Issue 61 Vol III, April 15, 2008

F O C U S

Chronology of events in Nepal

THIS is how the Maoist war began and the journey so far is.

1994 - The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is founded by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known by his nom de guerre, Prachanda.

Feb 1996 - Maoists, who oppose the Himalayan country's constitutional monarchy, launch a "people's war" to establish a single-party communist republic.

1996-2000 - The Maoist launch a low-intensity insurgency and target ill-trained and poorly armed police.

2001-2005 - The Maoists attack army barracks and steal modern weapons, and drag the army into conflict that turns into a full-scale guerrilla war. They begin attacks on district capitals, army posts and intensify transport strikes, choking Kathmandu of essential goods such as fuel.

Feb 2005 - King Gyanendra takes absolute power, vowing to crush the Maoists.

Sept 2005 - Maoist rebels announce a unilateral ceasefire but royalist government rejects it.

Nov 2005 - Maoists join a loose alliance with the seven main political parties to end royal rule.

Jan 2006 - Rebels end ceasefire.

April 2006 - King Gyanendra gives up absolute power after widespread protests. Veteran politician Girija Prasad Koirala, sworn in as prime minister, invites rebels for talks.

June 2006 - New government agrees with Maoists to dissolve parliament and form interim administration that includes rebels.

Nov 2006 - Prime Minister Koirala and rebel chief Prachanda sign a peace deal, ending a civil war that killed more than 13,000 people.

Jan 2007 - Parliament scraps old constitution and adopts new interim constitution. Maoists control 84 seats in the 329-member interim legislature.

Dec 2007 - The ruling alliance and the Maoists agree to abolish the monarchy after the elections.

Feb 2008 - Ethnic Madheshi groups call a strike demanding autonomy which brings much of the economy to a standstill.

Feb 2008 - The government seals a deal with most Madheshi groups to end the protests.

April 2008 - Maoists go to polls in historic elections, Nepal's first in nearly nine years and emerge as the strongest political force.

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Nepal: Maoist Victory, Rejection of Western Neo-Liberalism
Sawraj Singh

THE recent victory of the Maoists in Nepal is an event of great historical significance. It clearly shows that the third world is rejecting Western neo-liberalism. Gandhi became a model for Western liberals for the third world. However, the majority of the third world rejected the Gandhian model of development and a majority of the countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America gained independence by armed struggle against their colonial masters.

It will not be an exaggeration to say that India was an exception rather than the rule where independence was achieved by the Gandhian philosophy, in most other countries of the third world, Mao’s way proved more relevant.

At present, when the West is promoting Dalai Lama as a symbol of neo-liberalism for the third world, the victory of Maoists in Nepal is sending a strong message that the third world is still rejecting the model promoted by the West. Dalai Lama has become a great hero for the Western neo-liberals, but Mao remains a hero for many people in the third world.

The victory of the Maoists in Nepal will have a tremendous impact not only in Nepal, but will also have a profound impact on India and the rest of the world. It sends a loud and clear message that the Western impression, that because of their control over the media, they can control the world, is a false impression.

There is a clear difference between the West and the third world on the issues of Tibet and the Olympics. Whereas most of the Western countries are promoting Dalai Lama as the real hero and China as a villain, most of the third world countries do not agree with that and have actually the opposite feelings. This was obvious in the way the Olympic torch was received in the Western and the third world countries.

India remains even now an exception in the third world. India is the only third world country where the Chinese embassy was attacked by the Tibetans and negative feelings have been expressed about the Olympic torch marching through Delhi. Some Indian intellectuals, journalists, and even some pseudo-Marxists have been influenced by the Western neo-liberalism and have been taken in by the Western false propaganda against China.

Nepal, by electing Maoists, has become the first country in the Indian subcontinent that has moved closer to the mainstream third world and Asia. The Nepali Maoists have made it clear that they want to follow a balanced policy towards India and China and will maintain equal relations with both countries. However, unlike India, Nepal will surely side with Asia and the third world in their struggle against the Western domination.

One of the reasons for the victory of the Maoists is that they have shown real flexibility. They want to even study the Gandhian model of development. However, the question is: has the Gandhian model of development succeeded in India? The pillars of the Gandhian model of development were decentralization of power, promotion of an indigenous model of development, and encouraging rural and cottage industry. It is clear that India is following exactly the opposite model of development. India is the most enthusiastic advocate of the Western imperialist globalization. Contrary to Western propaganda, China continues to follow an alternative path to the Western-dominated globalization.

