Jagtar Singh

PUNJAB Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal has been at his valiant best defending rather himself all these months for the procrastination of the government, led by his uncle and mentor Parkash Singh Badal, on the fiscal front to bail out Punjab’s chronically sick economy. He had the last chance in this third budget he presented in the state Assembly last week. Despite all his well projected intentions, he failed to show guts, taking refuse in the argument that after all governance is collective responsibility and moreover, there is the stock alibi of the alliance partner opposing any move at resource mobilization targeted mainly at the urban population.

The fiscal approach raises question mark on the style of governance of the Badal government of which the Finance Minister is just one component. But then it is not just the fiscal approach. The Badal government, as usual, has been characterized by non-governance and this is admitted in private by several leaders in the ruling dispensation.

Interestingly, in the backdrop of deepening financial crisis and lack of will to initiate remedial measures, the law makers in the state exhibited rare unity as they voted for themselves higher salary and allowances.

As Manpreet is himself fully aware, the basic issue in Punjab is not just the resource mobilisation but formulating long term policies to revive the economy from the crisis it landed in during the long period of militancy when bureaucracy, by and large, turned utterly corrupt, inefficient and indifferent. The Beant Singh government in 1992 represented first effective political government but that dispensation lacked legitimate mandate and the government was not representative in the backdrop of the boycott of elections by the mainstream Akali Dal. Despite that, some moves were initiated to rectify the distortions but the matter ended there.

The Akali Dal government in 1997 led by Badal was the representative democratic set up but it failed to deliver on this crucial front. The Akali Dal had mobilized the rural sections on the slogan of free power to the farm sector. Farm sector all over the world is highly subsidized but then there have to be adequate resource mobilization for that purpose. Badal would not allow free hand to then Finance Minister Capt. Kanwaljit Singh to widen the tax base. As a result, the state went down further deep into morass. The successor Congress government led by Capt. Amarinder Singh initially tried to take some bold steps but political compulsions put those steps in reverse gear and that regime ended up with still higher debt burden.

The second and third budgets of the government are considered to be crucial for giving new directions to the economy. These could be bold initiatives, in case there is political will, to revive the state’s economy.  Manpreet himself has been drumming all this time that some hard decisions were called for to restore the fiscal health of the state and take it forward on the path of development. However, the budget presented by this visionary on July 7 lacks any vision for the future of the state. He has to present only one more regular budget as the fifth budget would be vote-on-account in view of the Assembly elections in February 2011.

Of course, the budget speech has his personal signature and its reading makes it amply clear that the first few pages have been penned down by the London educated finance minister himself rather than depending upon the bureaucracy which has been using the same style and jargon for the last some years. It is clear from his appeal to the House seeking cooperation, “Our resources are exiguous, but we have manfully striven to meet our obligations and the course of our financial administration clearly demonstrates the most zealous care for the best interest of Punjab. We are living in times when events beyond our power, beyond our ken and calculations, must so largely dictate our code of conduct. But, I feel assured, our policy would be justified on the strictest scrutiny, for it is grounded in the furtherance and promotion of men’s true striving”.

When in opposition for three terms, Manpreet, after having studied the situation, would be concerned about the situation and it was this concern which moved him to take initiative for the setting up of all party young legislators’ front to evolve common strategy to cure the sick economy and make the government govern.  The move had to be left half way due to some interventions. However, that move projected Manpreet as future hope of Punjab, a leader who had showed concern rising above party interests.  Now when he himself is in command, his concerns seem to be missing in all the three budgets presented by him.

The induction of Badal’s son Sukhbir Singh as the Deputy Chief Minister was considered to be a signal that things would start moving in right direction as his image was that of a leader who means business. However, he had to resign on the eve of the budget session after having failed to get elected to the Assembly within the stipulated period of six months. A proven political strategist, he is also a successful businessman. The basic issue in Punjab is efficient and effective governance and not just selling dreams. No more procrastination. The selection of  Subodh Aggarwal as the Chief Secretary and P S Gill as the state police chief emanated positive signals about governance as both of them are learnt to be the personal choice of Sukhbir who ignored several aspirants who could always be seen around him. The Akali Dal chief is seeking election from Jalalabad and is likely to be re-inducted either on or after August 11. This government needs a pusher.

