EVER since 1991 when the wheel of so called reforms was set rolling, Indian leaders with some exception started neglecting agriculture sector. Industry, commerce, service sector and financial markets became the darling. More of public spending was in that direction. These sectors are important in their own way, but should they be developed at the cost farm sector is a serious question. Spending on irrigation, farm research and farm development have a woeful tale of neglect. The wages of neglect are there for all to rue. At one level the farmers, particularly those growing cash crops are resorting to suicides and at another level prices of what the farmers produce are rising by leaps and bounds. How could farmers unable to clear their debt commit suicides if their produce was fetching higher prices? Surely those one lakh and fifty thousand farmers who ended their lives found the situation hopeless. And, the prime minister keeps repeating that India needs a second green revolution.

Such long-term thinking is really quite misplaced when the ground reality is stark and not so cheery. No doubt, India is going to have a better future than most other countries, but the government is not taking bothered about what is important for the happiness and security of the common person or aam admi in the years ahead. Are food prices and job security not the most worrisome issues for aam admi? Controlling food prices is not so difficult if past experience is any guide, because the government can easily enhance and extend the public distribution system so that the poor are protected. Creating jobs may be difficult. But not impossible. The cases of China or Malaysia are before us.

Agriculture will be a weakest area this year because there is to be a shortfall in rice production by over 13 million tonnes due to deficient rainfall of 22 per cent. Agricultural growth is crucial for total growth because 70 crore people live in the rural areas. Due to the drought this year, agricultural growth is going to decline by at least 1 to 2 per cent. Did the all important minister for agriculture, Sharad Pawar has any idea about this. He can only blame different states.

Agricultural production the world over is incapable to cope with the world demand for food. It started with the agricultural land getting diverted to produce of ethanol. The global demand cannot match the supply of foodgrains and prices are bound to shoot up. In India, too, from that time onwards, food prices have been rising. What is our planning to feed the hungry millions? Already starvation reports are pouring in from different parts of the country.

Another factor responsible for high food prices is excess liquidity. It is more so in order to meet the current fiscal crisis. Prices are bound to rise. People also got extra incomes through the three stimulus packages and government salaries were hiked, tax rebates granted and dearness allowances raised. Excess liquidity means more of speculation and hoarding which accentuate food price inflation. Hoarders have been amply rewarded through food inflation. A weak and corrupt public distribution system is unable take any burden.

India shall have to invest heavily in agriculture, especially in irrigation facilities and power, and only then can there be a rise in productivity. Food self-sufficiency is a goal that ranks high for a huge poor country like India. There is threat to our sovereignty. Thus our stake in enhancing agricultural production is very high.

Experts say, “Its hands, however, are tied because of the ballooning fiscal deficit which is high at 6.8 per cent of the GDP. There has to be more money in the government’s coffers in order to increase public investment in agriculture. It can do so if it consolidates its expenditure and withdraws its stimulus package. But how should it exit from its stimulus package without disturbing economic recovery? For example, car makers have been flourishing because people have been spending their extra money on cars and other consumer durables.”

Agricultural growth of about 4 per cent and investment is thus of highest importance, but the government is in a bind because it has to find resources for a quantum increase in public investment in agriculture. It has to transfer resources to agriculture in the form of new investment.

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