[Sawraj Singh MD FICS is Chairman, Washington State Network for Human Rights]

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Inflation Strikes the Poor Hard
Gobind Thukral

CLEARLY inflation rising at 7.41 per cent last week has hit hard the most vulnerable, the poor. The demon of rising prices has upset the budgets of middle and lower middle income groups and everyone seems to be nervous, more so when the prime minister and finance minister, both great economists declared that they could hardly do much. It has upset the economic growth calculation which was over 9 per cent and may be down to 8 per cent. With rising unemployment and little tickling down from the economic growth to the poor, the situation is indeed explosive.

India’s inflation is high today because of food prices, crude oil and commodity prices and vegetables. India is a marginal importer of wheat, a large importer of edible oils and pulses and a very large importer of fertilisers. The government admits India is vulnerable to very high prices of food. Yet its own policies about import and export and monetary markets only push inflation to higher levels. The measures it has taken now should have been in place long time back. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and planning commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia and even Dr Manmohan Singh have been stubbornly predicting only moderate price rise.

The tragedy is that the government knew about the inflationary trends, yet woke up when the proverbial water crossed its limits. Even now there are only threats and no serious measures. The Left parties on whose support the Congress stays in power had warn been warning for the past two years against rising prices. These parties had suggested that government must take fiscal and administrative measures like adjusting import and export duties, complete ban on speculation in food commodities and controlling run away prices through a better and an efficient public distribution system.  Good governance could save over one lakh tonnes of wheat and rice in government warehouses which is either eaten away by rodents or wasted. Its procurement agencies are corrupt and inefficient to the core. Fully loaded goodstrains with food grains just disappear. Food Corporation of India is nicknamed as food Corruption of India. And, for valid reasons. Then it has been playing foul with the farmers, the growers of food.

Take the case of Malaysia. Inflation is kept around 3.5 per cent. Petrol is priced at Rs 26 per liter and food prices at a check. Electricity and gas is cheaper than India. A good quality flat of three bed rooms that cost over Rs one crore in Chandigarh costs less than  half in Kuala Lumpur, capital of Malaysia. There is a degree efficiency in government functioning. And a good annual growth is maintained.

But in India P. Chidambaram has only warned of “strong measures” to moderate prices if some sectors behave “irresponsibly”. We have taken fiscal measures ... We will not hesitate to take more measures even if it means sacrificing some revenues that are badly needed for social sector expenditure." The public is sick of hearing all this.

Government seems to be waking up as it is worried about the political fall out. If the inflation is not controlled and brought to some tolerable level, the Congress should forget of winning next elections. Though it is true that BJP now waiting in the wings to capture political power has no hard solutions in mind. Its sympathy for the traders who are fleecing the public is so well known.

Commodity markets regulator Forward Markets’ Commission has now said futures trading in the US market were responsible for rising commodity prices. The Indian market is entirely a retail market, driven by small hedgers, producers, exporters, importers, processors or small speculators. Speculation and forward trading should be treated as sin and big crime. Commodities such as steel were witnessing a strong price because of speculation. Yet government has protected and encouraged forward trading and speculation.

Many including the World Bank are warning of food riots. World Bank says “Rocketing global food prices are causing acute problems of hunger and malnutrition in poor countries and have put back the fight against poverty by seven years”. Price of wheat had risen by 120 per cent in the past year, more than doubling the cost of a loaf of bread. Rice prices were up by 75 per cent in just two months. On average food prices have risen by 83 per cent in the past three years.

Another reason for worldwide rise in food prices is the dash to grow crops for biofuels. American, Canada and European countries besides even south eastern Asian countries like Malaysia have encouraged wider use of such fuels to tackle climate change and provide an alternative to oil. This policy means diversion of agricultural land away from food. Europe and the U.S. must stop adding fuel to fire by increasing crop production for biofuels. These have dubious environment benefits, and by driving up prices, are crippling the lives of the poor.

Africa will be the hardest hit continent from rising food prices. More than 20 African countries will see their trade balance worsen by more than 1 per cent of GDP through having to pay more for food.

Riots have broken out in several countries as a response to the rapid rise in the cost of basic foodstuffs over the past 12 months. Pakistan, Bangladesh and many other countries in Asia and Africa are witnessing violence over food. Indian scene is worrisome as people struggle to feed themselves. Rising process of food and its shortage stare in the eye of an agriculturally dominated India and Pakistan. Food is scarce and its prices prohibitive for at least   for half of Indians [30 crore] and Pakistanis [8 crore].

According to World Food Programme, nearly half of Pakistan’s 160 million people are at risk of going short of food due to a surge in prices. The number of people deemed “food insecure” had risen 28 per cent to 77 million from 60 million in the previous year.  Prices for rice, vegetables and cooking oil have also risen sharply, and the economic hardships faced by ordinary people played a big part in an election in February that resulted in President Pervez Musharraf’s political allies being thrown out of government.

