Dr Sawraj Singh

WILL the present economic crisis lead to a third World war? If we look at the previous two World wars, then this becomes clear that both the wars were the result of economic competition and crisis. The First World War was fought primarily because the rising economy of Germany was challenging the monopoly of the British. The Second World was the direct result of the great depression of the thirties.
The present economic crisis is very likely to lead to a third World war. We are already seeing the indications that the American policy is leaning towards starting a third World war.

Some of these indications are:
• Signing of America – India Nuclear treaty.
• Attacks on Pakistani territories; with the pretext of fighting terrorism.
• Supplying Taiwan with six and a half billion dollars worth weapons.
• Recent attack on Syria, again under the pretext of combating terrorism.

The alignment of forces at this time appears to be America, India and Israel on one side and China, Russia and the Islamic and a majority of the third World countries on the other side. Europe will be divided, countries such as England, Romania, Poland and Czech Republic joining America, while most of the old European countries such as Germany, France, Turkey, Spain and the Scandinavian countries playing neutral or some even switching sides.

The result of the third World war at this stage appears to be different then the last two World wars. This time China, Russia and the third World countries appear more likely to win the war. Why do I feel this way? All the three major wars after the Second World War have been won by the side which was supported by China.

The first major conflict was in Korea. General Douglas MacArthur wanted to defeat China through Korea and by his own admission could not achieve his goal. The second major conflict was the India – China war. This was also a proxy war between America and China. This point is very well made by Neville Maxwell in his book, India’s China war. Therefore the defeat of India in this war was actually on American defeat.

The third major conflict was in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos (Indo China) America lost this war also. The conclusion, China won three out of three major conflicts of the contemporary World.
How is this American Presidential election related to the preparations for the third World war.

Historically, America is more likely to elect a democrat before a major war. It was Franklin Roosevelt whose social policies, the new deal, helped America to win the Second World War. Obama can draw most of the European countries towards America and he can also influence the American youth. Therefore, I feel that Obama is more likely to win this election.

[Dr Sawraj Singh, M.D. FICS is Chairman Washington State Network for Human Rights]

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India ranks 66th on global hunger index

THE UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), which has acknowledged that bio-fuel programme as one of the factors responsible for the present global food crisis, however, has not called for a moratorium. It has only suggested making an in-depth assessment of its risks and possible benefits.

An FAO report 'The State of Food and Agriculture-2008' said, "A variety of factors have combined to raise food prices to the highest levels since the 1970s (in real terms) with serious implications for food security among poor populations around the world. One of the most frequently mentioned contributing factors is the recent rapid growth in the use of agricultural commodities - including some food crops - for the production of bio-fuels."

"The emergence of bio-fuels as a new and significant source of demand for some agricultural commodities - including maize, sugar, oilseeds and palm oil - contributes to higher prices of agricultural commodities in general, and for resources used to produce them," it said.

According to the FAO representative in India and Bhutan, Gavin Wall, who released the report in Delhi on Wednesday, the potential benefits of bio-fuels and farmers' income need to be considered.

Though the report said that the impact of bio-fuel on food prices and its potential to contribute to energy security, climate-change mitigation and agricultural development continue to remain as the topic for the debate, it however, recognized that the future of bio-fuels and the role they would play for agriculture and food security remain uncertain. Though the bio-fuels will offset only a modest share of fossil energy use over the next decade, they would have much bigger impact on agriculture and food security.

The report also found the impact of bio-fuels on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions varying widely, depending upon where and how various feedstock crops are produced. In many cases increased emissions from land-use changes may offset or even exceed GHG savings obtained through replacing fossil fuel use. Other concerns are the impact on water use, soil and biodiversity.

FAO pinned its hope on the second generation bio-fuels which may offer additional benefits and called investment on is research and phasing out of production subsidies and trade barriers in OECD countries.

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