Issue 60 Vol III, March 31, 2008

A N A L Y S I S

Punjab slowest moving state in India
Gobind Thukral

IF the present rate of growth continues, Punjab would be laggard state India, far behind the bemaroo states like Bihar and Orissa. Today, the disturbing truth is that economically Punjab is at the bottom in terms of growth during the 11th Plan [2007-2012]. Even poverty-stricken states like Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, are growing at an economically much faster pace than Punjab.

And, Punjab should thank its past and present rulers for bringing this magnificence! Three cheers for the Congress, Akalis of course for the BJP.

India’s Planning Commission that observes and monitors economic fundamentals of growth in its latest assessment of the 11th Plan document of the states finds Punjab to be outpaced soon as a leading agricultural state. Its assessment shows that Punjab average growth during the 11th Five-Year Plan will be 5.9 per cent, much lower then the project national growth of 9 per cent. In fact, national economy is already growing at 9 per cent.

While the small state of Goa will be the fastest growing state with  12.1 per cent growth and  among the major states, Gujarat  and Karnataka will be the economically fastest growing at 11.2 per.

The neighbouring Haryana will be growing at 11 per cent, almost at double the rate of growth of Punjab. The left governed West Bengal that suffers the butt of criticism from the reform lobbyists will be growing at 9.7 per cent. Other states are charting a handsome growth rate; Himachal Pradesh at 9.5 per cent, Uttaranchal at 9.9 per cent, Andhra Pradesh at 9.5 per cent, Maharashtra at 9.1 per cent, Jharkhand at 9.8 per cent and Nagaland at 9.3 per cent. Orissa will be growing at 8.8 per cent, Tamil Nadu at 8.5 per cent, Chhattisgarh at 8.6 per cent, Bihar at 7.6 per cent, Rajasthan at 7.4 per cent, Madhya Pradesh at 6.7 per cent, Arunachal Pradesh at 6.4 per cent, Assam at 6.5 per cent, Jammu and Kashmir at 6.4 per cent, Meghalaya at 7.1 per cent, Mizoram at 7.1 per cent, Sikkim at 6.7 per cent, Tripura 6.9 per cent, and Uttar Pradesh 6.1 per cent.

Only other state bracketed with Punjab as the slowest is Manipur   with its growth rate of 5.9 per cent. Among the union territories, the growth rate of Andaman and Nicobar Islands has been projected at 5.4 per cent, Chandigarh at 13.5 per cent, Delhi 11.2 per cent and Puducherry 9.1 per cent.

Even in the agriculture sector, that is considered the backbone as well as strongest fundamental of Punjab’s economy will be almost at the bottom at the growth chart of this sector. While Punjab’s agriculture sector will grow at an average of 2.4 per cent, Bihar will grow at 7 per cent, Jharkhand 6.3 per cent, Gujarat 5.5 per cent, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra each at 4.4 per cent, Tamil Nadu at 4.7 per cent, West Bengal at 4 per cent, Karnataka at 5.4 per cent, Haryana at 5.3 per cent and Andhra Pradesh at 4 per cent.

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Iraq War: Five Years Later, No End in Sight
Sawraj Singh

FIVE years have passed since the start of the Iraq war yet no end seems to be in sight. President Bush’s claim of victory in the war looks completely false. Either the President is detached from the realities or he is not telling us the truth. There were two declared goals of the war. One: to find and destroy weapons of mass destruction, and the second: promoting democracy in the Middle East. None of the two objectives have been fulfilled.

The weapons of mass destruction were never found. President Bush claimed at the time of invasion that he was informed by the American intelligence that there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. However, the CIA has denied that it gave any firm information about the weapons of mass destruction. No wonder, no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq.

The Iraq war has not promoted democracy in the Middle East. It has actually hurt the cause of democracy there.  Moreover, the definition of democracy has also been changed in the Middle East.  People should elect the government that is liked by the western countries; otherwise the West is not going to accept their verdict. People voted for the Hamas in Palestine and for the Hezbollah in Lebanon, but that was not acceptable to the West. Basically, the West wants governments there who will toe its line.

