Gurpreet Singh writes from Vancouver

AT least two former Indian spies have rejected the CIA claim on David Headley, a suspected terrorist who was charged by the US authorities for the last year’s Mumbai attack. Headley who was charged for conspiring the 26/11 attack that left over 170 people dead in the financial capital of India was dubbed as ``double agent’’ of the Pakistani spy agency, ISI and the USA’s CIA.

While the CIA has claimed that Headley was not its agent, the former officers of India ’s Intelligence Bureau disagree. M.K. Dhar, the former joint director of the IB, who has authored many books out rightly rejected this claim saying, ``It’s a standard practice of the spy agencies. Whenever an agent is exposed, any spy agency would disown him’’. K.G. Subhramaniam, the former head of the research wing of the IB agreed. ``It is quite plausible that he was a double agent. Any agency whose spy stands exposed would react like that. After all the agencies cheat each other’’.

David Headley, who is of Pakistani heritage, was associated with the Lashkar-E-Toiba, an Islamic terrorist group blamed for the Mumbai attack. He was previously arrested and convicted for drug charges in USA . He was given smaller sentence after he entered a plea bargain. Since CIA and the ISI have worked together for years, there are speculations of his being a double agent. However, the CIA spokesperson, Marie Harf stated in an email, ``I can’t comment on an ongoing investigation, but any suggestion that this individual worked for the CIA is flat wrong.’’ She declined to give an interview on this subject and never answered the question about the CIA’s long association with the ISI which is accused of sponsoring terrorism in India.

The former ISI chief, Hamid Gul also refused to comment on these developments. His son told this correspondent that he does not want to talk about the David Headley case.

Dhar said that the CIA-ISI connections are not mysterious. ``The lion share of the ISI budget comes from the CIA. They together propped up Taliban to defeat Soviets in Afghanistan ’’. According to Subhramaniam, the double agent theory cannot be ruled out in Headley’s case as CIA has penetrated into the Indian spy agencies too.

BACK

A few basic principles of Economics

Vinod Anand

LIFE is a divine gift to us, and so are other conditions that help us live it. When we are born, the life span, whatever it is, is given and is exogenous, though unknown. The family, the place, the surroundings and the socio-economic conditions with which we get linked at the time of our birth are also given, and, as such, are exogenous, but known. Much, therefore, depends on how best we live our lives, given these exogenous (both unknown and known) factors. In fact, living life is more of an economic problem rather than biological, in the usual sense of scarcity and allocation. The word economy comes from the Greek word for “one who manages a household”. In fact, households and economic systems have much in common.

Both of these are guided by TEN basic principles. These are briefly mentioned below:

1. It is about the allocation of scare resources;
2. Most of the households and economic system quite often face many tradeoffs;
3. The concept of opportunity cost is also important. Its basic connotation is that the cost of something is what you give up to get it. This exercise is always there, no matter what you do. It differs from money and real cost. It arises from tradeoffs in the sense that making decisions requires comparing the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action. In many cases, however, the cost of some action is not very obvious as it might first appear. In fact, it is concealed and is not highly visible;
4. We must also see how to use marginal reasoning when making decisions. In fact, rational people think at the margin. Marginal changes are small incremental adjustments to a plan of action;
5. We must also consider how incentives affect people’s behaviour because rational agents respond to incentives. Decisions are made by comparing costs and benefits. Their behaviour may change when costs and benefits change;
6. We must also see why trade among people or nations can be good for everyone. This falls in the area of macro economics.
7. We must also discuss why markets are a good way to organize an economic activity. In this context, different markets are inter-linked either through income or prices or both. An economy that allocates resources through the decentralized decisions of many firms and households as they interact in markets for goods (tangible) and services (intangible). It is also true that when the markets fail due to several reasons, governments can sometimes eliminate the deformities and improve the market outcomes;
8. We must also know how the whole economy functions? In other words, we must also learn what determines some basic trends in the economy (like those of trade cycles, economic growth and equity indices, recession and upheavals in the overall economy). All these issues also fall in the periphery of macroeconomics. We must not forget that the overall standard of living or the well-being of the society depends on its ability to produce the required goods and services. The crucial point in this context is the productivity: the quantity of goods and services produced from each hour of a worker’s time;
9. We must also focus our attention on the fact that prices rise when the supply of money increases. Supply of money equals the quantity of money multiplied by the velocity of circulation of money. In other words, we must bother about what is termed as the inflationary pressure, as happened all over the world during 2008 which continues even now in many countries.
10. It should also be remembered that society faces a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Higher is the inflation rate, higher becomes the unemployment rate. This problem has to be tackled effectively through monetary and fiscal policies. This is well shown by the Phillips curve.

