Dr Swaraj Singh writes from Washington

THE two most significant developments just took place in the Indian subcontinent, inauguration of the Maoist leader Parchanda as the Prime Minister of Nepal and departure of Pakistan’s President from the political scene. Both the developments point to the declining American influence in the world and India’s decreasing influence in South Asia.
In Nepal, the pro-Indian party, Nepal Congress that has ruled Nepal for the last fifty years was badly beaten in the elections by the Maoists. Parchanda’s first state visit will be to China when he will be participating in the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. Not only Nepal is bound to move away from India toward China but the Maoist movement that is posing a growing challenge to the Indian state, will receive a tremendous boost.
Musharraf’s ouster will invariably lead to the strengthening of Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan. Musharraf was politically finished in Pakistan the day he sent the army to attack the Red Mosque. The American defeat in Afghanistan now looks almost certain. No area in Afghanistan is safe from the Taliban, including the American military bases. Karzai is not only on the retreat but seems to have lost his mental balance also. He is the only one in the American camp who is rejoicing Musharraf’s departure when the reality is that Musharraf’s ouster will only strengthen Karzai’s enemies. Obviously his perception of reality is distorted.
The humiliating defeat suffered by Georgia is actually a very clear indication of the declining American influence in the world. When President Bush and Condoleezza Rice talk about punishing Russia they seem to forget that Russia holds many cards to retaliate.
Europe has become very dependent on the Russian energy. Russia supplies about 40% of the European energy needs. America celebrated Kosovo’s independence even though it was against the United Nation’s mandate now the Russians are paying back in kind in Ossetia and Abkhezia.
America is arming Russia’s neighbors such as Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, and the Czech Republic. However it does not realize that even in this race Russia holds the ace. Russia can arm Iran. Whereas the Russian neighbors can never be expected to attack Russia, Iran will not hesitate to attack Israel.
It appeared that America’s response to the growing influence of China, resurgence of Russia and the rise of the Islamic fundamentalism was to form an alliance of America, Israel, and India. Now it appears that this alliance is in shambles. America is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel cannot even control Hezbollah leave alone the entire Middle East. India is facing a dual challenge from the Maoists and the Islamic fundamentalists. The Indian Prime Minister has acknowledged that the Naxalites (Maoists) have become the biggest internal security threat. Recent developments in Kashmir have shown that it is becoming increasingly difficult for India to control this area. With Musharaf gone and strengthening of the Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan, the situation in Kashmir is likely to become worse. India will be too much occupied by these developments and will not be of much use to America as far as countering the growing influence of China.
India should very seriously reconsider joining the anti-Chinese, anti-Russian, and anti-Islamic alliance. Such an alliance may lead to disastrous consequences. The traditional neutrality may be the only option. India’s traditional friendship with Russia emerged out of India’s true needs. India should not overestimate its strength and take upon China.
[Sawraj Singh, M.D. FICS is Chairman Washington State Network for Human Rights]

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Afghanistan: Taliban fill power void in Kabul?

