Issue 62 Vol III, April 30, 2008

T H I S  O U R  N O R T H  A M E R I C A

Canadian Economy – Signs of Slowdown
Khushwant Toor

FUEL costs are soaring each hour, groceries are getting  expensive, jobs are being slashed, exports are slated to  be all time low and the real estate hot  seller’s market is turning  in to a bargain hunter’s or the buyer’s market. These are the dreading predictions for the next some years for the Canadian Economy.

Last week the Bank of Canada said a dramatic weakening in exports will cause the national economy to struggle, however will narrowly avoid stalling completely. Exports which account for almost more than 40 percent of gross domestic product may start to strengthen as the U.S. economy revives in 2009, but will not show solid growth before 2010 says the bank report. High Canadian dollar value is the culprit behind most of the export related losses.

Some economists predict that there will be a general weakening in the Canadian economy, but don't believe it will turn into a recession. A recession is defined by most economists as a significant decline in activity across the country spread over at least two fiscal quarters. Unemployment goes up, consumer spending goes down and companies cut back on production, often in a spiral-like effect. Comparing the U.S. economy on similar terms many economic analysts believe the United States has already slipped into a recession. The U.S. economy grew by just 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2007. The results for the first quarter of this year will be reported this week.

Rising gasoline prices are hurting the consumer spending confidence in Canada. At present in most of the states petrol costs around $1.26 per liter. It is expected that the prices will hit a $1.40 per liter mark by the mid of summer this year. Some analysts predict that the gas prices will continue to rise and will reach $2.25 a liter by 2012.  Higher gas prices have drained the trucking industry of its profits. Higher transportation costs have started to show its wrath on almost everything on the shelves which people buy.

The Canadian real estate market which has been a pillar of strength over the last decade is also showing signs of slow down. However, unlike the U.S. housing markets, the prices are still stable in Canada. In a report published by the Toronto Dominion Bank on April 10, 2008, TD Economics predict that Canada’s major housing markets will experience cooler conditions over the course of 2008 and throughout 2009. This moderation is not expected to lead to a housing downturn.

The report further mentions that the sales of existing homes started accelerating sharply early in the decade, rising from below 300,000 units in 2000 to above 500,000 units in 2007, while new home construction jumped from below 160,000 units to hover around the 220,000 mark over the past four years. However, it is now expected that the national average home price growth to slow from a torrid 11% in 2007 to 6% in 2008 and down to a 4% pace in 2009.

Amidst the discouraging reports, Prime Minister Stephen Harper maintains his position that the country's strong economic fundamentals will help Canada weather the storm. Mr. Harper is taking strong criticism for his optimism from the Liberal opposition leader Stephane Dion who accuses the governing Tories of mismanaging the economy and putting the national accounts perilously close to a deficit. The opposition parties argue that the aggressive tax cuts and spending programs brought in by the Conservatives have left the fiscal cupboard bare, leaving the government with little room to respond to a slowing economy.

In an effort to help the Canadian economy survive these tough times, the Bank of Canada recently has lowered its prime lending rate by 0.50 basis points and a series of similar cuts are still expected in the near future. How soon the Canadian economy will pick is a question, answer to which lies south of the border in the U.S… and, there is every evidence of recession setting deep.

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Business of Education
Canada and Australia offer work permits

BOTH Canada and Australia in order to feed their starving universities are now lenient in allowing Indian and other foreign students to work in their spare time. This can help these countries attract more students, while the students too can add up to their incomes to fund the costly education.

India is the second largest source of overseas students and a significant contributor to Australia's international education market, which is worth Australian $12 billion ($11 billion) to the national economy. A total of 34,146 student visas were granted to Indian citizens in the year ending June 2007. Overall 228,592 students from 191 countries got visas during the same period.

Canada has allowed foreign students to obtain an open work permit under the Post-Graduation Work Permit Programme with no restrictions on the type of employment and no requirement for a job offer.

A Canadian High Commission release said in Delhi, “Effective immediately, and for the first time, these international students would be able to obtain an open work permit under the Post-Graduation Programme, with no restrictions on the type of employment and no requirement for a job offer. In addition, the duration of the work permit has been extended to three years across the country. Previously, the programme only allowed international students to work for one or two years, depending on location”.

Canadian minister of citizenship and immigration Diane Finley who has been extra strict with visa system says, “The government of Canada wants more foreign students to choose Canada. Open and longer work permits provide international students with more opportunities for Canadian work experience and skills development”.

This will, in turn, help make Canada a destination of choice, and help us keep international students already studying in Canada. The increased flexibility offered by the expanded programme will benefit graduates and employers alike as the programme will help international students get important work experience while responding to Canada’s labour market needs. Canada will benefit in the long run as the professional experience gained will help graduates meet the requirements to stay permanently in Canada. It is better way to migrate and work in Canada than through dubious means and be cheated by agents. It would discourage kabooterbazi, euphuism for illegal immigration.

Finley pointed out, “As we move toward the implementation of the Canadian Experience Class, these changes will help create a pool of individuals who, with work experience, will find it easier to apply for immigration to Canada. Our ability to retain international graduates with Canadian qualifications, work experience and familiarity with Canadian society, will help increase our competitiveness and benefit Canada as a whole”.

The Post-Graduation Work Permit Programme allows students who have graduated from an eligible programme at a post-secondary institution to gain valuable Canadian work experience. However, international students studying under Canadian Commonwealth Scholarship Programme, Government of Canada Awards programme or those receiving funds from the Canadian International Development Agency will not come under the new scheme, the release said.

There is good news for thousands of Indians studying in Australia as changes to the visa system, coming into effect on Saturday, will give them automatic right to work in the country.

The Australian government has made changes to its visa system so that Indian citizens studying in Australia will automatically become eligible to work part time during their courses.

