Issue 63 Vol III, May 15, 2008

E D I T O R I A L

Tangled political web in Pakistan

Pakistan’s hapless people, suffering for long from an insensitive and cruel military dictator had hoped that the political class would learn some lessons and ameliorate their lot. They voted enthusiastically as they looked towards a new democratic dispensation that would take care of their economic woes and usher in peace and social development. It was not a tall agenda. They faced lathis; bullets and imprisonment to see democracy once again flourish in a country that has had long spells of military dictators. Their prayers and hopes seemed rewarded when most mainstream parties agreed to form a coalition government at the federal and provincial levels to avoid the pitfalls of a fractured verdict.

That dream is turning sour at a time when Pakistan is facing a deepening economic crisis. Economy is slowing down; prices are mounting, unemployment shooting up and food becoming expensive and scarce. The paralysis that has gripped the country since March 9, 2007, continues to inflict troubles like an expanding trade deficit, increasing fiscal imbalances, increasing food and energy prices, slowing down of manufacturing sector and worse a declining agricultural output. Over 70 per cent people still live by farming one way or the other.

There is an alarming increase of the people below poverty line. One recent Asia Development Bank estimate asserts that soaring food prices will be severe in Pakistan and a 10 per cent increase in prices will add another 7 million to the number of poor people. And in the event of food prices increasing by 20 and 30 per cent, the increase in the number of poor people would be 14.67 million and 22 million, respectively. We all know that in a low income country, an increase in food prices always aggravates income inequality as about half the expenditure of an average Pakistani will be on food. The impact on inequality had become much sharper because of the 18.3 per cent rise in food prices during the first quarter of 2008. Foreign and domestic investments are declining and there is a disturbing steep fall in the rupee’s value against dollar in recent days. Add to this the turmoil in Balochistan and border areas.

What more could dismay the public than the coalition government coming to the brink? PPP leadership including Asif Zardari has failed to honour its word given at Murree that 60 ousted judges including Supreme Court chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry would be reinstated by April 30. Long protracted talks between PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif in Dubai and later in London only produced another deadline May 12. That too passed. This forced nine PML-N ministers holding charge of 15 federal ministries to quit the government on May 14.

The failure of the coalition partners to hammer out their differences on the demand for reinstatement of the deposed judges is a serious issue, though more pressing issues knock at the doors of the rulers. Soon, very soon, despite hopes expressed by PPP leaders that the issue would be resolved, the judges, lawyers and the civil society now backed by Nawaz and his party would hit the streets with noisy demonstrations. This spectacle would mean joyous feelings for the military dictator, now a self imposed President Pervez Musharraf and his cohorts.

Interestingly as the entire country finds a serious political crisis, on the judges' issue, PPP Co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari on MAY 14 rejected that the issue has created a severe crisis in the country. He claimed without much evidence that the resolution for the restoration of the deposed judges would be tabled in the joint sitting of parliament.  He asserts, "We are committed to the Murree Declaration and preparing a draft of the resolution for the restoration of the judges.” Intriguingly he blamed the media for portraying a grim picture as if the country was undergoing a severe crisis, but in his view the situation was not so grave. Media may be better counseled as some draconian measures may be in the offing.

If the PPP leaders see the writing on the wall and avoid a show down, it would be a big day for Pakistan. Pakistan today needs some sagacious leaders. Are there any?

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