Gobind Thukral

REPRESENTATIVES of 193 countries and heads of states or senior ministers of 120 countries along with the experts spent 15 days in Copenhagen capital of Denmark finally to skip the catastrophic climate change crisis that threatens the very existence of the earth. Those volunteers who could manage to reach the city to urge the leaders to take monumental decisions to save the world were either kicked around or greeted with water canons. Many were beaten and arrested.

Finally, an agreement was reached between America and four other important countries from the developing world-India, China, Brazil and South Africa, leaving others protesting. Even this agreement was only noted to end the grueling sessions of the conference.

It was not an inspiring affair. The Copenhagen climate summit falls far short of what the nations of the world, particularly the industrialised countries, absolutely need to do to combat global warming. The Copenhagen Accord, the product of personal negotiations between President Obama and the political leaders of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, marked the end-run of a concerted U.S. strategy to corner the major developing economies in the climate negotiations.

The result of these 15 days of tough negotiations was a political commitment not a treaty. And it was worked out by the United States with China, India, Brazil and South Africa . The rest of the conference simply “took note of it,” most with resignation, many with anger. The words sound fine enough. “We emphasise our strong political will to urgently combat climate change.” And: “We shall, recognising the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2{+0}C, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our long-term co-operative action to combat climate change.”

The terms suggest that these four countries have tried their best to resist the core strategy of the developed nations to set aside the Kyoto Protocol in its entirety and to alter the architecture of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These countries from the developing world have ensured that the Accord has less than full formal recognition. It remains an accord between interested parties that is “taken note of” and “operationally commits” only those that declare their adherence.

There is no doubt that the developing countries did make some significant concessions in exchange. The Accord postpones any global quantitative commitment to climate mitigation, particularly any commitment to drastic emissions reduction by the developed nations. It pays disproportionate attention to the responsibilities of developing countries. The most serious import of these concessions is evident from the assessment that the current global mitigation effort allows for a significant probability that global temperature rise will reach 3 degrees Celsius. The report further observes that in the mitigation commitments currently made, the contribution of developing countries is greater than that of the developed countries. The cry of many small developing countries, that the promise of $100 billion in annual climate finance by 2020 amounts to asking them to trade their future “for thirty pieces of silver today,” is a call to conscience that must not be ignored.

It is arguable that in the state of play at Copenhagen, the developing nations had little room to ensure drastic emissions reductions by developed countries without risking the total collapse of the summit. The U.S. came with no offer of enhanced commitments nor were the others willing to bring this issue to the fore. From the ranks of the developed countries, there was no attempt to stand up to American high-handedness, typified by Obama’s take-it-or-leave-it speech. The later lament of the European Union that the Copenhagen Accord missed out on ambitious emission reduction targets need not be taken seriously. The political challenge, especially for India and China, is to redefine the task of drastic emissions reduction globally, led by the developed nations. The climate laggards in the developed as well as developing world need to be pushed aside in a dialogue that has both the scientific case and the ethical imperative in focus. This demands a stronger display of political will that goes beyond firm negotiating stances and forces all major players in mitigation action to do their due share for humanity.

Communist Party of India (Marxist) general secretary Prakash Karat and Arun Jaitley of the BJP and other parties are not wrong when they say that India has conceded too much to America. And now it can force these countries to prove that their emission levels are reduced. They have termed the Accord as disappointing. America and other developed countries adopted tactics to prevent any such decision, and pursued the path of trying to go back on the Kyoto Protocol commitment. The rich developed world consuming maximum energy resources were not ready for deep cuts in emissions, but sought to impose such cuts on developing countries. Indian minister Jairam Ramesh admitted of concessions but said these had to be given in order to save the world. But India made a mistake and agreed without getting reciprocal commitments on deep cuts by the developed countries. Since the UPA government had announced unilateral cuts before the negotiation, India lost its bargaining power.

But one must admit that the united resistance put up by developing countries, which prevented America and other developed countries from achieving their complete aim, was a positive outcome in Copenhagen. These developed countries had planned to force deep cuts on developing world without touching their high level of energy consumption. America alone consumes 46 per cent of the total energy of the world while India and China, two most populated countries hardly touch 10 per cent.