Australian Minister for Immigration and Citizenship Senator Chris Evans said: "Under new processing arrangements, which come into effect April 26, all student visas will be granted with work rights attached, removing the need for people to make a separate application."

Until now, Indian students had to apply separately for permission to work part time while pursuing their studies in Australia. The changes mean that Indian students can now apply for part time jobs and work for up to 20 hours per week as soon as their courses start. It will reduce red tape for students wanting to work in Australia.

Under the new arrangement, Indian citizens would also have to shell out less for the overall student visa fee.

The minister said: "Applicants from India will now be charged Australian $450 (Rs.17, 000) for the visa and work permission, a saving of $40 (Rs.1, 500) on the previous arrangements."

The process for applying for a student visa has also been streamlined. Successful applicants will now not need to have an Australian visa label in their passports as evidence of their visa grant. Instead, their visa information will be stored electronically for access through the Visa Entitlement Verification Online (VEVO) service.

The advantage of the online service is that it allows employers, government agencies, education providers and the visa holders themselves to check visa conditions such as expiry date, work and study restrictions.

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America and environment degradation: too little, too late
L.K.Verma

AMERICA, the world’s super power and industrial giant is the biggest emitter of green house gases. It has world’s 6 per cent population and consumes 46 per cent of world’s resources; gas, petrol and other assets. It also produces more weapons for mass destruction than any other country and spends equal to the rest of the world in the production of weapons, armaments and army.

Under intense pressure from home and across the globe, an adamant Bush administration that stubbornly struck to the old pattern of energy consumption and exploitation of other resources is now waking up. Or is it feigning.

According to respected Center for America Progress [www.americanprogressaction.org] In a Rose Garden speech yesterday that was "greeted with relief by global warming skeptics in Congress and energy lobbyists on K Street," President Bush "called for a national goal of halting the growth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, mostly by curbing power plant pollution." Bush's voluntary goal, however, is one "that the scientific community says is too little, too late, to prevent dangerous global warming." "The growth in emissions will slow over the next decade, stop by 2025, and begin to reverse thereafter, so long as technology continues to advance," said Bush. In other words, "Bush is calling for rising CO2 emissions for another 17 years," despite the fact that the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, says that "if there's no action before 2012, that's too late." "Scientists of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded last year that global greenhouse gas emissions must begin to drop by 2015 in order to avert drastic climate change, a timetable that would compel developed nations to turn that corner even earlier." "Europe has agreed to reduce its emissions 20 percent and pledged to 30 percent by 2020 if the U.S makes a comparable commitment," notes John Passacantando, the executive director of Greenpeace USA. "After squandering seven years, President Bush still refuses to respond to alarm bells," says Daniel J. Weiss, the Director of Climate Strategy at the Center for American Progress. At a time when most agree that "forceful action is required to save the planet, Bush has empty words are not very different from silence."

Bush puts another road block

"Bush's trick on climate change," wrote the Washington Post's Dan Froomkin yesterday, "is to wait until others are about to embrace mandatory limits on greenhouse gases, then making a major speech about goals and process, without any specifics on measures or penalties." Here was another attempt by the White House to derail any legislation.

The speech as expected drew "a fiery response" at the Paris conference, where South Africa branded it "as a retreat from previous US positions that would leave the United States 'alone against the overwhelming majority of the world.'" According to Froomkin, Bush's speech "recalls his two earlier attempts to muddy the debate and buy time." In the spring of 2007, Bush made "a clear move to derail European and U.N. plans for strict caps on emissions" by proposing "a new round of international meetings that would take up most of the rest of his presidency. The purpose of the meetings, he said, would not be to write rules but to establish what the White House called 'aspirational goals.'" Again in the fall of 2007, Bush gave a speech that "superficially gave the appearance of favoring a global reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions," which "again embraced unspecific goals and voluntary compliance that left other nations and serious advocates unmoved."

The Washington Times broke the news that Bush was "poised to change course and announce that he wants Congress to pass a bill to combat global warming." The immediate reaction from the right wing was anger and bewilderment. Iain Murray of the Competitive Enterprise Institute said that Bush was offering "unconditional surrender on global warming" and that conservatives had to "get very, very angry about this." In an op-ed, Washington Times columnist Tony Blankley called it a "global-warming assault on free economies," while the National Review's Christopher Horner declared that "the president will have caused harm by embracing the global-warming agenda, regardless of the specifics of what he calls for today. The moment he legitimizes the agenda, he will have lost control of the issue."

Faced with a backlash from its conservative and business base, the White House watered down its already watered-down proposal. According to the Washington Times, "the president has backed away" from calling for "a cap-and-trade program for electric utilities" after "the White House was flooded with complaints from industry officials and lobbyists." Even the Senate's top climate change denier, Sen. James Inhofe was placated by Bush's speech, calling it "a fairly moderate position to take."

According to the Center for American Progress the White House was laying out "just another way of Bush saying no," the administration was patting itself on the back and claiming to be an international leader in the struggle to address climate change. "The United States has launched -- and the G8 has embraced -- a new process that brings together the countries responsible for most of the world's emissions," as Bush claimed in his speech. It is laughable to say the G8 has 'embraced' Bush's farcical Major Economies meetings" as "they have accepted it because they have no choice."

In the White House press briefing yesterday, James Connaughton, the chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, compared the Bush administration's efforts to those of Europe and Canada, saying, "We are the only three that have" stated mid-term goals for reducing emissions. But as Brad Johnson of the Center for American Progress Action Fund points out, European countries are seeking to actually reduce emissions to 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 while Canada is aiming to simply reduce to 1990 levels through a plan that former Vice President Al Gore calls "a complete and total fraud." In contrast, Bush has set "no target" for actually reducing emissions while allowing emissions to keep increasing until 2025.

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