We have spent more money in the Iraqi war then in the Second World War, yet peace does not seem to be an achievable goal. More than 4,000 Americans have been killed in Iraq. 97% of these people were killed after President Bush had declared that the war was over in 2003.

It’s true that last year less Americans were killed than the year before, but it is not because there is less violence. The type of violence has changed. After the Americans were able to win over some Sunni tribes, the Al Qaeda labeled them traitors and made eliminating them as its top priority.

The Shias were the main American allies, but they are not happy with America reaching out to the Sunnis. Therefore, they have moved even closer to Iran. America has blamed Iran for the recent attacks on the green zone. Both the Sunnis and the Shias have considered the Kurds in Iraq the American lackeys, yet Turkey, an American ally, is punishing them.

One casualty of the Iraq war is Afghanistan. Violence in Afghanistan has been steadily growing. The NATO and the American forces are now unable to control the violence there. The NATO is asking for more troops in Afghanistan. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have showed to the World that America is no longer a superpower because it cannot fight two wars at the same time even with very small countries. The Army has been overstretched in these two wars.

President Bush seems to have retreated from his theory about the “Axis of Evil.”  He was calling Iran and North Korea part of the Axis of Evil.  However, he is not considering attacking those countries. Russia and China have started asserting and projecting their power. Russia has started challenging the West in Europe, while China is expanding its influence in Asia.

Most of the world sees America as a loser in Iraq. President Bush should start paying attention to the world opinion. Both of the democratic Presidential candidates have announced that they will withdraw the American forces from Iraq.  Hilary Clinton will withdraw the American forces in 60 days and Barack Obama is for a phased withdrawal.  President Bush should accept the reality in Iraq and spare America and the rest of the world more harm.

[Sawraj Singh M.D. F.I.C.S. chairman, Washington State Network for Human Rights]

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Sri Lanka burns and burns
Micky Sharma

THE month of March, just like all the other months of this year has been a bloody one for Sri Lanka. Violence has risen and frequent attacks by the Sri Lankan Army on LTTE camps have resulted in ever-rising death toll.

As the government has stepped up its offensive against the LTTE, there is a rising concern that these irrationally thought out strategies might cost the people of Sri Lanka dearly. According to government estimates over a 100 LTTE men were killed in operations carried out by the Sri Lankan government in March.

Even after having lost all major international aid due to the alleged human rights abuse happening in the ongoing war, Sri Lanka is still managing to stave off any major financial obstacles. This is mainly due to the fact that China has increased its aid. Even the Sri Lankan foreign secretary Palitha Kohona had admitted when he said the country’s major allies of the past had receded into some distance and the loss of that aid was now being made up by some new-found allies form the East. China is playing some cool politics. It sees Sri Lanka as the perfect opportunity to make inroads into the Indian Ocean.

The Mahinda Rajapaksa government has its own motives for creating all the hype around its crackdown on the LTTE. The way the have made politics a family affair, makes a dwarf out of the nepotism prevalent in Indian politics. There has been a major increase in the defence purchases and a selected few are allegedly filling their kitty.

There is a lack of understanding in the Sri Lankan government that the world over, internal conflicts have never been solved by the gun. The recurring incidents of violence might give the impression of success. But in the long run, it will make the already wounded Sri Lankan psyche bleed even further. All promises of devolution of power to provinces and minorities are proving a pipe dream. President Rajapaksa had told visiting South Asian journalists in August last year that within months, it would be done. Even despite the all party meeting  having given  its nod to the proposal, there has been no mention of any change coming up in the existing system. This will lead to further unrest among the minorities, especially the Tamils who have been protesting the unjust policies and the bias of the government.

Sri Lanka needs to get its house in order if it wishes to keep a check on the unrest within and also on the international backlash on it falling human rights record. Only way out of a war is a negotiation.

But the approach that Sri Lankan government has pursued in the last few months goes against the common rationale. History proves that in a fight of the masses versus the government, the people end up getting the better of their adversaries. A revolution after all is started and completed not by the government, but by the people. Violence might help Sri Lankan government win  minor battles, but they will end up losing the bigger war; the war to win back not the lands but the people who inhabit them.

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