The clause on international consultation and analysis of unsupported mitigation actions by the countries — for which the guidelines are yet to be finalised — would be the most difficult task. The Accord was a process that would continue through the next year and culminate in Mexico City at the 16th session of the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The most difficult and contentious task will be the finalisation of guidelines for the international consultation and analysis of the mitigation actions, which will now be drafted while respecting national sovereignty.

BACK

Climate change: History was not made

Stephen Leahy

THERE is no Copenhagen climate treaty. History was not made here and no deal was sealed. After two years of intense negotiations by 193 countries, what is abundantly clear is the enormous divide between the rich and poor countries. Poor countries want deep cuts in emissions by the industrialised world, and the latter continue to resist significant cuts and legally binding targets.

Despite the enormous pressures, high expectations and last minute efforts by 128 heads of state, all that emerged is a vague agreement of sorts called the "Copenhagen Accord".

"Sealing the deal" on a new climate treaty has been postponed for at least a year.

Speaking of divides, civil society largely calls Copenhagen an utter disaster. It is a failure that "condemned millions of the world’s poorest people to hunger, suffering and loss of life", said Nnimmo Bassey, chair of Friends of the Earth International. On the other hand, U.S. President Barack Obama argued that a "meaningful and unprecedented breakthrough" had been made at press conference in the Bella Centre just before midnight Friday. "All major economies have come together to accept their responsibility to take action to confront the threat of climate change," he said.

Evidently, world leaders hadn't been paying much attention to the previous 15 years of climate treaty negotiations.

"Heads of state are now fully engaged," agreed Robert Orr, U.N. assistant secretary general for policy planning, speaking at a press conference. "Copenhagen was the first time leaders were using the climate vocabulary."

"This has put climate on the map for leaders and leaders on the map for climate," he said.

Orr also said the gap between politics and science is finally beginning to close.

The hour is late for waking up to the reality of climate change. Two new scientific studies suggest that climate feedbacks will make the two-degree C target unlikely to be achieved without "going negative" - meaning not only does the world have to go carbon-free in the coming decades, carbon will need to be removed from the atmosphere to lower concentrations to perhaps 350 ppm from today's 389 ppm.

It was late last night in the final hours of the meeting when the U.S. president announced that India, South Africa, China and Brazil had agreed to a backroom agreement called the Copenhagen Accord.

However, since it only involved five out of the 193 countries whose officials had spent a long two weeks in Copenhagen, some delegates were visibly upset they'd not been involved previously and the meeting continued all night. By Saturday afternoon, confusion remained over the accord's legal status, and half a dozen nations, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Bolivia, declined to support it.

In the end, the accord has no legal standing under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and participating countries merely "note" its existence and express their support or not.

Friday night, Obama acknowledged that this was just one step on a long road to meet the apolitical targets of climate science. He insisted the Copenhagen Accord is an important first step because countries agreed to deep long-term cuts in emissions with the goal of holding the increase in global temperatures below two degrees C.

Developing countries also agreed to take both voluntary action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase those actions if financial support was provided. And there was agreement that rich countries must mobilise 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to help developing countries protect their forests, adapt to climate change and reduce their emissions.

They also agreed to work towards a legally binding treaty to be concluded by the end of next year in Mexico.

"The U.S. is not legally bound by anything that took place here in Copenhagen," Obama was careful to point out.

Domestically, the United States is a divided country, and a long way from making binding commitments on climate.

Not an hour after Obama's opening speech to the plenary Friday morning, several Republican members of Congress and the Senate held a press conference in the Bella Centre denying climate change was caused by emissions of fossil fuels and saying the science of the International Panel on Climate Change and dozens of scientific academies around the world was suspect.

None of the U.S. politicians are scientists and all hail from regions with powerful fossil fuel or automotive interests.

"We have lost many things along the way," said Dessima Williams of Grenada, spokesperson for the 43-member Association of Small Island States (AOSIS), regarding their reluctant acceptance of the accord. "We have lost a vigourous commitment to stabilising global temperatures at 1.5 C."

"We believe this is critical to the survival of our member states," Williams said in a final plenary session Saturday.

Women were also hoping for gender-sensitive text to acknowledge the reality that women are by far the most impacted by climate change, said Ana Rojas of Energia, an International Network of Gender and Sustainable Energy based in the Netherlands.