Anand Gopal of IPS writes from Kabul

THE ambush that killed 10 NATO soldiers outside of Kabul on , the worst battlefield loss for western forces since the war began, was the capstone in a week of high-profile insurgent activities in Afghanistan.
Although North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces returned fire, killed dozens of rebels and repelled the assault, the attack was a major propaganda victory for the Taliban and highlights a growing predicament faced by western officials: the insurgency appears to be growing in confidence despite losing most battles with international forces.
Nearly 100 rebels ambushed a team of French soldiers with rockets and mortars in a mountain defile near Sarobi, a town about 30 km to the east of the capital city. In addition to the 10 dead, 21 were wounded in what became an hours-long firefight in which the U.S. provided air cover for their beleaguered allies.
In response to the assault, the largest loss of French personnel since a suicide bomber struck the French embassy in Beirut in 1983, French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrived in Kabul Aug. 20 to reassure French forces.
Insurgents staged an ambitious assault on a U.S. military base in the southeastern province of Khost. A car bomb detonated outside the base's main gate, killing 10 civilians, and a second car bomb nearly did the same before Afghan Security forced shot the driver dead.
The next day up to 30 guerrillas fired rockets at the base while a volley of suicide bombers rushed towards the gates. U.S. forces repelled the assault, but the insurgents' complex offensive drive signals their swelling confidence.
"The Taliban are stronger and more confident," says Waliullah Rahmani of the Kabul Center for Strategic Studies. "They are launching more complex attacks and have grown more assertive."
According to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), the armed coalition that NATO heads, hundreds of Taliban fighters have been killed this year. One senior NATO official says that most battlefield engagements have led to spectacular losses for the rebels, who are often killed in large numbers.
But despite such losses, the Taliban's willingness to absorb large losses and focus on staging high-profile attacks mean that stabilising Afghanistan may be more complicated than simply sending more troops, say analysts. "This is a regional problem. Without political change in Pakistan, even 200,000 NATO soldiers won't be enough," Rahmani says.
Afghan and U.S. officials have repeatedly pointed to Pakistan's role in providing a safe haven for insurgents, and some officials say that without disrupting the insurgent networks there, defeating the Taliban-led insurgency is impossible.
"The struggle against terrorism is not in the villages of Afghanistan," President Hamid Karzai told reporters recently. "The only result of airstrikes is the killing of civilians." Karzai says that instead the U.S. should focus on attacking targets in Pakistan and moving against rogue elements in the Pakistani security apparatus.
U.S. officials also point to the steady influx of foreign fighters, possibly from Iraq, who drift across the Afghan-Pakistani border and bolster the insurgency. "We do see evidence in the tactics and techniques used by the enemies in our sector indicating a foreign influence," U.S. Army Director of Public Affairs Rumi Nielson-Green says. "That is why a strategy of counterinsurgency is necessary not only in Afghanistan but throughout the region."
U.S. forces have repeatedly fired missiles into Pakistan but Pakistani officials claim that mostly civilians have been killed because of these strikes. Moreover, authorities in Islamabad refuse to allow U.S. troops to openly enter Pakistani soil, fearing a massive anti-U.S. and anti-government backlash.
But analysts say that the Taliban's confidence is fuelled not just by safe havens and support in Pakistan but because of the political situation in Afghanistan. "People have lost faith in the government," says Habibullah Rafih, a political analyst and member of the Afghanistan Academy of Sciences. "More guns won't solve this problem," he says, referring to the possibility of more U.S. troops in the region. "Reconstruction money has gone in the wrong pockets, and NGOs and government officials are seen as corrupt, meaning some people in the provinces are turning to the Taliban."
As the rift between Afghans and the government grows, insurgents are filling the vacuum. More than half of Wardak province, just 45 minutes from Kabul by road, is under the direct control of the Taliban, according to the SENLIS council, a European think tank.
Insurgents are increasing their presence and cover of Logar province, just to the south of the capital. Last week, Taliban fighters there ambushed a vehicle from the International Rescue Committee, killing three foreign aid workers and one Afghan.
In the neighbouring Ghazni province, residents report that Taliban presence is widespread and two districts -- Newa and Ajrastan -- are under the Taliban's complete control. "The Taliban controls the courts, the police, even the district government," in these two districts, says Fazel Wali, a teacher in the area.
Even in the Afghan government’s apparent victories there lies a scent of defeat. More than 7,000 police flooded Kabul’s streets on Aug. 18 for the country’s Independence Day celebrations after authorities warned of impending insurgent attacks.
The extremely tight security prevented any attacks in the capital, but the government also cancelled public Independence Day celebrations for the first time in years. "The Taliban were able to stop the celebrations without even lifting a finger," says Hamid Asir of the National Union of Journalists. [Courtesy IPS]

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