Fewer Meals

In Asia and Africa, the situation is really bad. In India, Pakistan and Bangladesh two kilogram of rice now consumes almost half of the daily income of a poor family. With little margin for survival, rising prices too often means fewer meals. Poor people in are now spending more than a quarter of their income on bread. This is not just about meals forgone today, or about increasing social unrest, it is about lost learning potential for children and adults in the future, stunted intellectual and physical growth.  World Bank says, “Even more, we estimate that the effect of this food crisis on poverty reduction worldwide is in the order of seven lost years.”

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New Beginnings
Ishtiaq Ahmed

NOW, with the process of transition to civilian rule complete, the question many of us have in mind is: have we finally crossed the threshold from convoluted paternalistic military rule to a genuinely responsible democratic government?

It is too early to say anything with certainty, because this is not the first time that civilian rule and democracy have been restored after a long spell of military and quasi-military rule, only to be supplanted by another military takeover. The fact that Pakistan lacks strong democratic institutions suggests that a repetition of that vicious circle cannot be discounted. There are, however, some grounds for optimism.

The vision of government spelled out by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is progressive, balanced and realisable. He wants to establish the rule of law, cut drastically the spending on the Prime Minister's House, provide cheap housing to the poor, stimulate the economy so that new jobs can be generated and eliminate the curse of terrorism, but not through military action alone. He would like to devise a comprehensive strategy which includes political and economic measures as well. He has also promised to make the minorities feel that they are an integral part of the Pakistani nation.

Pakistan will function as a genuine federation and provincial autonomy will be respected. With regard to Kashmir, he favours a fair and peaceful settlement of that dispute. He declared relations with China as unbreakable and expressed a strong desire to develop good relations with the United States and the European Union. Diaspora Pakistanis can only wish him success, and lots of it.

Perhaps in some future pronouncements the rights of women could receive special attention, because it is too important a question on which progressive reform and change is needed. No society can progress and claim to be civilised and humane if it neglects gender equality and does not act resolutely to curtail domestic violence and exploitation of women.

Also, a revolutionary change must be effected in the educational policy so that all citizens of Pakistan can claim the right to education as an inalienable human right. Pakistan lags behind India in many ways when it comes to education. The difference is particularly noticeable in the evolution of a very large Indian middle class that is more educated than it is wealthy. In Pakistan, a broad educated middle class is largely absent. Also, a comprehensive policy would be needed to not only alleviate poverty but to eradicate it. This will take a long time, no doubt, but it must be given priority.

Feudalism and tribalism should be wiped out and industrialisation given priority. There is no doubt that the market economy is the best way to utilise the factors of production. The market can generate wealth most efficiently and effectively, but it has no mechanism to distribute wealth equitably. Therefore, government policy will have to be devised to achieve a fair society.

In this regard, a new vision on the environment is also needed. It was somewhat surprising that the prime minister did not spell out the broad contours of his environment policy. Some reports suggest that Pakistan will become a desert in 40 years if global warming is not arrested. We have to do our bit to fight global warming, but indeed it is a threat that can be met effectively only through regional and global cooperation.

Pakistani towns and cities are already suffering a great deal because of pollution, filth and neglect of sewerage facilities. I believe along with India and Bangladesh we constitute the biggest bulk of humanity that defecates out in open space. Many diseases thrive in such conditions. We are a proud people indeed, but I find little pride in the continuation of public defecation. Community toilets and urinals are badly needed all over Pakistan.

More importantly, we need a thorough discussion on the philosophy of representative government, democracy and human rights so that all sectors of the polity -- the state apparatuses, the elected government and parliamentarians, the judiciary, as well as autonomous bodies such as universities, chambers of commerce, trade unions, and human, women and civil rights actors, are educated into their functions and responsibilities from which they can also claim rights.

The military will have to focus on its chief professional responsibility of maintaining a credible defence.

As someone who has never believed in the nuclearisation of India and Pakistan, I am now resigned to the fact that only comprehensive, worldwide nuclear disarmament can eliminate the threat of nuclear war from the world. India and Pakistan are not likely to give up their arsenals while others keep them. I have heard from visiting Indian speakers at Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies that only after India carried out its nuclear explosions in May 1998 did the world began to give it respect.

Additionally, sound economic policy and concomitant financial and fiscal reforms helped India gain even greater respect from the world. I suppose Pakistan already enjoys such "respect," but what is needed now is emphasis on developing the economy and steering clear of vain military adventures.

Imagine Pakistan and India living in peace, their economies growing and their populations receiving better education and more opportunities to work hard and prosper. In the next 20-30 years this region could become the centre of the world. The greatest strength of South Asia has been its amazing capacity to accept pluralism of faiths, ethnicities and languages. Fundamentalist movements in this region have been trying hard to destroy this grand mosaic, but they should not be permitted to succeed.

