Gobind Thukral

NOT a day passes when the media do not report tragic deaths in road accidents. Last year, in Chandigarh alone 146 people lost their lives while 440 were injured. Till May 16 year, a total of 54 persons were killed in road accidents in the city while another 105 persons were grievously hurt. How devastating is for the surviving family and friends.

Punjab tops in number of road accidents and causalities.  As many as 1,765 persons were killed in road accidents till June this year. Loaded buses either roll down the roads or fall into canals and meet worst accidents on unmanned railway crossings. These are becoming routine. How cheap is the human life. The authorities have almost given up the effort, leaving it to fate.

Casualties in road accidents in Uttrakhand up to July 21 this year have touched 150. In single day, in Dehradun district 10 persons were killed. This is a grim reminder of the abysmal condition of vehicles and roads.

All over the country situation is depressing. More traffic, bad roads, poor driving sense ill maintained vehicles, lax traffic rules, driving when drunk and the people boasting of traffic violations are some major reasons. Road rage often leading to deaths speaks ill about our culture as tolerant citizens. Indians can be rated as the most irresponsible people as far as road sense is concerned.

The National Crime Records Bureau's latest figures show that close to 1.15 lakh people were killed in 4.18 lakh road accidents in India in 2007, the latest year for which data has been released. This was the second highest number of road casualties in the world, second only to China. Estimates for 2008 suggest close to 1.3 lakh deaths. India now tops this unfortunate global list in road accidents, which account for about 10% of the world's total. And, we are yet to have the number of cars like America and other European countries.  

As usual, as one study revealed that a substantial number of road accident victims are pedestrians, cyclists and two-wheeler riders. Two out of three road fatalities in the urban areas are of pedestrians.

It is indeed  an intolerable situation. The senseless loss of innocent human life is easily avoidable. There is callousness in the way vehicles are driven on the roads. Witness Chandigarh and see how youngsters speed up on motor cycles and in cars.  Notably, these fatalities are a result of a deep flaw in the way out cities and roads are planned, built and operated, besides how we drive. Urban areas in India have grown haphazardly, with poor municipal or government oversight. There is an unmanageable pressure on civic services and urban infrastructure.  Also, there is a systematic denial of services and resources to the poor,   water, electricity or roads. The rich corner all for themselves. Can any pedestrian dare cross over at any point any of the busy roads like Madhya Marg or Dakshin Marg on foot? He must hire an auto or car to go across the road. This top heavy administration headed by a retired army general has spent huge sums of money in planning and had not cared to construct food bridges. Let the Administrator dare walk on foot from his cocooned palace to sector 17.

Urban transport policy in our country is skewed in favor of one class of roads users, car owners.  A study about the national capital Delhi shows cars transport only one in five road users while they dominate three - fourths of the road space. There is massive increase in private vehicles adding to traffic clogging. The average vehicle speed in cities is 22 km per hour. To address this challenge urban development agencies have rushed to widen roads and build flyovers, neglecting public transport. The recent policy changes to have buses and metro rail transport are only in a few major cities. These are not adequate and do not ensure equal opportunity for mobility for all.

This situation is dreadful and unacceptable. Apart from the daily butchery on the roads, it is causing pollution and bad health.  People find it difficult if not impossible to travel from one part to the other.

Loss of human life apart, the economic cost is colossal. According to a study published  by Forbes magazine [July 2009] in 2000, the cost of road accidents was Rs. 55,000 crore, or 3 percent of GDP. By taking into account higher fatalities (85,000) and increased cost of living. If we extrapolate this to 2007, when the cost of living had risen by 39 percent, the total cost exceeds Rs. 1 lakh crore. The real toll - fatalities are underreported by 5 per cent and injuries by half - could push the numbers even higher.

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Economics, the paradigm shift

Professor Vinod Anand

THERE always occur occasional shifts in the conventional wisdom that dominates a given discipline. Economics is no exception. Conventional wisdom is a part of our lives. It is set of  generally accepted customs and standards, based on good sense and judgment, that control both individual and social behaviorist exhibits both intra and inter-regional differentials, and passes informally from one generation to another, providing the guidelines within which families are brought up according to the given traditions. Conventional wisdom also changes with time, and reflects the changing scenario of our life-style with its varied ramifications.

The mainstream research in social sciences emanates from their conventional wisdom and provides yardsticks, both theoretically and empirically, for verifying the already existing theories and hypotheses, and also suggesting new hypotheses. It is through research, therefore, that conventional wisdom in any discipline undergoes a shift from one set of principles to another. Such shifts are normally gradual, but could be radical having wide and far-reaching effects. This happens when a field of study becomes marked by dissatisfaction and disillusionment. For example, conventional wisdom in economics had undergone a radical change with the advent of the Keynes’ economics during the thirties in the wake of long, wide and unprecedented depression, and there occurred a major shift from neoclassical orthodoxy of market system to Keynes’ work on economic theory and policy analysis centering around macro issues involving public works expenditure and other investments.

