Gobind Thukral

OUT of 714 million eligible voters, over 62 per cent cast their votes during India’s five-phase Parliamentary election, spread over a month, involving, 4.7 million polling staff and 2.1 million security personnel. India’s electoral scale is gigantic by any standard. It has used 8.2 lakh polling stations, 15 lakh electronic voting machines. This makes India the largest democracy in the world. But it has not been able to keep pace with the voter turnout in countries such as France (76.8), Germany (72), Japan (66.6), Argentina (70.9) or Italy (79.1) in their most recent elections. However, India, despite its size and scale, still beats the US and the UK, both of which clocked 58 per cent each in voter turnout in the most recent elections.

With every fifty Lok Sabha member with some criminal record is an unhealthy sign for any democracy. Also, many political parties and candidates as we saw in Punjab have used foul means to win the electoral battles. Money, muscle power, government resources, religion and caste besides intimidation and threats all were frequently used across India. But that is our political and social landscape. We are yet to get rid of caste system that has helped the growth of caste politics and then the money bags and criminals make all the difference. In the 14th Lok Sabha, as many as 93 of the Members of Parliament had criminal charges pending against them. Not so surprising is the fact that the trials in regard to these charges have not attained finality even after the passage of a number of years. The reason is not far to look for.

The Naxalite violence in the first three phases, the hate speeches and violations of the Model Code of Conduct right through the campaign period, and allegations of electoral malpractice across the country, including distribution of money and intimidation of voters, will have to be seen in the broader context of what is the largest democratic and election management exercise in the world. The Election Commission of India and all the players can justifiably take pride in the fact that the 15th general election to the Lok Sabha was, under the circumstances, mostly peaceful, and largely free and fair. Especially in comparison to past elections, the current election looked better organised and cleaner. Use of photo electoral rolls covering about 82 per cent of the electorate across the country 74,729 videographers and 40,599 digital cameras also brought down the number of incidents of electoral malpractice.

There was a surprising outcome of elections. What to say of the media, the political parties have been taken aback by the results. No Congress leader at the national level could claim that he or she expected 206 seats out of 543. UPA just a day before was searching with new allies to form the government. Same was the case of NDA. The Left parties with their worst performance since the first election in 1951 when they formed the main opposition had never so bad with just 24 seats. They were sure to lose, but suffer this humiliation. Perhaps the business of politics in the bourgeoisie setting is beyond them. In the national capital horse trading that is buying and selling of vulnerable Lok Sabha members had already begun. Only results were awaited and these made all the difference. Indians voted for a stable coalition of political parties. Now UPA, coalition of ten parties have 262 MPs. It needs just ten more to form the government and parties which were hoping to the lead the country are queuing up to help the formation lf the government. NDA, a grouping of seven parties have a combined strength of 159. The Third Front has 80 members.

What would these results mean? We can expect more stable central government under Congress at the national level. This is much needed to initiate policies to meet the challenge of global economic meltdown, create employment, fight poverty and disease besides create education, road and electricity infra structure. In one word as the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh said inclusive growth: for those who are at the bottom. Would the UPA remember that this victory largely by default has been made possible by the very poor? Crores of people who voted are those who are crying for good governance, drinking wearer, houses and jobs.

This present trend however does not mean a trend in favour of national parties. The combined seat share of the Congress and the BJP has increased from 283 last time to 321, roughly the same the two parties had in 1998. But there is no sharp increase in their vote share. In 2004, the Congress and the BJP together polled 48.7 per cent of the total vote. The combined share of the big two parties are about the same: 48.9 per cent. Congress 29.67 per cent the BJP has 19.29 per cent. It is incorrect to suggest that the result signals a return to a time when national parties dominated. The collation is far from over.

Regional parties are neither down nor out. Look at the performance of the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu and the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra to understand that regional parties are here to stay. In fact, the leaders who lent a “regional touch” to their national parties, like Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, Narendra Modi, Sheila Dikshit and Bhupinder Hooda, have done better than others. If the Akalis had provided good governance they would not have been so miserable, just four seats of 13 and if you include one seat of BJP then five. There is nothing here to gloat for Mr. Sukhbir Singh Badal, president of the Akali Dal and deputy chief minister. All that has happened is that some State parties such as the RJD, which took voters for granted and thought caste issues could substitute for governance — have been put in their place. Those such as the JD (U), which put a premium on governance, have been rewarded. Electoral fortunes of State-based parties may go up and down, but politics based on regions has far from vanished. A healthy outcome of this verdict is that it has reduced the possibility of bargaining for money or political office.