Only a third of the delegates attending the conference this year are women, which can make it more difficult for equal representation of women and men's views in relation to climate change.

"We need a shared vision of gender in a final agreement. And not just concerning adaptation but also mitigation and financing," Rojas told TerraViva.

While acknowledging that the accord represents some progress, it fell far short of the "fair, ambitious and legally binding agreement" that civil society had advocated. Outside the meetings, 1,800 protesters and media spokespersons were arrested on the suspicion they might do something illegal, in what civil society called attempts by the Danish government to suppress legitimate opposition and free speech.

The use of "tear gas, pepper spray, mass cages, baton charges and mass preemptive arrests sets a precedent dangerous not only for Denmark, but for the future of the world," said Tadzio Müller of Climate Justice Action, an international network of environmental and social justice groups.

"The world is facing tragic crises of leadership [on climate change]," said Greenpeace's international executive director, Kumi Naidoo.

The accord represents a "major concession to climate polluting industries, especially in the fossil fuel sector", Naidoo said. "Averting climate chaos has just gotten a whole lot harder." [Courtesy IPS]

BACK

Sleeping with the enemy

H. K. Dua

TEXT of the maiden speech H.K. Dua, Member of Parliament (Rajya Sabha) & Editor-in-Chief, The Tribune in the Rajya Sabha on November 25,2009

Shri H.K. Dua (Nominated): Mr Deputy Chairman, Sir, over 45 years ago, I was in the Press Gallery above where I started my Parliamentary reporting. In these 45 years, I have travelled a distance of 10 yards to avail. These have been crucial ten yards to reach here. Thank you, very much for giving me a chance to speak here, Mr Deputy Chairman.

In this maiden speech as you said, I dedicate myself to the service of the House and the country and the values for which both stand for.

Sir, I have gone through the Bill. It is well-meant, but I find it limited in scope and range. It tackles some of the minor glitches that have come to the notice of the Election Commission and other glitches, which have been noticed in the 57 years of the nation’s electoral experience. But these 57 years have thrown up major challenges before the electoral system and if we don’t meet those challenges, the electoral system will come into disrepute and that will pose a threat to the democracy also. The Bill does not prescribe ways to meet these challenges.

I will just mention two of them. One has been – Members have been rightly trying to focus on – the role of big money in elections. It is a serious problem. I would like to draw the attention of the House to it – the Minister and Members know about this more than me – how criminals are threatening the electoral system and the functioning of the democracy in the country.

Sir, criminals in large numbers are infiltrating into the political system. In many Assembly elections they have used their money and muscle. Earlier, they were supporting the candidates and now they themselves are the candidates. And many of them are getting elected. In many states, they are getting elected in large numbers, or they are helping the candidates of different parties to win elections by using their muscle power or money – which they extract again from the people – get into the government and influence policy-making and the decision-making of the State Governments.

At the ground level – Members would know more than me because they have a fairly long experience – the voters are afraid of the criminals and their gangs and that fear makes the voter vote for the mafia leader. Mafia leaders thus get into the Assembles where count number. When the Government is formed, again, these people influence the formation of the Government, or toppling of the Government, at times.

As you know, even one vote can make a difference in the survival of a Government. If a single vote goes the other side, the Government can be thrown out.

The bureaucracy in the States is afraid of these criminal leaders, because they have clout with top people in many States. There is no need to mention the names here. The bureaucracy is afraid, because they will be transferred or any enquiry commission will be instituted against them. So they would not take any action against the criminals active in politics. Police officials are also afraid of taking action against criminals and mafia leaders. When criminal leaders have clout with a Chief Minister and the local bureaucracy is very deferential to them, governance in the districts is bound to suffer. Crime rate has gone up in these areas. The law and order is under threat. And, the developmental activities are also coming to a halt in some of the districts.

The criminals again have association with wrong kind of elements. So, the entire atmosphere gets polluted because of their activities. There is indeed a failure of the system to check their entry into the system. If this continues, imagine, if they capture a State. And then they will capture more States.

And some of the criminal groups can always form some sort of a syndicate – I am looking at the dark side – they can get together to form a syndicate and, either tomorrow or after five, or 10 years or 20 years, they can capture the States and even become a threat to the stability at the Centre. I have this fear.

The political parties need to do something about it urgently. They have to come to a consensus on how to ban the criminals at the entry stage itself.