The problem with Punjab is that the state is characterized by wheat-paddy rotation in political sector also. This is one of the major factors that leads to inertia and the attitude that let the people go to hell,  enjoy life for five years. It is the ruling party which acts its own opposition in a way. But then the Badal government had never exhibited  any spark even in the earlier three terms.  All efforts to break this cycle in the farm sector have failed. In the political sector, there is not even an effort, though when this government swept into power, the slogan used to be to govern the state for the next 25 years. Not any more.

[The writer a senior journalist is former special correspondent of Indian Express jagtarsingh201@hotmail.com]

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Troops leave cities, as questions remain

Jared Levy

U.S. combat troops pulled out of most Iraqi cities Monday, a day before the Jun. 30 deadline for their withdrawal in accordance with the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) ratified by the Iraqi parliament in November 2008.

Iraqi security forces will step in to fill the vacuum left by the diminished U.S. military presence.

Publicly, U.S. military officials are supportive of the transition to greater authority for the Iraqi security apparatuses. In remarks to the cable news channel CNN on Sunday, the top U.S. general in Iraq, Ray Odierno, voiced his support for the change.

"From a military and security standpoint, it’s time for us to move out of the cities," said Odierno. "As for the Iraqis, I do believe they’re ready... We see constant improvement in the security forces... I believe this is the time for them to take ultimate responsibility."

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen joined Odierno in lauding the transition. "All the engagement I’ve had with General Odierno and [Central Command chief] General [David] Petraeus is that the Iraqi security forces are ready for this. We’ve been out of many of the cities, I think, for over a year."

However, many questions remain as to whether Iraqi security forces are up to the task of keeping the peace in Iraq. Last week, in the lead-up to the U.S. withdrawal, several attacks resulted in the combined deaths of over 200 civilians.

The violence primarily targeted Shi’a neighbourhoods. It is widely assumed that Sunni extremists are behind the attacks with their motive to restart the sectarian civil war that broke out in Iraq after the bombing of the Shiite Samarra mosque in 2006.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has celebrated the U.S. withdrawal, calling it a "great victory" over occupation. In remarks at a press conference last Saturday, Maliki said, "We are on the threshold of a new phase that will bolster Iraq’s sovereignty... It is a message to the world that we are now able to safeguard our security and administer our internal affairs."

Not all Iraqis are so optimistic. In remarks to The New York Times, former Iraqi National Security Advisor and current Shi’a legislator Qassim Daoud said, "I just hope the prime minister realises we don’t have a competent security force yet."

Daoud says the SOFA, which calls for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq by 2011, "needs to be extended until 2020, 2025."

Indeed, nobody expects U.S. soldiers to disappear from sight as a result of the Jun. 30 withdrawal. "On Jul. 1, we’re not going to see this big puff of smoke, everyone leaving the cities," U.S. military spokesman Brigadier General Stephen Lanza recently said.

In a recent lecture at the Middle East Institute (MEI), Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) Dr. John Nagl, head of the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS), said that a large number of U.S. combat troops will become "trainers" following the withdrawal, thus allowing them to remain in cities. Nagl acknowledged that the difference between the two may not be distinguishable to the untrained eye.

Nagl went on to say that he has deep concerns about the security situation in Iraq going forward, due in part to "politically motivated decisions" by Maliki. "I believe the Iraqi government will come to its senses in 2010 or 2011 in the interest of their people," said Nagl, implying that they will amend the SOFA to allow for a continued U.S. military presence.

There is a consensus that there will likely be an uptick in violence as insurgents try to take advantage of the reduced U.S. security presence. In a recent interview with al-Arabiya, a spokesman for the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior acknowledged, "We expect an increase in attacks."

Nagl also expects attacks to continue, but he doubts that suicide attacks will achieve the perpetrators’ aims of re-igniting sectarian strife. "The human cost is horrible, but these attacks are not strategically destabilising," he said.

Whether Nagl is correct on this last point remains to be seen. A large trust deficit remains between much of Iraq’s Sunni population and the Iraqi security forces, which Sunnis widely view as a political tool of the Shiite-dominated government. For the bombing attacks not to be strategically destabilising, this trust deficit must be addressed.

The Awakening Movement, also known as the Sons of Iraq – groups of former Sunni insurgents who joined forces with the U.S. to combat al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and other groups starting in 2007 – have not been given the state security jobs they believed were promised to them when they relinquished anti-government fighting in favour of siding with the U.S.