In the last five years, the Congress failed to address the politics at the grass roots and take care of those who are at the bottom of the pyramid. Yet, it has secured their votes. The Congress now has to create policies that respond to the needs of the poor and build a robust political landscape. It has to accept rte political reality and build a grand coalition and accept that the need for such coalitions is inbuilt in our political life. The real challenge for the UPA and particularly the Congress is to inherit this legacy that has fallen into its lap.

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The victory of Congress, a big setback for the Third Front

Sawraj Singh

THE recent election results in India showed that the emerging trend of an alternative to the two party systems got a major jolt. The Congress party regained the ground lost over the last two decades. Results were equally shocking for the BJP, the Hindu Nationalists party. The Congress party was also able to attract the minorities who were increasingly disillusioned with it. Not only the Muslims, the Sikh and the Dalits but even the Maoists helped the Congress score an impressive victory which proved all the predictions of a hung parliament wrong.

The Muslims deserted the Samajwadi party of Mulyam Singh Yadav to come back to the Congress’s fold. After the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muslims were not only angry with the BJP which led the movement to demolish the Masjid but were also angry with the Congress for not preventing this to happen. They then started supporting the Samajwadi party. However, they were frustrated with the party also and came back to their traditional stand of supporting the Congress.

It seems that Mayawati was going to challenge the two party systems with the emergence of Dalits as an independent force. However, Dalits also decided to return to the traditional fold of Congress party, thereby weakening the movement toward becoming a nucleus for the Third Front. Mayawati has to wait a little longer to emerge as the national leader. Advani, the leader of the BJP lost all chances of become India’s Prime Minister. He is now former prime ministerial candidate. The Sikhs even though a small minority, can make a big difference in the outcome of the North Indian states. Besides Punjab, their traditional stronghold, they can also make a difference in Haryana, Delhi, and some parts of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress promoted Dr Manmohan Singh as the next Prime minister in a big way. Not only it attracted many Sikh voters but also many other minorities were also attracted towards the congress because Dr. Manmohan Singh was also perceived by many people as a person capable of leading India out of the present recession. He also showed restraint in dealing with Pakistan after the Mumbai terror attacks. Now it has become clear that he did the right thing and India is seeing a stable Pakistan as more of an asset rather than a liability.

The Maoists also helped the congress to defeat the CPIM in West Bengal. They attacked the CPIM particularly on the issue of Tata’s plant in Singur . They joined Mamta Banerjee and weakened the CPIM in West Bengal, thereby paving the way for the victory of the Trinamool Congress and a major setback for the Leftist parties.

The leftist parties have been always concerned about preventing the BJP from coming into power rather than focusing on developing the “Third Front” as alternative to the two party systems. The third front is the most compatible with the Indian situation.

[The wrier is Chairman Washington State Network for Human Rights]

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Sri Lanka: What’s next for the Tamil community?

NEARLY three decades of war ended in Sri Lanka last week and a victorious President Mahinda Rajapaksa has extended a fresh hand of friendship to the minority Tamils, but most members of this community feel it will take a long time for the wounds to heal after years of mistrust and alienation.

Mano Ganeshan, Tamil parliamentarian and leader of the Western People’s Front (WPF), said that Rajapaksa clearly said in parliament that the war and subsequent victory was against Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrillas and not the Tamil people. "However these pronouncements and declarations should also be reflected on the ground," he said, adding that in a few areas, Tamils were subjected to intimidation and harassment during widespread victory celebrations.

Thousands of people across Sri Lanka - including in the Tamil-dominated eastern region - have been singing and dancing in the streets after the government declared at the weekend that the Tigers had been defeated and that elusive rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran had been killed. The scenes were reminiscent of the fervour that erupted across the country when cricket-crazy Sri Lanka won the World Cup in 1996 - even the rebels celebrated at that time.

