Gobind Thukral

AS everybody knows militancy in Punjab that took away several thousand innocent lives was the direct outcome of dreadful politics and a horrific rule. But no lessons seem to have been learnt from those horrific days. Otherwise how could the poor governance, rampant corruption and lack of equitable development be explained? Many of the leaders come to rule by hook or crook and stay in power as long as they can manage to. Many indulge in corruption, worst kind of nepotism and return again to rule. One set of nincompoops is replaced by another at the time of elections. This goes on as people have a little choice to make.

During this short budget session where some ruling coalition , the Akali and the BJP members, exchanged less of pleasantries and more of choicest abuses in their beloved mother tongue. The Congress, the main opposition was forced to withdraw from the session. The Punjab Assembly reached another nadir when it took barely 15 minutes to conclude legislative business and pass seven bills unanimously in the absence of the main opposition party. No legislator had questions or objections to the bills, which included five amendments and replacement of two ordinances. Even after Speaker Nirmal Singh Kahlon asked the legislators to debate the bills, no one responded. All the bills were passed unanimously without any discussion. For legislators no debating skills are required. Slinging and shouting matches is all that they need. How satisfying it must be for stalwarts like Akali leader and chief minister Parkash Singh Badal who has spent life time either in jail or in Punjab Assembly.

To measure up Punjab’s mismanagement one report from the Comptroller and Auditor General of India should suffice. It throws sufficient light to understand how Punjab’s finances are managed by its rulers. How taxes which people pay through their noses are squandered. We have a young energetic, educated finance minister who is said to be an honest folk. He has often expressed his dissenting views on subsidies that now total a whooping Rs 4,200 crore [2009-10] opposed the present style of governance and then withdrawn his profound statements. He could not present a complete budget this time on a feeble ground like the annual plan has not been approved etc.

Punjab is passing through a serious fiscal crisis with falling tax revenue and over spending and thus borrowing to pay even salaries. Its electricity board is in deep red. And observe the cavalier fashion in which precious money is spent? The government spent Rs. 922 crore on March 31 last year after keeping the money allocated in the budget all year long.

Pointing out to a rush of expenditure, particularly in the closing month, as a major breach of financial regularity in Punjab, the report of Comptroller and Auditor General of India reveals that in certain cases, almost 100 per cent of the budgeted money was spent in the month of March, 2008. Rules of the Finance Department affirm that government funds should be spent evenly throughout the year, the scrutiny of accounts of Punjab reveals the propensity to utilise the budget at the close of the financial year.

This profligacy has few parallels as in two cases, industries and capital outlay on civil aviation; the entire budget was spent in March 2008. In as many as 12 more heads of accounts, 50 to 87 per cent of the total expenditure was incurred in the last quarter of the year, of which over one third; 36.46 per cent was spent in the last month of the financial year.

Significantly the rush of expenditure was not limited to just a few departments, the report revealed that out of the total expenditure of Rs. 25,252 crore incurred by the state during 2007-08, Rs. 3,997 crore, or 15.83 per cent was incurred in March 2008.

There are several breaches of financial disciple and the laws pertaining to that. The state government cares little for the Punjab Assembly as it has not taken care of getting the necessary legislative approvals to spend huge money like Rs 4,214 crore. The CAG report states that while it is mandatory for the state government to get any excess grants and appropriations approved from the legislature as per the Constitution to ensure legislative control over funds, excess expenditure to the tune of Rs. 4,214 crore from the year 2004-07 -08 still awaits regularisation from the Assembly. Another Rs. 895 crore excess expenditure was incurred in the year 2007-08 over the grant/appropriation and requires regularisation by the legislature. Terming these as a major drain on the state’s resources, the report says there was 100 per cent rise in subsidy bill of the state in 2007-08 from Rs. 1,424 crore to Rs. 3,020 crore. The subsidies were more than projected in the budget. These are ate away 11 per cent of the total expenditure during 2007-08. There was also less realization of projected taxes.