Coupled with continued reports of abuses of Sunni communities by security services, the failure to incorporate Sahwa fighters leaves some Iraqis fearful at the prospect of a diminished U.S. presence.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, a Sunni resident of Baghdad voiced his concern about the departure of U.S. combat troops: "I don’t think our soldiers can control the situation. It is still better to have the Americans here. They are our quality insurance for our own forces."

Indeed, the failure to broadly incorporate the Sunni militiamen, who assisted the U.S. army in the fight against AQI, into the Iraqi security services may prove costly in the coming weeks and months.

As many Sahwa leaders keep a low profile due to continued disagreement with the Maliki government, they will have less of an ability – and possibly desire – to assist in halting the wave of attacks that is likely to coincide with the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Sunni-Shi’a sectarian strife is not the only concern as U.S. forces leave the cities of Iraq. Tensions continue to brew between Arabs and Kurds in areas of northern Iraq that are heavily populated by Kurds, but fall outside the borders of the area controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government. [Courtesy IPS]

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Al Qaeda excluded from the suspects list

Gareth Porter

ON Jun. 25, 1996, a massive truck bomb exploded at a building in the Khobar Towers complex in Khobar, Saudi Arabia, which housed U.S. Air Force personnel, killing 19 U.S. airmen and wounding 372.

Immediately after the blast, more than 125 agents from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) were ordered to the site to sift for clues and begin the investigation of who was responsible. But when two U.S. embassy officers arrived at the scene of the devastation early the next morning, they found a bulldozer beginning to dig up the entire crime scene.

The Saudi bulldozing stopped only after Scott Erskine, the supervisory FBI special agent for international terrorism investigations, threatened that Secretary of State Warren Christopher, who happened to be in Saudi Arabia when the bomb exploded, would intervene personally on the matter.

U.S. intelligence then intercepted communications from the highest levels of the Saudi government, including interior minister Prince Nayef, to the governor and other officials of Eastern Province instructing them to go through the motions of cooperating with U.S. officials on their investigation but to obstruct it at every turn.

That was the beginning of what interviews with more than a dozen sources familiar with the investigation and other information now available reveal was a systematic effort by the Saudis to obstruct any U.S. investigation of the bombing and to deceive the United States about who was responsible for the bombing.

The Saudi regime steered the FBI investigation toward Iran and its Saudi Shi’a allies with the apparent intention of keeping U.S. officials away from a trail of evidence that would have led to Osama bin Laden and a complex set of ties between the regime and the Saudi terrorist organiser.

The key to the success of the Saudi deception was FBI director Louis Freeh, who took personal charge of the FBI investigation, letting it be known within the Bureau that he was the "case officer" for the probe, according to former FBI officials.

Freeh allowed Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar bin Sultan to convince him that Iran was involved in the bombing, and that President Bill Clinton, for whom he had formed a visceral dislike, "had no interest in confronting the fact that Iran had blown up the towers," as Freeh wrote in his memoirs.

The Khobar Towers investigation soon became Freeh’s vendetta against Clinton. "Freeh was pursuing this for his own personal agenda," says former FBI agent Jack Cloonan.

A former high-ranking FBI official recalls that Freeh "was always meeting with Bandar". And many of the meetings were not in Freeh’s office but at Bandar’s 38-room home in McLean, Virginia.

Meanwhile, the Saudis were refusing the most basic FBI requests for cooperation. When Ray Mislock, who headed the National Security Division of the FBI’s Washington Field Office, requested permission to go door to door to interview witnesses in the neighbourhood, the Saudis refused.

"It’s our responsibility," Mislock recalls being told. "We’ll do the interviews."

But the Saudis never conducted such interviews. The same thing happened when Mislock requested access to phone records for the immediate area surrounding Khobar Towers.

Soon after the bombing, officials of the Saudi secret police, the Mabahith, began telling their FBI and CIA contacts that they had begun arresting members of a little known Shi’a group called "Saudi Hezbollah", which Saudi and U.S. intelligence had long believed was close to Iran. They claimed that they had extensive intelligence information linking the group to the Khobar Towers bombing.

But a now declassified July 1996 report by CIA analysts on the bombing reveals that the Mabahith claims were considered suspect. The report said the Mabahith "have not shown U.S. officials their evidence... nor provided many details on their investigation."

Nevertheless, Freeh quickly made Iranian and Saudi Shi’a responsibility for the bombing the official premise of the investigation, excluding from the inquiry the hypothesis that Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda organisation had carried out the Khobar Towers bombing.