"Our aim was to liberate our Tamil people from the clutches of the LTTE. Protecting the Tamil-speaking people of this country is my responsibility - that is my duty," Rajapaksa said, speaking in the Tamil language in the opening part of his ‘victory’ speech in Parliament Tuesday. "All the people of this country should live in safety without fear and suspicion. All should live with equal rights." Wednesday was declared a national holiday to mark the end of the war.

But, Tamils say insecurity persists and the government needs to quickly win the confidence of the people, otherwise the same old issues of discrimination and uncertainty would remain. "We are not the Tigers. We don’t even support them. But more than fighting the Tigers, the government has been suppressing ordinary Tamils. We still live in fear," a veteran academic, who declined to be named, said by telephone from the northern, Tamil-dominated town of Jaffna, once the seat of LTTE militancy.

He said most shops in Jaffna were ‘asked’ to put up the national flag by local authorities. "Shopkeepers did - out of fear and not because of anything else."

Ganeshan said Tamils need concrete assurances of safety, and clear instructions must be given to the armed forces and the police to maintain law and order. He sees tackling the root cause of the problem as a priority, saying, "Tamil militancy began because of these issues and though the LTTE has been defeated, these issues remain unresolved."

Government troops - after a sustained, nearly 2-year campaign - crushed the rebels in the north and east, ending the battle at the weekend by freeing several civilians held against their will by the rebels, and by killing Prabhakaran and several of his lieutenants including his son, Charles Anthony who headed the group’s air force.

Thousands of soldiers, rebels and civilians have died in the rebel campaign for a separate homeland for minority Tamils, who form over 15 percent of Sri Lanka’s population of 20 million. The Tamils say they have been discriminated against for over half a century in education, jobs and other services by governments controlled by the majority Sinhalese community.

Several rounds of peace talks, at different times since 1983, between the government and militants, were held but ended with disagreement mostly by the rebels.

Nearly a million Tamils have gone abroad since 1983 to escape the violence and many supported the Tigers through financial and other means. In the past few weeks as the war neared its end, Tiger supporters abroad launched huge demonstrations outside the British Parliament and White House in the U.S.

Demonstrations and protests were also held in cities around the world by Sri Lankan expats - both Tamil and Singhalese together - against alleged human rights violations by both sides in the final days of the war. A few Sri Lankan overseas missions were also vandalised.

Colombo has seen a flurry of world leaders in recent weeks, all trying to persuade Rajapaksa to stop the war as innocent civilians were being harmed. But Colombo wasn’t swayed and all these calls were rejected.

Some 250,000 civilians - who fled the latest fighting - are housed in camps in the northern town of Vavuniya and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is flying to Sri Lanka Friday to visit these camps and assess the situation.

Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, executive director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), says the priority is to resolve the problems of people (Internally Displaced Persons-IDPs) living in camps. "There should be a quick screening, registration and separation," he said.

While the screening is to separate civilians from rebel infiltrators, the government has said at least 80 percent of the IDPs will be returned to their homes by the end of 2009 after reconstruction and rehabilitation gets underway. A government task force was recently appointed to oversee the rebuilding of the north.

"The other aspect is moving towards a speedy political settlement. This is imperative," Saravanamuttu, also a political columnist, said, adding however that, "the Tamils will want their insecurity taken care of first."

That’s what worries residents like the Jaffna academic. "We need to be trusted to make our own choices. We shouldn’t be forced. For example, some of my business friends in Colombo have been asked by government agencies to contribute financially to help the IDPs and are paying, with great difficulty, the money," he said. "They do care but also fear that if they don’t donate, they would be marginalised."

A grouping of parties called the All Party Representatives Committee (APRC) has been meeting for the past few years - since Rajapaksa won presidential elections in November 2005 - to thrash out a political settlement to the ethnic question.

However the main opposition United National Party (UNP) and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) - the largest Tamil group in Parliament which has been supporting the rebels - have boycotted the meetings and most people believe it is unlikely to come up with a viable solution.

Analysts also believe the government will hold local council elections in the north and back anti-LTTE political parties to take control to ward off any attempt by the Tigers or their proxies to secure a foothold. There is also speculation that Rajapaksa may either call early parliamentary or presidential polls this year. [Courtesy IPS]

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LTTE defeated, what now?