The above principles surely give us a taste of what economics is all about. As students of economics, we must master these insights, but there is one serious constraint that is generated by the “role of the State”, which is considered as an “exogenous” variable in the so-called conventional economics. But when we enter in the area of the “New Political Economy”, this variable becomes an “endogenous” variable. It is then that the economic prescriptions as recommended by the economists become policy-oriented, and percepts of economics become fully applicable.

But despite the constraint as mentioned above, we may conclude this brief write-up by saying that there is an economic way of thinking, and, thus, an economic way of life, which is not only scientifically sound in terms of association-causation, fallacy of composition, and ceteris paribus assumptions but also religiously truthful in terms of standard economic theories, prescriptions and predictions that determine our individual and collective behaviour in different circumstances and scenarios to make us happy, and to place us in that blissful state for which all humanity always aspires.

We must also be aware of the following:

1. See how economists apply the methods of science;
2. Consider how assumptions and models can shed light on the world;
3. Learn two simple models: The Circular Flow and the Production Possibility Frontier
4. Distinguish between Microeconomics and Macroeconomics;
5. Learn the difference between positive (what it is?) and normative (what it should be?) economics;
6. Examine the role of economists in policy formulation; and
7. Consider why economists sometimes disagree with one another.

It is heartening to note that over the years, economics has gone beyond its conventional frontiers. It is now a universal and infinite science.

BACK

Anatomy of Ludhiana burning

LUDHIANA is an important industrial centre and contributes in a big way to the economic prosperity of state. The workers from other states are the back bone of this productivity. It is important that a sense of justice must prevail among them, which is getting eroded in many ways. One is the sense of derogatory feeling against them by locals which must be stopped.

A Fact finding committee organized by Citizens for Justice comprising Prof Jagmohan Singh General Secretary Association for Democratic Rights , Dr Arun Mitra General Secretary Indian Doctors for Peace and development , Prof A K Maleri and Dr Harbans Singh office secretary and state committee member of AFDR respectively, Sardar Gurbant Singh and Sh Ramesh Rattan General Secretary and Chairman of Small Scale Industries and Trade association, respectively , Sh D P Maur General Secretary Joint council of Trade Unions , Dr Navjeet Kaur Convener of working women forum ,Sh Naval Chhibar and Ms. Avtar Kaur Advocates was formed to examine the events, visit affected areas and meet the victims as well as the eye witnesses.

Background: Ludhiana is industrial hub in north India and financial centre of Punjab. There are more than 5 lac workers from other states, who form the back bone of industrial progress. In the past many days there were dozens of cases of hit and loot of Industrial workers by Motor Cycle gangsters. Most of the victims were workers from other states. The police attitude has been not very sympathetic to the victims. The grimness of situation can be gauged from the fact that D S P Sardar Joginder Singh held a meeting of the Industrialists and victim Industrial workers on the morning of 3rd December to ensure them security. Still one of the residents of worker colony was injured and looted in the late evening of 3rd December, who is reported to have gone to the Dandari Kalan Police station to register his complaint but was refused.

On the other hand for the past few weeks the poster and hoarding campaign of the visit of Baba Ashutosh Maharaj of Divya Joyti Jagriti Sansthan (D J J S) on 4th , 5th and 6th Dec, was going on at a very large scale. He was to visit Ludhiana on the invitation of Bhartya Janta Party MLA Mr. Harish Bedi. DJJS has been in controversy since 2002 with Sikh organizations that involved Akal Takhat , SGPC and Minority Commission of India too. These bodies however had advised of constraints in holding public functions by DJJS. The controversy remained unresolved. But on the invitation of BJP MLA Harish Bedi, the permission to hold public programme was granted by Chief Minister. When some hard core Sikh organization objected to it the whole BJP leadership added its weight and conveyed to Chief Minister, that they will not moderate the scheduled programme.