Many parties are not stopping criminals from getting into the political mainstream, because they want to win elections, they want to use their muscle power. Then they give them seats without realising that tomorrow these people will devour the parties themselves. That is the danger not only to the country but also the political parties themselves.

What can the parties do? – Just ban their entry. There is no point in looking for security while sleeping with the enemy. They are enemies of the country. And, they are enemies of the parties themselves. The best thing is, avoid them and shun them, even if you lose an election. That price is worth paying. It is better than sleeping with the enemy.

Many people have been warning the parties against criminals. The Hon. Supreme Court made a suggestion to the Election Commission that it should take steps to prevent nomination of criminals for elections and it is the right of every citizen to know the history of every criminal.

Banning criminal candidate from filing their nomination papers when charges have been framed by a court is the right thing to do. The police can frame false charges. But, if a court frames charges, then it is the time that nomination paper should not be allowed to be filed by a person who has a criminal record, particularly if the offences can fetch a two year-sentence.

The Election Commission was in favour of it. They called a meeting of political parties. It is strange that almost all the political parties opposed this provision. One of their arguments was that frivolous charges can be farmed and even the court can approve of those frivolous charges and whosoever is in the opposition stands at a disadvantage if the charges turn out to be false.

I am sure; Mr Moily’s legal acumen and advice of this officials can find a way out and provide a safeguard against the framing of charges which are mala fide.

There should be an attempt by political parties to ban criminals at entry stage itself. There should be a serious attempt to ensure – where the charges are framed by a court law – to ban the entry of criminals into the election system by filing a nomination paper and getting elected.

There should be some safeguards to get over this particular objection. I am sure, Mr Moily, who seems to be a very earnest Minister in doing things, would include this in the comprehensive reforms he is promising to bring forward. I hope he brings these reforms soon to take care of this serious problem. Not doing at this stage will prove costly for the country and the political system. This problem is growing like cancer, because with every election – various NGOs have collected this information and the Election Commission does not deny these figures – the number of candidates fighting the elections is growing, and not going down. Some of the parties are able to deny the tickets to criminals, but others are not able to deny them the tickets.

But, in totality, their number is growing. If they capture the political system, what will be the fate of Indian democracy?

BACK

Memories of New Year and Reflections on 2010

Bal Anand

I have to summon the deepest recesses of my thoughtfulness to recollect how and when the concept of calendar related Time had got registered in my mind for the first time. I think it was it was in the winter of 2007 Vikrami Samvat ie around January 1950.My father had got a register printed to keep a record of the patients he had to treat and Samvat 2007 was prominently indicated at its top.

I was then a student of second grade in the Primary school of a village lying at a distance of 30 km from Ludhiana. The Gregorian Calendar-popularly called Issvi or Masihi Saal-was to be a part and parcel of work a day of my life as student when I joined the Mahatama Gandhi Memorial National High School in the neighboring town of Ahmedgarh in the3rd grade in May 1951.It is interesting to recall that in a test given in our 4th grade class, we were asked to calculate the exact age of Mahatma Gandhi-78 years, 3months and 28 days it was! The more the calendar years of lives / period of rule of kings and other historical events one could commit to memory, the brighter were considered to be his chances to do better in the examination.

Time reckoned in its tiniest unit-say a breath- turning into minutes, hours ,days ,weeks ,months and years would seem to be the most pervasively intimate, inevitable and ultimate measure of all the animate and inanimate phenomena that human beings are capable of experiencing. I recall that I had read a touching poetic account of time related to the turn of a year by Editor Jeet Singh Seetal in the January 1965 issue of Panjabi Duniya, a high quality literary journal which survives till today-being a publication Govt. of Panjab, it has not to suffer under slavery of subscribers! Taking inspiration from this editorial, I had spoken in my Tutorial Group-as a student of MA Part-II in Govt, College, Ludhiana-elaborating on the element of time in our lives and surveying briefly the national and international events of the past year. This exercise remained an interesting pastime during the few years I served as a lecturer in colleges. The habit was to prove immensely useful in my career as a diplomat.
Diplomats are compulsive exchangers of greetings on the New Year with beautiful national motifs/symbols printed on the cards. Several printers in Delhi have flourished in the business of new year cards for the large local Diplomatic Community & the Indian Diplomats posted abroad.