It is well known that this kind of spending often leads to corruption. There is always a buying spree by some departments to exhaust in the last days of March when the financial year comes to a close. It violates all principles of good fiscal management and rules framed by the State and the Central government. What sense one should make when Manpreet Badal tells the assembly, “Let us not deflect even for one instance from the clear path of prudence by empty and false promptings…’’

Indicating deterioration in quality of expenditure in state finances, the CAG report states that in 2007-08, the ratio of revenue deficit to fiscal deficit in Punjab rose to 83 per cent, showing the extent to which borrowings were used to meet revenue expenditure. All other parameters such as decline in capital expenditure (reflecting expense on creation of social and physical infrastructure) to 1.5 percent of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), high percentage of committed expenditure (salaries, pension and interest payments) and high ratio of fiscal liabilities to the GSDP indicate lack of prudence in fiscal management.

How would the Badal government explain that by March last year as much as Rs 2,034 crore was outstanding as sales tax from the dealers? A part of which of course is the legacy of earlier Congress regime. The government departments pay little attention to audit observations as by June 2008 over 8.600 observations involving Rs 2,942 crore had not been replied to. The CAG test cheeks of various taxes revealed either non levy, under assessment or short assessment of taxes to the tune of Rs 363 crore in just 2.036 cases. How good is the government? It is natural that every year there is an increase in debt. At the close of 2007-08, the debt burden had shot up to Rs 52,923 crore. For the past some years, Punjab’s annual rate of growth has been less than the national average of 7.8 per cent. Let the minister do something besides reciting couplets.

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Dire need for an alternative agriculture model

Rajinder Chaudhary

REPORT of the Punjab State Farmers Commission to the Government of Punjab on Organic Farming provides an opportunity to examine the potential of various alternatives to the presently dominant chemical fertilizer and insecticide based farming. Two key points made by the Commission, or rather by all conventional agricultural scientists, including Norman Borlaug, are low productivity of the organic agriculture and non availability of enough organic material. Prevalent high premiums, some time pretty steep, seem to underscore the low productivity of organic/alternative agriculture. As against these sceptics, on the other hand are die hard supporters of alternative agriculture who question both these premise.

Where lies the truth? Fortunately, there is a lot of scientific material that can throw valuable light on the crucial question. Besides, various specific studies with narrow geographical/crop focus, two sets of recent review documents appear to be very useful. An “International Conference on Organic Agriculture and Food Security” was held in Rome in 2007. The Conference was organized by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, through its Inter-Departmental Working Group on Organic Agriculture. It was organised in partnership with various other international bodies working in this area. Some 350 participants from more than 80 countries including five inter-governmental institutions, 24 research institutions, 31 universities attended this conference. The other set of documents relate to the “Organic Agriculture and Poverty Reduction in Asia: China and India Focus” (2005), a study commissioned by International Fund for Agricultural Development. This report is based on number of specific case studies pertaining to India/Asia. All the documents with a large number of further references are available at http://www.fao.org/organicag & http://www.ifad.org/evaluation/public_html/eksyst/doc/thematic/organic/asia.pdf. (A detailed review of this and other available literature done by the author is available in ‘Alternative Economic Survey, India’, 2008)

Report of the aforementioned FAO Conference estimates that even at high levels of conversion to organic agriculture (up to 50 percent) in Europe and North America, there would be relatively little impact on the availability of food and price changes would be limited. For the case of sub-Saharan Africa, a conversion of up to 50 percent is likely to increase food availability and decrease food import dependency, with negligible changes in prices and no changes in current malnutrition rates. Another study from the University of Michigan, based on actual yield data from 293 examples of organic agriculture from the world over, tried to independently estimate how much food could be raised following a global shift to organic farming. Based on these models and many other studies, it was concluded that the “organic agriculture has the potential to secure a global food supply, just as conventional agriculture today, but with reduced environmental impacts”.