The situation in Ludhiana was so tense that the visit of Chief Minister was postponed. BJP took it as an opportunity of consolidating the various Hindu organizations and hence vote bank after the Akali-BJP combine loss of Lok Sabha seat to Congress. On the other hand SGPC elections are being held in the near future in Punjab, so hard core Sikh organizations along with Mr. Parmjit Singh Sarna , President of DGPC , stationed themselves in Ludhiana to take advantage of the situation.

Thus 3rd December was a very trying day for administration in the light that DJJS was to hold a procession in the city from Guru Nanak Bhavan Civil Line to GLADA ground Chandigarh Road. The BJP MLA Mr. Bedi announced publically the adamancy to hold the procession. A number of Sikh organizations mostly from Ludhiana organized a dharna in front of the house of Sardar Avtar Singh Makkar President SGPC, who also called for a ban on this programme.

Under these circumstances on 3rd December issue of not registering the complaint came handy to some miscreants who excited the masses to burn two cars and a truck on the G T Road near Dhandari. As per FIR 313 dated 3rd Dec,2009 ,which was recorded at 8.25 pm. The complainant is HC Gurmit Singh who was on duty at police post Dandari Kalan. The persons who has been nominated by name are Satamber Thakur, Chitranjan, Prem kumar Pande, Suba Lal, Sudarshan kumar , Varinder , Vinod Kumar, Arvind Kumar and Babu Lal along with 50 to 60 persons. It may be noted that Mr. Saptamber Thakur is a leaders of Sharomini Akali Dal Youth wing , (a wing of the ruling party).

These events helped the District Administration to negotiate at around 11 pm , that night with both warring groups, making BJP to yield and accept that no procession of DJJS will be held on 4th Dec and programme will be reduced to one instead of two days . The local Sikh organizations agreed to the proposal of administration and issued a statement of thanks for the ruling government.

On the other hand at mid night the police entered the Worker Colony near Sudarshan Kariyana Store at Chhotti Dandari and picked up 41 persons including three children. The committee could see the bottle of liquor and riot protection gear( Chhajja) left behind by some policeman. The worker told that many of those arrested were picked up from homes while they were asleep.

This area is close to the Dhandari Police Station. No relatives of the arrested persons were informed even in the morning and no police patrol was available in this area on the 4th Morning. Such irresponsible behavior of the police gave easy space for many types of rumors about the ‘ missing’ persons, which caused excitement among the people. As a result many people started gathering in the morning. It is apparent from reports available that police messed up the whole affair in handling this gathering. It took free assistance of some Local goons who carried naked swords and lathis in their hands to push back the mob which was mostly of workers from other states.

In the mean time on the G T Road mob collected and near noon about dozens of vehicles were set on fire. The administration was more busy with the security of ground where DJJS was to hold gathering.

The attitude of police was callous as it let the vehicles burn. But later the police is reported to have fired 500 rounds causing injury to two workers , beating 77 and arresting 100 of them. One of the victim of bullet injury later has been recognized as Amir Hasan , who while returning from his Juma Nimaz was caught in the mob. He later died for lack of immediate medical help. Though some press photographers claimed to be there but committee could not get hold of record as to who actually put these vehicles on fire. Committee found that reinforcement came only after 4 pm from Phillore training centre which is just 20 Km away. This shows that police administration did not responded adequately, the reason of which needs to be found. A thorough enquiry can only help , if such failure is to be avoided in future and the peace in the city is to be ensured.

As confirmed by eye witnesses examined by the committee, around noon some persons in private along with police persons entered into Ishwar Nagar and Prem Nagar colonies. They indiscriminately attacked persons injuring them, looting and burning. The very first causality of the mob was a tea shop run by of a lady. This has been reduced to ashes. There were still many burnt vehicles and Rehris lying in this area. This mob accompanying police was armed with rods, lathis and swords.

They poked into the GI sheet doors of the houses with sharp weapons. They looted shops and quarters and later burnt these. In these colonies, around dozens of shops were reduced to ashes and around four dozen houses which were looted and burnt. Similarly on the GT Road side from Dhandari station to Jugiana more than two dozen quarters near Mittal Kanda were ransacked, looted and burnt. At the time of committee visit still burnt vehicles were there in the yard. The shop on the road side were looted and burnt. Committee found that these vehras ( cluster of one room quarters) are now deserted. Here also these rioters were supported by some policemen. Most of the occupants have left for their home places.