The e-mail era might have adversely affected this tradition.As Ambassador to Panama,I had sent special cards in 1998 with the photo of the local Minister and myself releasing special Postal stamp to mark the Golden Jubilee of Independence Of India and in 1999 with the photo of the newly purchased Chancery building. In Armenia,I used Mirza 'Ghalib's poem,' Ibn-e- Mariam huaa kare Koee; Mere Dukh Ki Dawa Kare Koee...' with its translation in English and Armenian and my photo with Pope Paul II during his visit to Armenia in 2001 to mark 1700 years of adoption of Christianity as a state religion in Armenia .Due to some mechanical problem 800 cards- instead of 400 ordered-were printed and the firm did not generously charge me extra!

The wider distribution of cards proved a big publicity for India's composite culture. The cards for 2003 in New Zealand, the year of the First Ascent of Everest by Sir Edmund Hillary & Tenzing Norgay, carried an impressionable painting of Himalaya by my son, English of verses from Kumarasambavh of Kalidasa glorifying Himalaya and photo of Sir Edmund Hillary and Lady June Hillary with me and my family at Republic Day Reception. The card was very well received by the Kiwis and the local Indian Community.

When I was Ambassador to Panama, I had attempted a longish letter in Dec 1995 to intimate friends, 'The Old Year Changeth ,Yielding the New Reflections' To quote from it," The phenomenon of the calendar year and the related run of of events-personal, in India and in the world have been occasion for some sort of introspection on my part; the process has been getting deeper and more intense with the passage of years...the most extraordinary feeling is, perhaps, how quickly Time seems to pass...Panama Canal- inaugurated on August 15,1914-has not only been a metaphor of man's daring the Nature by engineering feats...For four hundred years ,the kings, the sailors, the engineers, and geographers had been dreaming of joining the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans...I could make use of the meeting in Buenos Aires with Prime Minister of Indian Ambassadors in Latin America to pay brief visits Lima, Santiago, Rio De Janerio and Caracas.

The travels underlined for me the vivid realities of the chequered history of this huge land mass...Brazil has been described as 'awakening' giant...Rao said, "The next century belongs to Asia, Africa and Latin America"...As for the Indian scene, the strangest political alignments and splits seem to be imparting dynamism and vitality of their own to the democratic polity..."
The period of the last six years since retirement in my nest in East Delhi has been the longest at one location since I left Father's rented house in a small town of Panjab to be a college lecturer in August 1966.Now as a senior citizen of the largest democracy, I have been keen to remain,' for ever a keen student'. The turn of the year is an opportunity for a cultivated mind to look around, back and forward. The first decade of 21st century has indeed been disturbingly momentous for planet earth in terms of 'mercury rising'-the warmest since temperature records began in 1850! The fast 'power shift from the West to the East', according a perceptive analyses in the Crest Edition of Times of India on 26 Dec, poses the 1.2 Billion -People question: what will be India's share of the Asian Century? While India has registered a high rate of GDP growth for the decade and has been high on the tech-wave, it is tellingly pointed out that India has the largest -almost one third -of the world's under-nourished.

The complex political and social challenges within the polity would need to be managed with extraordinary skills and a broader vision, rising above the narrow electoral gains. The foreign policy ,especially relations with Pakistan, China and the USA ,would require to be carefully balanced taking into account national security and long range strategic interests.

Coming again to the calendar related New Year, it would be useful to recall that India had adopted on March 22,1957,Saka Samvat 1879,currently 1931, as the National Calendar; one can listen to it on All India Radio ,read it in official documents and communications by the Govt. of India! The most scientific Solar calendar of Iran with New Year accurately falling on 21st of March is attributed to mathematician-astronomer-philosopher Omar Khayyam, remembered famously now for his Rubaiyat-Poetical Quatrains- rendered much later in English by Edward Fitzgerald. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi had introduced ,in 1976, Shahanshahi-Imperial-Calendar, changing Islamic Year 1355 to 2535 based on birth of ancient Persian Emperor ,Cyrus the Great(559BC to 576 BC)-how the Shah was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution led by Imam Khomeini within 1000 days of of the new calendar is an epoch of modern history! Time will always have the last laugh in the history of this universe!!

BACK