Many specific studies, from the developed as well as developing countries, varying in coverage, methodology etc is available. Amongst these is a “22-year Rodale Institute Farming Systems Trial (the longest running professional comparison of organic vs. conventional farming in the United States)” where after just ‘two years of transition and learning, net returns (without premium prices) were similar’. “The Living Soil” (1943) by Lady Evelyn Barbara Balfour, also had comparative data of organic, mixed and chemical sections of a farm in England for 32 years
Coming specifically to India/Asia, it was found that the “First-year losses in yields are often considerable. By the third year, yields have typically stabilized. Although some stabilize at a yield level lower than before, some of the more sophisticated farmers are able to actually improve yields with organic methods. … [I]t is reasonable to conclude that the promotion of organic agriculture among small farmers can contribute to poverty alleviation and is well warranted.”

This is widely accepted conclusion. Though many advocates of organic farming may claim that with due diligence it can be ensured that there is no fall in yield at all but generally it is accepted that the immediately after adoption of alternative agriculture, there is decline in the yield. That yield recovers in 2-3 years is also equally true. In fact, even data from PAU given in Annexure (Table 9) of the Punjab State Farmers Commission report itself shows that after transition, organic agriculture gives much higher yield (more than 13% in case of wheat). Above study is not an exception. Amongst the few studies done by ICAR institutions, there is a study done at the farm of Central Institute for Cotton Research, Nagpur. It too showed that the “yields of organic cotton started rising from third year.

Cotton yields under organic, conventional and the mixed systems were 898, 623 and 710 kg/ha respectively at the end of the fourth year of the cultivation”. So, after the transition phase, even in terms of yield, alternative agriculture does not lag behind. Hence, price premium is not essential to its profitability. In fact in Aurangabad district of Maharashtra even without certification and hence with only meagre premium for only part of the marketed surplus in local market and without any subsidy except training and guidance, the number of farmers adopting organic agriculture had increased overtime from 400 to 1700. This does indicate the viability of the shift.

It is not the case that everything turns out to be fine always. IFAD report notes that in about 9% cases farmers suffered a decrease in their income even after full conversion. But over all the study concludes that “there are however reasoned arguments that, at least for small farmers, it can provide more benefits — both direct and indirect — than conventional methods. Equally compelling on the macro scale is that organic agriculture can provide several public benefits that by most calculations should make it a very relevant multi-purpose tool for many Asian policymakers for whom health, food security, and improved incomes are at the top of their priority list.” So, it is not correct to treat alternative agriculture as low productive and costly agriculture. It can be high yielding and affordable too.

More over, it is not just a question of yield alone. Fast-diminishing petro-chemicals are essential raw material for chemical fertilizers. If this raw material is exhausted, you have no choice but to do without chemical fertilizers. Moreover, alternative agriculture is not just about use of fertilisers. It is against mono-cropping too. This makes it labour intensive and thus has a potential to generate more employment. It being knowledge intensive, it privileges owner-cultivator over absentee land lords and hence small scale over large scale. As it minimises the use of external inputs, it favours decentralised decision making and development, and thus can reduce regional inequity as well as check migration to urban areas. All this is in addition to health and environmental benefits. All these effects add up to imply reversal of process of development of past few centuries, a truly revolutionary prospect. So, evaluating the potential and prospects of alternative agriculture is a question that economists and planners must engage with. It is for ‘scientific researchers’ to come forward and do scientific studies on organic farms that report higher yield than conventional farms and if found suitable to develop them further. Unfortunately this is not being done. Till now organic/alternative agriculture has been essentially a civil society enterprise which has developed outside, often against, the domain of the public sector. In the present case too, while Punjab State Farmers Commission does recommend that PAU must conduct scientific studies and it is even ready to fund the same yet this has not stopped it from passing the judgment on limited potential of organic agriculture.