The persons who were injured by this group and arrested by police on 4th were not provided any medical help. They were released in the night in that very condition. Some of such injured persons appeared before the committee and narrated their story.

In the evening curfew was imposed in some areas of Ludhiana. But BJP MLA Mr. Harish Bedi called press conference and announced that programme by DJJS will be held as per schedule even after such worst situation in Ludhiana.

Police has recorded a brief FIR number 314 dated 4th December which is recorded at 12.45 pm. It states that few vehicles are burnt and mob has been controlled. This has been registered by Mr.Pardip Singh Inspector incharge Police station Focal Point Ludhiana.

Though curfew was imposed but was implemented in a half hearted way and allowed the small groups of armed persons from out sides to collect in city, who moved in due to provocative statement of BJP MLA Mr. Bedi.

Thus hard core Sikhs from other parts of state rushed in small groups to the city. Here also administration was very lax to check these groups to enter city that entered waving swords in their hands, where as the common citizen’s movement was totally stopped. The curfew did deny immediate medical treatment to a person named Amir Hasan who was injured in police firing , bullet entering through back and piercing intestines in the firing by Police on 4th December noon. He died on 8th due to infection caused by this bullet injury. This information was learnt by the committee from doctors who attended him.

Now on 5th December the tension was among hard core Sikh organizations who organized themselves in Pheruman Gurdawara on GT Road in the heart of city. These included Damdami Taksal , Baba Ranjit Singh Dhadrian and others. They marched towards the place of congregation of DJJS. Police finally had to open fire to stop this group , causing death of one Darshan Singh who had come on the call of Dhadrian Baba and injuring around six persons.

The next day was totally closed on the call of these hard core organizations. The curfew continued. The events of looting of past day made the workers and villagers alert against the bikers. On Daba Luhara road , in Laxmi nagar even curfew did not deter bikers from roaming about. The alert villagers and the workers jointly caught hold of them and handed over to the Police. The villagers and workers confirmed that they were involved in looting them. Police is reported to have confirmed that those arrested had been involved in such anti social activities in the past too.

This event shows that the social fabric is still strong which averted any further escalation of situation in the city. The administration has come on record that the events were initiated under some conspiracy but had not clarified this further.

Ludhiana is an important industrial centre and contributes in a big way to the economic prosperity of state. The workers from other states are the back bone of this productivity. It is important that a sense of justice must prevail among them, which is getting eroded in many ways. One is the sense of derogatory feeling against them by locals which must be stopped.

The mob excited by emotions results in a very fanatic response which is always damaging. This can be overcome only if they organize themselves and are educated regularly about social responsibility.
Committee, on examining from all sides is of the conclusion that:

1. The workers are gripped with fear and are desperate to leave Ludhiana with families; hence confidence restoring steps needs to be taken immediately, which include assessing the loss suffered by them due to looting and burning of their shops, houses and vehicles and suitably compensating them. This is essential to help them start their earning immediately.
2. The rioters and the police men in whose presence this looting and burning of the shops and houses has taken place should be brought to book. This is essential to restore the confidence of workers into the administration and deter the anti social elements from such actions.
3. As the administration has confessed that the unfortunate events were part of a conspiracy, hence it is essential that judicial enquiry by no less than High Court judge is held. It is essential as the partners of ruling group cannot absolve themselves of the cause of events.
4. As on the night of 3rd December, many of the worker arrested were from the houses in the mid of night which include minors, the cases against them should be withdrawn.
5. The family, whose member, has died due to bullet injury should be compensated by Rs 5 lac and one person be given job as decided by Punjab Government in a similar case.
6. The registration of complaints should be assured and prompt action should be taken to redress the security problems of the workers.

[Citizens Forum for Justice, Enquiry report on Ludhiana events during December 2009]

BACK

Year 2009: The end of the American era and the beginning of Asia’s Century

Sawraj Singh

THE end of the year 2009 and the first decade of the 21st century show that America’s status as the only superpower of the world has ended and the era of the western domination of the world has also ended. China has clearly emerged as an economic superpower and the manufacturing center of the world. Whereas the western economies took a big beating because of the recession, the Chinese economy grew by more than 9% in the year 2009.