What is missing in South Asian societies is respect for the individual in general and a tendency to deny humanity to those born poor. We need to cultivate and internalise a culture of human rights which is the greatest gift of the liberal heritage of the western civilisation.

The writer is a professor of political science and a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore. Email: isasia@nus.edu.sg. Courtesy News International Pakistan

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Bombing in Pakistan: Is America Listening?

STATES like individuals rarely learn from their own experience. America may not be an exception. Otherwise it should have known long time back from the days of Vietnam and Cambodia that its modern vicious war machines, its bombs and napalm gas and even its industrial might leads the world no where except, of course to more destruction. Its lethal cloak and dagger polices work now where. These only end up as these begin, feeding its war machine and industrial complex. These time interestingly even wars or rather attack on Iraq and Afghanistan has brought no dividends except enriching the contractors and oil companies. The economy despite wars and heavy spending of billions of dollars is slipping into recession and George W Bush, the 43rd American president is butt of jokes.

Pakistan, long time a client state where American supported military dictators and its armed forces have ruled the roost for more than half of its 60 years of independence is history; the Americans are being told every passing day to mind their own business. This is to put mildly what is being stated in the   newly elected national parliament and state assemblies

 Newly elected assembly of the North Western Frontier Province, the most volatile area of Pakistan in its first meeting assembly passed a unanimous resolution calling on the federal government to take serious note of a statement made by United States CIA Chief Michael Hayden.

Hayden had said the US was interested in targeting the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan where he said Al Qaeda had been planning attacks against the West. Awami National Party’s (ANP) Mian Iftikhar Hussain tabled the resolution. Hussain said all differences should be resolved through dialogue and not by use of force. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) parliamentary leader Pir Sabir Shah said Pakistan’s integrity was “in danger” because of “US interference”. PML-Quaid (PML-Q) parliamentary leader Qalandar Lodhi condemned what he called “foreign interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs”. ANP President Asfandyar Wali declared the democratic process had begun and the provincial assembly “will sit together, analyse the situation and devise ways and means of how to talk to the Taliban and resolve the problem”. Wali said his party was in contact with “some of the Taliban” and wanted to resolve the problem by peaceful means.

And, the young 42 year old chief minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti declared in no uncertain language that the use of force in the past made it harder to bring peace to the province. He said his government would, instead, promote dialogue at all levels. “We’ll make every effort to restore peace in the province. We’ll form traditional jirgas for peace.”

[Hoti is the youngest and 24th chief minister of NWFP. He is the first one to be elected unopposed in the history of the province. And his other distinction is that he became the first nominee of the Pukhtoon nationalist movement, now represented by the ANP, to hold the office of chief minister after Pakistan's independence.]

Pakistan has said that any action by NATO forces in the tribal areas of the country will be considered as violation of its sovereignty.

Foreign office spokesman Muhammad Sadiq, at the weekly briefing here, dismissed a statement by US CIA chief that threatened targeting the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan where, he said, Al Qaeda had been planning attacks against the West.  Pakistan has repeatedly said any attack inside its territory would be unacceptable.

“All counter-terrorism measures inside Pakistan will be taken by our security forces. We have also repeatedly stressed that if any country has any specific, actionable intelligence, it should be communicated to us and our security forces will take action based on that information,” the spokesman added.

According to Foreign Office Spokesman Mohammad Sadiq Pakistan also  advised the United States to refrain from creating an impression of ‘divergences’ on counter-terrorism and speaking about direct action in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The US government was also cautioned that any unilateral action could undermine and complicate the fight against terrorism. “Such actions, as we have already stated, will be irresponsible and dangerous,” said the “For the success of our counter-terrorism efforts, it is important to focus on effective cooperation … rather than talking about actions that would further complicate our … efforts to fight Al Qaeda and other terrorists.”

His remarks come in the wake of US government’s doubts expressed by some circles in the United States about the commitment of the new Pakistan government to the war against terrorism, especially after Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani’s offer to hold talks with militants who renounce violence.

According to reports in the American media, the US has intensified direct strikes in tribal areas on terrorist targets because of apprehensions that the new government in Islamabad would not allow such attacks.

“We are combating terrorism in our own interest. We do not want our efforts to be undermined by any ill-conceived action from any quarter that is inconsistent with principles of international law. Such actions would be deeply resented in the tribal areas and generally in Pakistan,” the spokesman said.

He said that cooperation with the US and its allies was well-defined and well-understood. If any country has any specific, actionable intelligence, it should be communicated to us (Pakistan) and our own security forces would take action.

Here is once a client state and choreographed as the frontline fighter against terrorism speaking its mind. America ought to be listening.

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