AFTER 26 years, Sri Lanka claims it has defeated the feared Tamil Tigers, but the tide of refugees driven into internment leaves legacy of hate. It had been talked about for months, its slow inevitability played out against the most savage of backdrops. Last night, on the blood-soaked sand on the north-eastern coast of Sri Lanka, it appeared to have finally happened.

Twenty-six years after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam – once the most feared terrorists in the world – launched a brutal war for a separate Tamil homeland, they admitted defeat. Having reportedly launched waves of suicide attacks in an effort to repel a final assault by government troops, the once mighty rebels laid down their arms. The government was examining one of several bodies recovered from the battlefield, tentatively said to be that of the rebels' leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, who apparently committed suicide with several of his senior commanders as they were surrounded by government troops.

"This battle has reached its bitter end," a senior rebel spokesman, Selvarajah Pathmanathan, said on the pro-Tiger website TamilNet. "It is our people who are dying now from bombs, shells, illness and hunger. We cannot permit any more harm to befall them. We remain with one last choice – to remove the last weak excuse of the enemy for killing our people. We have decided to silence our guns." Denying Prabhakaran's demise later, Pathmanathan insisted that the group's leader was behind the decision to end the war.

Their unilateral ceasefire was rejected by the government, whose forces continued their assault. By yesterday evening, the fighting was said to have slowed, though with journalists and almost all aid workers prevented from reaching the war zone, it was impossible to confirm details. The government said that the last Tigers were boxed into an area measuring just 400m by 600m.

The government claimed that the last civilians being held in the war zone – the UN had estimated on Saturday there were anywhere up to 80,000 – had escaped by lunchtime. What seems certain is that a considerable number have fled the war zone.

"There is still some mopping up – as they call it – going on," said Gordon Weiss, a UN spokesman in Colombo, the capital. "What we do know is that a substantial number of people have managed to leave. The government is saying 72,000. We don't know if they've got everybody out and we probably won't know that for a few days."

What also remains unclear is the civilian toll of the operation. The UN has estimated that 7,000 have been killed and a further 16,700 wounded since the beginning of the year. If and when independent observers are allowed into the war zone, such figures could rise or fall.

Observers said that even with the military victory apparently secured, a major challenge for the government now would be dealing with the 250,000 to 300,000 refugees who have been driven from their homes. The government is putting the civilians into internment camps surrounded by razor wire from which they cannot leave, while it carries out security checks to identify possible Tiger fighters hiding among them and sweeps for mines in areas of the north previously held by the rebels. Most aid groups believe the refugees will be in the camps for at least a year.

"If you look at the numbers of dead and then the numbers of people forced from their homes, then it is a terrible price to pay," said Sarah Crowe, a regional spokeswoman for Unicef. "So much effort was invested in winning the war, but little effort has been put into winning the peace."

The final rout of the Tigers after a civil war that dates in its current incarnation to 1983 and which has probably claimed the lives of 100,000 people was cheered yesterday by many among Sri Lanka's Sinhala Buddhist majority, who set off fireworks and celebrated in the streets of Colombo. The government asked people to fly the national flag.

Three years ago, the once potent rebel forces controlled 5,792 square miles of Sri Lanka in the north and east. Even less than 18 months ago, when a sputtering ceasefire between the government and the rebels was finally broken, the Tigers still held a large strip of territory in the north.

But having vowed to destroy the rebels within a year, President Mahinda Rajapaksa dedicated huge resources to tackling them. By November, the military was reported to be in control of the entire western coast, having captured the strategic area of Pooneryn. Soon afterwards, in January, the government captured the rebels' de facto capital, Kilinochchi, in the north.

One of the biggest challenges for Mr Rajapaksa now will be to find a political settlement that draws in the country's Tamil minority. For years, the Tamils have complained of marginalisation at the hands of successive governments led by the Sinhalese majority, which came to power at independence in 1948, and took the favoured positions the Tamils had enjoyed under British colonial rule.
Mr Rajapaksa said he was willing to work for such a settlement but only once the military operation to crush the rebels was completed. That moment appears to have arrived.

Another issue will be how many Tigers are still be at large and whether – as some analysts have suggested – they will be able to carry out guerrilla strikes. The Tigers had said that in the case of a conventional defeat, those cadres would target Sri Lanka's economically valuable assets, an indirect threat to a tourism sector the government hopes can be boosted after the war.

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