If we consider the most important happenings of the decade, then the 9/11 attacks on America stand out to be the most widely accepted important event of the decade. Many people believe that the rise of China is also one of the most important events of the decade. The election of a black man as President of America was also one of the most significant developments of the decade, but unfortunately, in the year 2009, it appears that a majority of white Americans are having difficulty accepting a black person as the leader of their country. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are also very important happenings. Similarly, the war in Pakistan against terrorism along with the war in Afghanistan is probably going to be the deciding war of the era. The outcome of the war will do the same thing to America and the west what it did for the Soviet Union.

The fastest bullet train between Hong Kong and Beijing did the same thing for China in 2009 what the Beijing Olympics did in 2008. These are the biggest symbols of the rising power of China and the declining influence of the West. Michael Jackson’s death and Tiger Woods’ fall from grace were clear messages that in the American capitalist system, instability and uncertainty can affect the highest achievers, particularly if they are minorities. Nobody in this system can feel safe, stable, or secure.

Many people feel that people in the third world countries are unsafe, unstable, and insecure and one of the incentives for migration from the third world countries to the western countries is that people feel that they are safer, more stable, and more secure in the western countries. However, this is an illusion. While it may be true that physically, you may be at less risk, but overall, you become more unstable and more insecure. The capitalist system disintegrates the family structure.

The family plays a big role in making an individual stable and secure. The capitalist system breeds insecurity because of its belief that if people feel secure, then they become complacent and lose the urge to be more productive. Therefore, the feeling of insecurity makes them more productive.

The recession did not affect India as badly as it affected the western countries and the Indian economy grew more than 6%. India gained more status in the world in the year 2009. Dr. Manmohan Singh’s visit to America showed that even though nothing much substantial was achieved, yet the way he was received clearly showed the enhanced status of India in the world. However, India has not clearly chosen sides between the East and the West. Japan, on the other hand, under the leadership of Yukio Hatoyama, seems clearly tilting to the East. After being elected as Prime Minister of Japan, Hatoyama has advanced the concept of an East Asian community on the pattern of the European Union. Hatoyama has made history by publicly stating his objective to expel all American troops from Japan.

England continues to decline. The French and German economies were already larger than the British economy. But in the year 2009, even the Italian economy surpassed England, pushing the British economy into the fourth place in Europe and the eighth place in the world. Russia’s influence, under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, in Europe and the world continues to grow. America has decided to retract the decision to install a new missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia perceived this system to be directed against it and strongly objected.

America was unable to change the outcome of the Presidential election in Iran. The Iranian government continues to maintain anti-American and anti-Israeli policies. At this point, the pro-Western opposition in Iran seems to be risking strong retaliation, including a risk of massacre. This may be a reversal of the roles; in Indonesia and Chile, the pro-American forces massacred the leftist and patriotic forces.

Cuba and Venezuela are firmly uniting to counter the American influence in Latin America. Hugo Chavez has emerged as the strongest and most vocal opponent of the American policies. Even Mexico seems to be challenging America and the religious right by becoming the first Latin American nation to legalize gay marriage.

Africa’s relation with China continues to become closer. China is helping Africa to get rid of the traditional western hold on its economy. In spite of some regional conflicts, overall, Africa is moving towards greater unity and is asserting independence from the west.

Australia has made significant change from John Howard’s pro-American, anti-third world, and overtly racist policies. Kevin Rudd, the new Prime Minister, continues to cement closer relations with China and the East. His fluency in Mandarin (Chinese language) and his college degree in Chinese studies are helping Australia to move closer to China.

The Climate Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark could not achieve much and was unable to narrow the differences between the developing and the developed countries. It has been clearly established that global warming is the result of increased human activity, while the population of the world continues to increase. The main reason for the uncontrolled growth of the population is the capitalist system itself because it looks at people as if they were a commodity which can be exploited to maximize profits.

One can only hope that the fall of the western capitalist system will lead to an alternate model of development, which will be based upon the collective wisdom of mankind and will include the wisdom of the East, which has been ignored in the last two centuries.

[The writer is Chairman, Washington State Network for Human Rights]

BACK