Established Keynesian economic doctrines of economic theory and policy of the earlier post-war years also underwent a radical change during the sixties and seventies. Some of the examples are follows:

• In the earlier post-war years the conventional wisdom held that government’s primary responsibility was to get the level of  total demand right,  high enough to ensure something close to full employment, but not so high as to cause inflation. The assumption was that if government got the demand side right, supply would take care of itself. But later, during the sixties, this doctrine was reversed with the new conventional wisdom, holding that if government gets the supply side right, demand will take care of it. This was in fact a revival of the neoclassical economic principles pursued in West Germany after the World War Two.
• A second change in the conventional wisdom was related to the relative importance of Fiscal Policy versus Monetary Policy. The earlier wisdom held that Fiscal Policy was government’s most powerful tool and, hence Monetary Policy should be subordinated to it. Conventional wisdom of the sixties asserted the reverse.
• Another shift affected efforts to stimulate business investment. The earlier wisdom held that investment in capital goods depended on what economists call the “accelerator”, showing a relationship between consumption and the capacity of industry to meet current or expected demands. The new wisdom saw interest-rates as the dominant force and warned that rising rates imperil investment.

A few other prominent shifts had started to emerge around the eighties, which, in recent times have become the core issues of the present-day economic thinking. This related to waiving the assumption of ‘exogeneity’ in the sphere of macroeconomics, and replacing it with the assumption of ‘endogeneity’. ‘Exogeneity’ refers to exogenous variables, which are determining (explanatory) and, as such, are given, whereas ‘endogeneity’ refers to endogenous variables, that have to be determined (explained), and, as such, are not given. Conventional wisdom, thus, moved from ‘exogeneity’ of certain crucial variables, essentially in the field of macroeconomics, to their ‘endogeneity’. One such crucial variable is the role of the State, which instead of being regarded as an exogenous variable is now regarded as an endogenous variable.  This shift has widened the frontiers of economics which now overlaps with other disciplines like Political Science, Sociology, and Psychology. The science of Economics has now a multi-disciplinary flavour, and we do not have an endless vista of interesting and relevant economic issues stretching before us. The mainstream conventional Economics now goes beyond its normal domains, and a number of economic realities have now started emerging essentially because of the failure of the State to perform its given role and to live up to the expectations of the people in terms of  basic economic and social provisions. The inclusion of  the role of the State as an endogenous variable shifts mainstream conventional Economics to what has now come to be known as the ‘New Political Economy’, which is the revised and updated version of  the historically known ‘Political Economy’ of the classical period. Unlike standard economic theory, it incorporates government’s impact on the economic system and its components, without going into the question of the development of political institutions and political processes. In fact, it accounts for the behaviour of the electorate, the government (legislature), and the bureaucracy.

In the time of the present-day global meltdown and recession, it appears that the Keynes’ prescriptions have come to light once again, and the paradigm shift has in fact gone back from the modern times to the thirties. Let us wish and pray that these prescriptions will work out and the whole world will become stable once again.

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Shift to plant based diets to avert water catastrophe

IN view of the impending drought perhaps we all need to do more. Here is something that may be of interest. The situation is already dire. The World Bank reported that 80 countries have water shortages that threaten health and economies, and over 2 billion people lack any access to sanitation or clean water.

In support of World Water Week, August 16-22, 2009, and the corresponding major conference in Stockholm, Sweden, the Veg Climate Alliance, an umbrella group of environmental, vegetarian, health, animal rights and other groups and activists, is urging a major societal shift toward plant-based diets to avoid a major water catastrophe.

In what some climate experts are calling the '"Century of Drought," many world regions are suffering from severe droughts, and they are causing widespread wildfires and serious food shortages. Aquifers are drying up in many areas and many rivers are not flowing to the sea during part of the year. Global warming, by reducing rain in some areas and causing severe storms in others, and by causing the rapid melting of glaciers that have been a major source of spring irrigation water, threatens to further deteriorate the situations.

In view of the above facts and more, it is scandalous that about half of the world's fresh water supply is used to raise animals, largely to irrigate lands growing feed crops. Animal-based diets require up to 14 times the water per person than vegan (completely plant-based) diets require. While estimates vary, according to UNESCO, the production of one pound of beef uses 15,500 liters of water, one pound of apples 700 liters and one pound of potatoes 900 liters.

Making matters worse, animal-based agriculture is a major polluter of water. Farmed animals in the U.S. alone produce over 1.3 billion tons of waste per year, or over 4 tons for every resident. Manure, laden with dangerous chemicals, is the most common pollutant in U.S. waters.

Growing water scarcity poses major threats. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said "water scarcity threatens economic and social gains and is a potent fuel for wars and conflict."

In addition to its very significant roles in consuming and polluting water, modern intensive 'livestock' agriculture is a major contributor to global warming. A UN Food and Agriculture Organization 2006 report (Livestock's Long Shadow') indicated that animal-based agriculture emits more greenhouse gases (18 percent in CO2 equivalents) than all the cars, planes, trains and other means of transportation worldwide combined (13.5 percent). Making matters still worse is that the UN report projects that, if present trends continue, the number of farmed animals will double in the next 50 years, adding to global warming and the consumption and pollution of water.

Based on the above alarming facts, it is essential that here be a major societal shift toward plant-based diets. Such a shift would have additional benefits, including improved human health, a reduction in deforestation, desertification, rapid species extinction, soil erosion and depletion and other environmental problems and a reduction in the current massive mistreatment of animals on factory farms.

In view of the above realities, we urge the organizers of the Stockholm World Water Week to put dietary changes on its agenda. It is essential that they and other world leaders help increase awareness that a major societal shift toward plant-based diets is essential to avoid catastrophes from water shortages and other threats to humanity.

Further information:
* about World Water Week: http://www.evana.org/index.php?id=38868&lang=en
* about Veg Climate Alliance: http://www.VegClimateAlliance.org
Richard H. Schwartz, Director, Veg Climate Alliance, Director@VegClimateAlliance.org

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