt. He admitted that the Chinese people are still facing difficulties in the matters of employment, housing, social security, and education. China is committed to reducing gaps between the rich and the poor, between the rural and the urban areas, and between the coastal areas and the inland.

It was made clear in the conference that China will not follow either the Western democracy or the Western model of development. It was emphasized that socialist democracy and socialism with the Chinese characteristics will be promoted. Hu Jin Tao said that China will oppose the arrogant and bullying attitudes. China will promote simplicity and revolutionary enthusiasm.

There is no doubt in my mind that China is destined to be the most powerful country before the middle of the century. The rise of the East and decline of the West are two major trends of the twenty first century that is going to be known as Asia’s century.

[Swaraj Singh is  M.D. F.I.C.S. Chairman, Washington State Network for Human Rights]

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Power Play of a New Dalit Avatar
Jyotika J Thukral

WITH her ambition soaring and the new slogans catching the imagination of the people, Ms Mayawati is aiming at a prime role at the national political landscape. The crown of victory that she wears after her Bahujan Samaj Party won a clear mandate in Uttar Pradesh during the elections in May this year, has given wings to her ambition. It was after 14 long years that the electorate chose one single party to deliver them prosperity and justice. If her new social engineering scheme, where  scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and the minorities  and the upper classes come together to form a formidable combination to dethrone other political parties can succeed in India’s  deprived and most populated state, it can work wonders elsewhere too, she feels.

But unlike earlier such social engineering under India’s oldest living party, the Congress under this new arrangement upper caste plays a subservient role to the Dalit. And, that is no small departure. “We first awakened and united the Dalit, the improvised and exploited people who had suffered ignominy for centuries at the hands of the upper castes, and then approached the upper castes for cohesive work to create a new egalitarian or equal society at the social and political levels. Results are there for all to see”. She tells crowded public meetings and press conferences.

Behnji as she is popularly addressed, this 51 year old former teacher born in the house of a cobbler is not an anathema for the Manuwadis, staunch believers in India’s rigid caste hierarchical system. Despite that only recently she was hurling abuses, they seem to be happy working for her.

Her other winning mantra is unnerving the Congress and the Hindu dominate high caste party, the BJP. She wants reservation both in the private and the public sector for schedules castes, scheduled tribes, minorities and the poor from the upper castes. Other parties have been talking in muted voice to include the poor from the superior castes, fearing they might not lose the lower castes. Mayawati makes no bones and declares at the top of her voice that the poor from so called privileged classes be included. Congress has already lost a sizeable chunk of the Dalit vote to BSP, and BJP is fast losing the higher castes to this new party in the Hindi speaking areas.

Mayawati was recently profiled by the US magazine Newsweek among eight women leaders worldwide who have reached the top despite all odds, with the Dalit leader narrating her struggle to rally the oppressed community.

Writing in the magazine, she says her aim is to replicate the victory in the other states and prepare for the bigger struggle to capture power in New Delhi. Mayawati says her party initially needed an aggressive approach to rally the poor Dalits. 'Political parties dominated by upper castes got alarmed by the rising masses. Their opposition cut short each of my first four stints as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh and it became clear we needed to broaden the base to include the poor irrespective of caste or religion.'

At another level, knowing fully well that parliament is badly divided on the issue of 33 per cent reservation for women in legislatures and parliament; she has upped the demand to 50 per cent. “It should be proportionate to the population of women. We shall accept nothing less. I have already written to the prime minister and we have raised the issue in parliament.”

All this emboldens her to go alone during the elections whether for the state assemblies or parliament. Once she has a respectable number, she could stake claims.

At the level of ideology she is a different iconoclast, demolishing icons and myths while creating new ones. Here is a take on Gandhi at her meet the press programme at the sprawling Chandigarh Press Club on October 27. She was asked for long time she was berating the Manuwadis and now she looked to be closer to Gandhi. She denied any links to Gandhian ideology, outrightly rejecting it while accepting Mahatma’s position in the freedom struggle. Her ideologue is someone else; Dr Ambedkar considered an architect of the Indian constitution.

