WITHIN couple of weeks, six Indian states; Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir would elect new assemblies. Out of these three are ruled by the main Hindu party, the Bhartiya Janata Party and the Congress, ruling party at the Center controls the national capital Delhi. Mizoram is ruled by Mizoram National Front and Jammu and Kashmir is currently under central rule.

The Election Commission on October 14 announced election dates for Rajasthan (December 4), Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh (November 14 and 20), Mizoram and Delhi (November 29). Counting of votes would be taken up December 8. A week later, it declared seven-phased elections for Jammu and Kashmir, from November 17 to December 24 with counting on December 28. And, it rescheduled the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram to November
27 and December 2 respectively to provide more time for the deployment of security forces. Security is indeed major problem for this burgeoning democracy.

These elections are a test run for the general elections that could come up in March or a little later. BJP has to defend itself in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and snatch Delhi from the Congress if it wants to comeback to power at the center. These are large states and the stakes for each party are very high. This time there is a new powerful player, the Bahajun Samaj Party under Ms Mayawati along with the leftists to challenge the two main parties that have dominated the political scene at the national level for some years now.

It would not have been difficult for the Congress to seize power from the BJP a few months back. There is always an anti incumbency factor and dissatisfied voters hunt for an alternative grouping or a party. Now this may prove only partly right. There are two clear reasons for that; increased terrorist violence across India and the rising prices, falling jobs. There had been 63 blasts in seven states during the past seven months, killing scores of people and injuring hundreds. BJP with its divisive agenda of communalizing the polity is in an aggressive mood. It has earlier won a crucial election in Karnataka. Clearly it is spreading its fangs and on the issue of terrorism where it can afford to ‘annoy’ Muslims and seek majority Hindu votes. It has pushed the Congress on the back foot. Now no amount of chest beating and claims like indo US Nuclear Deal can spring it back to action. The Communists parted ways on the nuclear issue, leaving it lurching at the shoulders of Samajwadi Party. Its secular credentials too are under doubt. Its poor performance on the economic front that has worsened with deepening economic crisis in the West has added to its woes. It is only hoping without any real agenda that prices would stabiles and these could with falling energy prices and less demand for commodities, yet how shall it bail out itself from the general discontent and sense of insecurity gripping the nation.

The Congress over the past couple of years has become sluggish with no clear leader and clear decision making process. The experiment of having a weak but honest prime minister and a strong party president, the real power center has not worked well. No one owns responsibility. Mrs. Sonia Gandhi keeps sending missives to the prime minister about the plight of farmers and workers who pays scant attention without being disloyal as he heads an inefficient coalition.

Yet it is possible that the elections may not provide very clear answer as to who would emerge the winner later at the national level.

In Jammu and Kashmir with a daily mark of violence on its face, there are no clear signs for a stable political setup emerging. Kashmir valley is totally alienated from the center.
Mizoram National Front has decided to continue its ties with the Mizoram Congress Party and forge an alliance with smaller parties to come back to power for the third consecutive term amid speculation about a hung Assembly. Facing a strong anti-incumbency wave after ruling Mizoram for the past 10 years, the MNF has decided to have an electoral tie-up with the Maraland Democratic Front in South Mizoram and the Hmar People’s Convention in Aizawl district to secure the magic figure of 21 in the 40-member House.
The principal Opposition party, the Congress, has also entered into an electoral alliance with the Mipui Tangrual Pawl (MTP) or People’s Front by allotting six seats to it.
The Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC) and Zoram Nationalist Party are contesting under the banner of the United Democratic Alliance.

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