This presumptive bias must end. Punjab State Farmers Commission should have waited for the studies before going ahead with its recommendations. In the meantime, Governments must at least treat various alternative forms of agriculture at par with the conventional agriculture; in general provide equal subsidy with some additional support only for the transition phase, provide funds for research in this area and incorporate established alternative agricultural practices as a part of extension package of public agencies.

As regards, availability of organic material, no one is asking for overnight change. Hence, one does not understand why a scary scenario of immediate food shortage is being presented. Similarly, judging alternative agriculture on the basis of comparison of yield of pre-green revolution period with the present yield is not warranted as alternative or organic agriculture is not same as traditional agriculture. Perhaps the term ‘neo-traditional’ agriculture best captures the essence of this alternative agriculture where modern science and indigenous knowledge work together. Lastly, certified organic is only one form of alternative agriculture. There are many other alternatives that are being explored and practiced. State as well as society should neither ignore these alternative forms of agriculture nor treat these as marginal. This is not too much to ask for.

[The writer is Professor, Department of Economics, M.D. University, Rohtak, Haryana] rajinderc@gmail.com]

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Don’t abuse the displaced in Sri Lanka

Charu Lata Hogg

THE scenes witnessed in the Vanni are devastating: Dead bodies of civilians lie strewn along dusty roads. Hospitals, playgrounds and houses stand ravaged by heavy artillery and rockets fired from multi-barrel launchers. Civilians who remain in the conflict zone come under fire running for cover. Those who manage to flee the fighting lie wounded and dying without adequate medical care in hospital wards or militarized "welfare centres". Loved ones are seen through barbed wired fences but families are kept apart.

This scene of death and destruction is replaying like an unending nightmare in the lives of ordinary Tamil people as fighting between the Sri Lankan armed forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) intensifies in the northern region of the Vanni.

Our latest research shows that up to two thousand civilians have been killed by the Sri Lankan army and the Tamil Tigers since early January in the most recent round of fighting. Both sides have repeatedly violated the rules of war. We got reports of many civilian deaths, which have occurred in areas that the Sri Lankan government has declared to be "safe zones", where the Sri Lankan army has repeatedly and indiscriminately shelled. Hospitals have been frequently hit.

The rebels have refused to allow civilians to flee the fighting, and have fired on those who have sought to make their way to the government side. Many of those remaining under Tamil Tiger control, including children, have been forcibly recruited or forced to do hazardous work on the battlefield. Senior government officials have suggested that Tamils trapped in the war zone can be presumed to be LTTE-supporters and treated as combatants, effectively sanctioning violations.

We interviewed dozens of lucky people who managed to escape the LTTE, only to learn that there are few hopes for them; the Sri Lankan government has inflicted its own atrocities on the ethnic Tamil population. Civilians who make their way to the government “welfare centers” find them no better then heavily militarized detention camps with shockingly poor facilities and no freedom of movement. While the government for security reasons should be screening new arrivals, it is instead secretly subjecting LTTE suspects to arbitrary detention or possible enforced disappearances.

Since the government banned humanitarian agencies and media from the heavy fighting area in the north in September 2008, this war has had few witnesses. The government portrays it as a one-sided, victorious war. With no independent monitors or free media, it has managed to prevent independent public coverage of its military operations and the pitiful condition of civilians trapped in the war. Our two weeks difficult mission on the ground in February revealed that the state machinery is just chillingly mimicking the Tiger's methods of ruthless suppression of criticism.

Till now, the international community has failed to pressure both sides to stop this slaughter of civilians. It is time for concerned governments like Japan, India, and the US to ensure that President Mahinda Rajapakse’s government and the Tamil Tigers allow the victims of this conflict to live with justice and dignity. Both sides should agree to a humanitarian corridor and otherwise respect the laws of war.

If the Sri Lankan government is serious about resolving long-standing Tamil grievances, it should ensure human rights are protected and all those responsible for abuses, are held responsible. Till that happens, it is unlikely that any victory in the battlefield will result in a lasting peace.

[Courtesy Charu Lata Hogg, South Asia Researcher for Human Rights Watch]

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