"There was never, ever a doubt in my mind about who did this," says a former FBI official involved in the investigation who refused to be identified.

FBI and CIA experts on Osama bin Laden tried unsuccessfully to play a role in the Khobar Towers investigation. Jack Cloonan, a member of the FBI’s I-49 unit, which was building a legal case against bin Laden over previous terrorist actions, recalls asking the Washington Field Office (WFO), which had direct responsibility for the investigation, to allow such I-49 participation, only to be rebuffed.

"The WFO was hypersensitive and told us to f*ck off," says Cloonan.

The CIA’s bin Laden unit, which had only been established in early 1996, was also excluded by CIA leadership from that Agency’s work on the bombing.

Two or three days after the Khobar bombing, recalls Dan Coleman, an FBI agent assigned to the unit, the agency "locked down" its own investigation, creating an encrypted "passline" that limited access to information related to Khobar investigation to the handful of people at the CIA who were given that code.

The head of the bin Laden unit at the CIA’s Counter-Terrorism Centre, Michael Scheuer, was not included among that small group.

Nevertheless, Scheuer instructed his staff to put together all the information the station had collected from all sources - human assets, electronic intercepts and open sources – indicating that there would be an al Qaeda operation in Saudi Arabia after the bombing in Riyadh the previous November.

The result was a four-page memo which ticked off the evidence that bin Laden’s al Qaeda organisation had been planning a military operation involving explosives in Saudi in 1996.

"One of the places mentioned in the memo was Khobar," says Scheuer. "They were moving explosives from Port Said through Suez Canal to the Red Sea and to Yemen, then infiltrating them across the border with Saudi Arabia."

A few days after receiving the bin Laden unit’s four-page memo, the head of the CIA’s Counter-Terrorism Centre, Winston Wiley, one of the few CIA officials who was privy to information on the investigation, came to Scheuer’s office and closed the door. Wiley opened up a folder which had only one document in it - a translated intercept of an internal Iranian communication in which there was a reference to Khobar Towers. "Are you satisfied?" Wiley asked.

Scheuer replied that it was only one piece of information in a much bigger universe of information that pointed in another direction. "If that’s all there is," he told Wiley, "I would say it was very interesting and ought to be followed up, but it isn’t definitive."

But the signal from the CIA leadership was clear: Iran had already been identified as responsible for the Khobar bombing plot, and there was no interest in pursuing the bin Laden angle.

In September 1996, bin Laden’s former business agent Jamal Al-Fadl, who had left al Qaeda over personal grievances, walked into the U.S. embassy in Eritrea and immediately began providing the best intelligence the United States had ever gotten on bin Laden and al Qaeda.

But the CIA and FBI made no effort take advantage of his knowledge to get information on possible al Qaeda involvement in the Khobar Towers bombing, according to Dan Coleman, one of al-Fadl’s FBI handlers.

"We were never given any questions to ask him about Khobar Towers," says Coleman. [Courtesy IPS]

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Pitching in for bright expectations

Gobind Thukral

WAY back in 1973, when Haryana had begun taking long strides in development, this scribe had a chance to observe the coming up of a primary health centre at village Gopi in the desert area of Bhiwani district. Most villagers, close to primitive living, had not benefitted from the modern system of medicines or enjoyed a film except those from the army. They were sceptical about this initiative. They were scared of doctor’s syringe and needle and the family planning raga.  Yet welcomed it and demanded electricity, roads and water supply too. Their insatiable desire for development was showing clear signs and since then successive governments with varying degree of success have been engaged in that task. Haryana was the first state to electrify all its villages in 1970 when the late Bansi Lal was the chief minister. He loved to tell this big story in his characteristic style, recounting political and administrative hiccups.

 Haryanvis can certainly take pride that the young state has comparatively moved fast, laying good infra structure to usher in economic and social development. Anyone who has lived or travelled in Haryana around late sixties or early seventies knows rather well the travails of peasants, workers and traders. Farming was drudgery and a punishment. Workers barely survived on measly meals. Travelling involved huge effort. Educational institutions, roads, railways electrify; hospitals and transport, the symbols of civilisation of modern day were scarce.

In 1967, two decades after independence as government documents reveal only 1,322 towns and villages could boast of electricity. There were only 3, 18,933 electricity consumers and the yearly consumption was 4,343 lakh KW.