“It was Dr Ambedkar and not Mahatma Gandhi, who worked to erase the caste from Indian society. he tried to unite the weaker sections of society and bring them closer to the upper castes. There is no doubt about it. As far as Gandhi is concerned, he tried to divide society into two groups and even gave a name to the weaker sections. He called them Harijans which is against the Constitution. In the Indian Constitution, the weaker sections are called Scheduled Castes and Tribes.  The ideologies of the two leaders ran parallel to each other but Ambedkar had never tried to ''divide'' the society into two sections. Both Gandhi and Ambedkar walked different ways. While Babasaheb (Ambedkar) strived hard to unite different sections of society and became the voice of the oppressed lot, Gandhi divided society by calling the weaker sections 'Harijan.” Its usage in the media is barred.

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Rising Infant Mortality in Punjab

After feticide in India’s prosperous Punjab, saving lives of infants is causing deep worries. Despite comparable less poverty, Punjab’s infant mortality rate continues to rise. For 1,000 live births, infant mortality in Punjab is 44 compared to Kerala’s only 14. West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu with very high percentage of poverty-stricken population are better in the care of their infants compared to Punjab. In overall deaths, including infants, children, adults, middle-aged persons and the old, share of infant deaths is high in Punjab. It is 12 per cent compared to Kerala’s 3 per cent. It is of little consequence that it is less than the national figure of 18 per cent.

 Official figures based on the latest sample registration system, Registrar General of India say Barring Punjab; all developed states in the country were able to reduce their infant mortality level between 1981 and 2005.  Infant mortality fell by 62 per cent in Kerala, 47 per cent in Gujarat, 45 per cent in Tamil Nadu and by 39 per cent in Maharashtra. But it fell by 39 per cent in Punjab.

Punjab’s bias against females is reflected in the number of deaths. Female death rate is 1.17 per cent, which is more than that of male death rate, above the national average of 1.09 per cent and is more than that of male death rate. That shows that the girl child is still neglected. Punjab continues to be the land of girl killers. This skewed male ration has serious consequences. Punjabi boys, particularly from the poor sections are finding it difficult to get wives from Punjab. More and more brides are coming from Bihar, Bengal and even from Kerala.

 Infant mortality rate is 44 per 1000 live births. In West Bengal, percentage of poor population is 27 per cent but infant mortality rate there is 38 per 1000 live births. In Tamil Nadu, percentage of poor population is 21.1 per cent but infant mortality rate is just 37 per cent. Compared to urban areas, situation is rather bad in rural areas of Punjab. Of 1,000 live births, 49 infants die in rural areas of the state. However, the figure is 37 per 1,000 live births in urban areas.

In Kerala, 93 per cent deliveries take place in hospitals compared to Punjab’s figure of just 37.5 per cent. Poor health services in the countryside and gender bias are said to be main reasons for high infant mortality rate in Punjab.

Punjab is unlike to achieve the national target of bringing   down the infant deaths to 30 per 1000 live births by 2010 and to 28 by 2012.

Meanwhile India will possibly be the only country ever to have 2 billion people? The Population Reference Bureau found in a new projection series   that under the two scenarios prepared for this study, India's population would near the 1.8 billion mark by mid-century and may even exceed two billion by 2100 unless fertility rates decline rapidly in India’s poorest states.

India passed the one billion population benchmark in 2000, and stands at 1.1 billion in 2007.  Population growth has been outpacing economic growth. India was the first country to adopt a policy to slow population growth in 952  1952, the country's total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from  six children per woman to  three, but fertility levels vary greatly throughout India's vast territory.

The decline is greater in its southern states, which have long had much higher rates of literacy and education than northern states. The southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu now have TFRs below two children per woman, lower than the U.S. rate. To reduce the national TFR, fertility decline will have to occur in other parts of India.

The large states of the north, the "Hindi Belt," hold the key to the future size of India's population. About 40 percent of Indians live in this region.  Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, with about 93 million and 188 million people, respectively, are already larger than most of the world's countries. Both states currently have a TFR of about 4.3 children per woman.

Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will grow much more quickly than Kerala and the low-fertility states because of their higher fertility. Their statistical "weight" in India's total population will increase. One assumed that states with a current TFR above "two children" would decrease to 2.1 and then remain constant. The other assumed the TFR decline would continue until it reached 1.85 children per woman.

The population projected for Uttar Pradesh ranges from 353 million to 364 million by 2051, and between 414 million and 480 million by 2101. The projected 2101 total for India ranges from 1.9 billion to 2.2 billion, depending on the assumptions for each state.

Will India's population reach 2 billion? It is a real possibility if fertility does not decline at a faster rate in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and the other poor states that account for a growing share of the nation's population.

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