And, in 2009, all 106 towns and cities and 6,764 villages are electrified.  The consumption has jumped to an incredible 724 lakhs units per day. The number of consumers is a stunning 41 lakh. Haryana generates 4,794 MW yearly to meet the ever rising demand that is now pegged at 5,644 MW. Political careers are made or marred on electricity. This is a plain story of development without any embellishment.

Take irrigation, the lifeline of all farming activities.  During 1966-67 the net irrigated area was a mere 37.8 per cent of the total sown area.  In 2006-07 it has increased to 84 per cent. It is rising by each day.  A government document revealed that in 1967 there were 11,200 electricity fed tubewells. Large swath of land which now blooms with wheat, mustard cotton, sugarcane or millet was all sand dunes. In large parts particularly southern Haryana, one could travel miles and miles before a green patch of crops could be sighted.  Barren lands greeted the inhabitants and the travellers alike. Of course, the state had nearly 62,000 wells where bullocks drew the water. The state could boast of 991 distributaries, channels and canals. That helped its sturdy farmers grow good crops. The number of tubewells has now jumped to a phenomenal 6.62 lakhs. A net work of canals and lift irrigation systems take the water to most inaccessible areas. The newly created Hansi Butana canal from the Bhakra mainline would finally help quench the thirst of dry land. The state hopes to get the Supreme Court nod soon. 

Agriculture contributes 26.4 per cent to the State’s Gross Domestic Product.  Haryana is the second largest contributor of wheat and third largest supplier of rice to the central pool. Haryana has achieved an all time high foodgrains production of 108.56 lakh metric tonnes during 2008-09 whereas at the time of its inception the foodgrains production was just 25.92 lakh tonnes.

Same is the story of educational infra structure; schools, colleges, professional institutions and universities. 1966-67 the number of schools was 5,781 and the number of teachers 32,479 who taught 11.61 lakh students.

During 2007-8, the number of schools of all types and at levels was 15,949. Over 46.30 lakh students studied there under the guidance of nearly 72,000 teachers. Last year the government spent Rs 3,200 crore on education.  The projected literacy rate for 2009 is 76 per cent.

 It had just one university at Kurukshetra then and now it has six and more are coming up. There has been a phenomenal growth of professional colleges; engineering, medical and management.

Total fleet during 1966-67 was 496 buses that covered 372 lakh kms.  Now there is an efficient fleet of 3,206 buses, operate over 10.81 lakh kms, carrying 10.87 lakh passengers with the help of 18,000 staff. Haryanvis are bitten by the travelling bug. The government is adding one thousand more buses by the end of 11th five year plan.

During the last four years or so, there has been an additional emphasis on infra structure.  The present chief minister, Mr. Bhupinder Singh Hooda says, “A booming economy and good fiscal management has brought more money into the kitty of the government.  We are happy spending on electricity generation and distribution, roads, bridges, industrial estates, special economic zones, schools, colleges, universities and social sector.  It runs into several thousand crores of rupees. The idea is to create a modern unbeatable Haryana.”

In May 2008, the World Bank appreciated Haryana’s efforts and expeditiously approved a loan of Rs 12,350 crore for infra structure development. The Haryana Government has sought a financial assistance of Rs 5,588 crore for implementation of projects of roads, Rs.3,804 crore for power projects and Rs 2,957 crore for water supply and sanitation project.

 But Haryana is being deprived of funds since it has developed fast. It requires more funds, particularly when meltdown has adversely impacted exports.  The tax revenue is down by Rs 1,200 core this year. “One size fits all" approach of the Planning Commission is completely flawed. Poverty can never be assessed in absolute terms, should always be calculated in real terms. Haryana should not be penalized for its last mile connectivity and rural electrification. There is need to  expedite the construction of upstream dams on river Yamuna, namely, the Renuka, Lakshar Vyasi and Kisau Dams, to ensure that we tap into the surface water that flows to the Bay of Bengal each year towards irrigation in states like Haryana. The inter-state issues pertaining to water channels should be resolved expediently.

Yet this growth story has a shady side. It is not inclusive by any stretch of imagination.   With widening disparities in income, the chasm between the rich and the poor has been widening, leading to social tensions. Transparency is still missing as is good monitoring of the government plans in operation. The chief minister and his colleagues have to honour their commitment; “We need to continue our march towards socialistic agenda, which means increasing the expenditure in the social sectors - education, health and rural infrastructure to improve the lot of less privileged and vulnerable sections.”

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